NFL: Recap Week 10/Key Matchups Week 11

Just when you think it is a favorites’ paradise in the NFL, the dogs bark back.

Recap Week 10

• Ravens Outlast CIN Again: Just like in Week 5, the Bengals had a shot to take down their AFC North rival. This time after scoring the apparent game tying TD, HC Zac Taylor opted to go for 2 and the win, despite some apparent non-penalty calls, the Ravens held strong to win, 35-34. I wish they played each other every week.
• SF Wins Barely: After the Bye, I really thought the 49ers would roll in TB. Well, the O was pretty good as SF gained 413 yards, but 3 missed FGs by K Jake Moody made this a nailbiter. Ultimately, Moody was able to make his last second attempt from 44 yards to get the win, 23-20.
• Chiefs Tempt Fate: The Chiefs have not been dominating the competition. In fact, they have been in so many one score games, it is hard to count. This time DEN had them on the ropes to knock them out of the ranks of the unbeaten. With the last snap of the game, DEN had a 35 yard FG to win it only to be blocked by the Chiefs for yet another thrilling victory moving them to 9-0.
• PIT Has Grit: We all know that HC Mike Tomlin loves to be the underdog, especially a road dog. In this game at WAS, it seemed like a home game with the number of Terrible Towels in the crowd. Still, the Commanders led by 10 in the 2nd half. However, as they have done many times in Tomlin’s tenure, the Steelers found a way to win. QB Russell Wilson threw a moon ball up to newly acquired WR Mike Williams for the go ahead TD with 2:22 remaining. WAS had a shot, but a questionable spot on a 4th down in PIT territory secured the win (as well as an Offside Penalty). PIT won, 28-27.
• Lions Overcome TOs: QB Jared Goff had played like an MVP prior to Sunday, but in this one, 5 INTs opened the door for the wounded Texans to get a win. However, even trailing 23-7 at the half, the tough-minded Lions made plays (2 INTs of CJ Stroud), and a last second FG secured yet another win for DET, 26-23.

Predictions: S/U 4-0, ATS 2-2, Totals 4-0 – I’m getting the handle on the big game sides lately. The Spreads are another story. Happy to hit all Totals this week, too.

Fantasy Home Stretch

Alright, there are about 4 weeks left in most fantasy seasons. You know your team. The trade deadline is quickly approaching. The waiver wire is picked clean. So, how do you win?

1. Studs Win Titles – You know you are your top producers. As the season goes on, teams go back to the well when things get tough. You should do the same.
2. Handcuff Your RBs – Assuming you are a decent team, then you have a top workhorse RB. Now is the time to get the backup. Why? Well, unless you are Christian McCaffery who is insane on his own, then the O-Line has a lot to do with your RB’s success. So, even a backup RB will get plenty of production, especially in good offenses – goal line tendencies do not change must even with a backup. If your top dog goes down in the next 3 weeks, do not be that guy who misses having the handcuff for the playoffs.
3. Steady Production over Variability – In season long leagues, you need to know your production. Play the players who are the most consistent, not the home run/strikeout guys. You can win a lot of weeks if you simply score your league average very single week. Then, you have a higher floor that has upside when guys score multiple TDs. Trying to pick a WR who is boom or bust every week is going to give you heartburn and a loss when you don’t want it.
4. DST and K – Yeah, we tease them, but be sure you have a D that can get after the QB or consistently forces TOs (again floor production) and a Kicker on a good offense. You do not need the guy who bangs 50 yarders all the time, but you do need a Kicker who will score every single week so you do not have a whole in your lineup.
5. Upside Rookies – If you have any room on your bench, then do not be afraid to add a handcuff who someone else should have picked up – Braelon Allen (NYJ), Trey Benson (AZ), Kimani Vidal (LAC). Young legs help down the stretch.

Wegs Index After Week 10

We have a new top dog in the Index after the dominant performance in DAL.

Key Matchups in Week 11 – Byes: TB, AZ, NYG, CAR

• Commanders at Eagles (-3.5, 49 Total) – Thursday, 11/14 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – Look, I’m a huge fan of the Commanders this year. In fact, yet again, my team, the Bears, have missed out on the top QB in the draft in Jayden Daniels. They played good enough to beat a tough Steelers team. However, the Eagles are another animal. As you can see in the Index, the D has been playing at another level. Early in the year, the Pass D was a liability, but it appears DC Vic Fangio has the team balling now. So, I do not like this matchup for WAS. The spread just over where I would put it at -3. However, I think when push comes to shove, WAS is going to get pushed around on TNF. So, despite the number being in favor of the Commanders, I would lay the -3.5 (if you get -3, even better). PHI wins, Covers -3.5, total Over 49.
• Ravens at Steelers (+3, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/17 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Another great divisional matchup, this time in the AFC North. PIT comes in riding high off of that big win at WAS. BAL survived CIN. Look, if you have watched BAL this year, then you know they are like the 2018 KC Chiefs now, but this D is not great. Meanwhile, PIT does have the D humming along and enough O to make this game close. I was hoping to see a +3.5 for the Steelers which may pop later this week, but I’ll still take the points with PIT at home +3. BAL will win the game though. Total will be Under 48.5 this time (I know BAL can score 48 on their own), but call it a gut feeling.
• Chiefs at Bills (-2.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/17 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – We get a potential Divisional Round or AFC Title Game Preview in this one. It seems like they play each other every single year, and I am here for it. Much like other past regular season games, I like BUF to win this one. The Chiefs are great, and as my podcast co-host says, they are Thanos – Inevitable. However, KC will not go undefeated this year, that is clear. They have lived on the edge time and time again. Plus, the way you beat the Chiefs is running the ball, and BUF can do that now. QB Josh Allen plays well in these games, and the crowd will be rocking in BUF. So, I like the Bills to win this game, Cover -2.5 (yes betting against Mahomes as a dog is lethal), Total Under 45.5.
• Bengals at Chargers (-1.5, 47 Total) – Sunday, 11/17 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – You may ask why I included this game, as the Bengals are not what we thought they were. Still, I see this as a last stand game for CIN. With PIT and BAL way up in the standings, CIN is already in must win mode. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are surging. HC Jim Harbaugh has really put his imprint on the style of play, and now QB Justin Herbert is getting comfortable down the field. So, I think the Chargers are the better team here. I think if Joey Burrow and the crew want to save the season, then they have to win this game. So, I’m going to make a pick based on my analytics on this article, but do not be surprised if I flip on the podcast this week. LAC wins, Covers -1.5, Total Over 47.

We are really getting into the stretch run. To me, this is when the NFL is at its best.

Wegs