NFL: Recap Week 11/Week 12 Key Matchups

It was a really fun day of games on Sunday. A lot of coin flip games late really provided great entertainment.

Recap Week 11

• Eagles Grab The East – The Eagles have been playing under the radar this year. Ever since they got AJ Brown back, this team has been balling. The real credit goes to the D, who seem to finally have embraced DC’s Vic Fangio’s system. Eagles took out the once red hot Commanders who dropped their 2nd straight, 26-18 on TNF.
• Bears Blow Win – Congrats to the new OC for making the offense look decent, but the Bears had not beaten GB in 10 games. So, when they were up 19-14 inside of 5 minutes, the streak looked over – Part 1, but then the Pack drove the length of the field, and QB Jordan Love sneaked the ball in from the 1 to take the lead, 20-19. Then, the Bears moved the ball easily inside FG range for a chance to win from 46 yards only to be blocked for the 11th straight loss to the Packers…..
• Colts Stole One – The Jets should not have been favored by 4 points, but they had a 4th Quarter lead at 24-16, then 24-22, then 27-22 only to give up a late drive by the Colts. Give QB Anthony Richardson credit for getting the start again and doing what he does, this time bulldozing the Jets D for his 2nd rushing TD and the game winning TD with 46 seconds to beat the Jets, 28-27. The Jets have now lost 7 of 8.
• Steelers Know Lamar – Say what you want to say about style points, but PIT knows something the rest of the league does not – how to slow down QB Lamar Jackson. In the game Sunday, BAL had a chance late to tie the game after a TD pass to WR Zay Flowers, but PIT stuffed the QB Sweep. I thought PIT was going to blow the game after kicking 6 FGs instead of scoring TDs, but PIT dominated time of possession – 36:22 to 23:38 in their 18-16. The Steelers lead the AFC North now by 1.5 games.
• Seahawks Stun SF – When, QB Brock Purdy found Jujuan Jennings for a TD to go up 17-13 with 9:33 remaining, it seemed like the win was secured. Not so fast, QB Geno Smith methodically drove his team down the field for 80 yards on 11 plays culminated in 13 yard scramble that gave SEA a huge road win, 20-17.
• Allen Propelled Bills to Victory – We got what we wanted a hard fought game, and like in regular season’s past, the Bills were the team to beat. QB Josh Allen on 4th and 2 at the KC 26, the Bills opted to go for it instead of kick the FG up 2, and Allen dropped back, pulled the ball down, and ran for daylight breaking a tackle and bulldozing a the Safety for the nail in the coffin TD to get the win, 30-21.
• Chargers Survived – The Chargers have been playing great since their Bye Week. They were crushing the poor D of the Bengals and played good coverage on WR Jamar Chase. Up 27-6 with 10:34 left in the game, it looked over. Well, QB Joe Burrow started to deal – TD to Chase, TD to Higgins, then another TD to Chase, and the game was tied with 12:21 left in the game – showing how explosive the Bengals can be erasing a 21 point deficit inside of a Quarter. However, the Bengals missed 2 FGs in the 4th Quarter to take the lead, and finally, the Chargers moved the ball down for a big TD run from JK Dobbins to seal the game, 34-27.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 4-0, Totals 2-2 – The lone blemish on the Straight Picks was the Ravens, but great ATS Week.

Fantasy Football Advice

Nothing major, but this is one of two Bye-Mageddon weeks with 6 teams on bye. So, hopefully, you can get through your week without your Bengals, Bills and Falcons. Beside RB Breece Hall, the Jets don’t matter nor do the Jags. Saints with Kamara and TE Taysom Hill (who singlehanded beat me last week).

Wegs Index Through Week 11

Note, the Lions are back on top, and they are the SB Favorite at +400. KC is now at +450. BUF are next at +650 with BAL +800 and PHI at +900.

Week 12 Key Matchups – Byes: CIN, BUF, ATL, JAC, NYJ, NO

• 49ers at Packers (-2.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/24 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – The 49ers are not the same team as last year. It is the Defense. They cannot get stops late, and something is just not clicking on Offense. Still, the Packers were unimpressive at Chicago last Sunday. So, the line seems right. I just think the Packers are much better at home, and sure McCaffery can run on this team, but can the D stop the Pack? I don’t think so. GB wins, Covers -2.5, Total Over 47.5.
• Cardinals at Seahawks (+1, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/24 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – This unlikely game is very important for the NFC West. The Cards are leading the division still, and the Seahawks got a huge win at SF to pull back to .500. I’m not even sure what we will see here, but AZ has run the ball on everyone. If SEA cannot stop the run, then it is going to be a long day. Still, I will be watching this one intently. AZ wins, Covers -1, Total Under 47.5.
• Eagles at Rams (+3, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/24 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Eagles look like just a cut below the Lions in the NFC, and this game will tell me if they can beat them. The Rams have the WRs to score on PHI, but can the Rams slow down the Eagles? I do not think so. I like the Eagles to win, Cover -3, Total Under 49.5 (although up from 48 at Open) on SNF.
• Ravens at Chargers (+3, 50 Total) – Monday, 11/25 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – This game becomes really important for the Ravens after the loss at PIT. Can BAL bounce back? I think they will. I do like the Chargers and how they are playing, plus you will see a very similar game plan as PIT – running the ball at will, but BAL is tough against the run, not the pass. I think BAL will come ready to play and get the win, Cover -3, Total Over 50 (up from 47.5 at Open) on MNF.

Let’s do this again.

Wegs