NFL: Week 8 Recap/Week 9 Matchups

What is the saying? It ain’t over until it’s over. Well, the finishes in the Sunday games were insane.

Week 8 Recap

• Texans Control the South – The Texans have not been great or as infallible as they were in the 2nd half of 2023, but they are winning football games. They won another gritty one at home this time against the Colts who started Anthony Richardson. Richardson was bad – 10 for 32 for 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a play he pulled himself out. Somehow, they still had a chance in this one, and IND is not 7-1 ATS, but HOU won the game, 23-20. However, it looks like WR Stefon Diggs is now out for the season for HOU hurting their long term prospects. Colts are benching Richardson now – finally.
• Eagles Roll in the 2nd: I thought the Bengals would bring their A game against a better team in the Eagles, but no chance. CIN’s D is just too soft to play a good running game, and QB Jalen Hurts was great on Sunday – 16 of 20 for 236, 1 TD and 3 rushing TDs. PHI outscored the Bengals, 27-7 in the 2nd half for a resounding, 37-17 victory. Joe Burrow needs to stop talking about 10 wins and start focusing on week to week performance.
• Browns Management: Why did CLE start Deshaun Watson? Clearly, anyone gives the Browns a better chance to win. Last year, it was Joe Flacco, this year, Jameis Winston got the start. He threw for 334 yards passing, 3 TDs and 0 INTs including the go ahead TD with 59 seconds to play. Now, Lamar Jackson almost hit a bit play late, but the Browns won the game, 29-24. It just baffles the imagination that it took the injury to put another guy in there. Maybe the Browns can salvage their season.
• Daniels Saves the Day: Look, I’m a fantasy football guy, so when I heard Jayden Daniels was actually going to start against my Chicago Bears, I was excited and worried at the same time. Daniels wasn’t incredible like he has been, but he moved the ball on the Bears only to settle for 4 FGs during the bulk of the game. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams was not great until the 4th Quarter, then the Bears had a couple of chances to take the lead late. The first time the idiot decision to run the ball with a lineman for a fumble inside the 5 yard line. Then, they did get the go ahead score with 25 seconds left. The issue was the Bears’ DC and HC don’t understand that 15 yard out routes are important to stop. On the final play after the out route set WAS at their 48 yard line, Daniels avoided a light rush, rolled left, then chucked a ball 65 yards down the field in the air, meanwhile the most idiotic of all plays (more than the lineman rush), CB Tyrique Stevenson was busy clowning the crowd while the ball was snapped, not ready for the play, then he ran to the ball tips it in the air only to have WR Noah Brown catch the ball for the walk off, Hail Mary TD to win, 18-15. A gut wrenching loss for the Bears, while Daniels essentially solidifies his Rookie of the Year award.
• 49ers Still Owns the Cowboys: Stop me if you have heard this before, DAL can’t win the big game. The first half was tight, but HC Kyle Shanahan called an incredible game in the 2nd half, and 24 points later, DAL was scrambling to keep up. They couldn’t capitalize on their final drive and lost 30-24 falling to 3-4. SF pulled to 4-4 into their Bye Week, which they need to get healthy for the final push.

Predictions: Not my best week – Daniels playing did change some, but nonetheless – S/U 1-3, ATS 1-3, Totals 1-3

Through 8 Weeks: The preseason predictions have been great – 62.60% for the year on a game by game basis. I still have 28.13% or 9 teams at their exact record. The outliers are below:

• Surprise Performers: WAS 6-2 (predicted to be 1-7) – couldn’t have been more wrong on the Commanders. MIN 5-2 (predicted to be 1-6) – they have lost 2 straight, but they have defied their odds.
• Complete Duds: MIA 2-5 (predicted to be 6-1) – just terrible losses now this time against AZ in Week 8. CIN 2-6 (predicted to be 6-2) – the D is terrible. CLE 2-6 (6-2 prediction) – what can be said, with Jameis they have a shot to rebound. LAR 3-4 (predicted 6-1) – the Rams showed life in TNF with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back, so maybe they can make it all the way back.

Fantasy Pickups for Week 9

We had some good hits the last couple of weeks with Cade Otten and Winston. Let’s keep this rolling.

• QB Joe Flacco, IND – Yep, again. He is back to starting, as the Colts are on the brink of the playoffs. Surprising how they want a guy who will not tap out mid-drive. Flacco should be good in this offense, and with the Colts D being awful, you have to like his ability to chuck it when down in the game.
• RB Isaac Guerendo, SF – Yes, he is going into the Bye and McCaffery may come back. I think he should be owned in all leagues. He provided a real pop in the 2nd half (14 for 85 yards, 1 TD) and he has flashed when he gets carries.
• WR Cedric Tillman, CLE – Looks like Winston worked with this guy on the practice field before. Tillman was 2nd in targets – 9 – converting those into 7 catches, 99 yards and 2 TDs.
• WR Josh Downs, IND – Flacco is in, so Downs after a great game – 9 targets, 4 catches, 109 yards and 1 TD – has immediate value.
• WR Ladd McConkey, LAC – He may not be available in your league, but he finally had a big day for the Chargers. He gets pretty consistent targets, and he broke through with 2 TDs this week.

Next week, I’ll look at Trade Targets as the deadline is fast approaching.

Wegs Index Through Week 8

Key Matchups in Week 9 – Byes: 49ers, Steelers

• Dolphins at Bills (-6, 50 Total) – Sunday, 11/3 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – We are in must win territory for MIA. They are not playing well on D. Tua played fine last week, but they are far from the white hot offense we saw in the past 2 season in MIA. BUF is actually playing the way they should – running the ball and dominating opponents. The obvious choice is to back BUF, as Josh Allen has killed the Dolphins every time he plays them. However, this is the NFL. Can MIA play one good game? Not sure I would actually bet this game any way, but I will pick BUF to win and Cover -6, Total Under 50.
• Bears at Cardinals (PK, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/3 at 3:05 PM Central on CBS – This is another consecutive week for CHI against surprise playoff contenders. AZ’s back to back wins have put them tied for 1st in the NFC West. The Bears’ embarrassing finish could be motivation for them. However, HC Matt Eberflus’s record on the road as the coach has been abysmal. I’ll take AZ to win the game. Total Under 44.5, as the Bears D does hold teams down.
• Rams at Seahawks (+1.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/3 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – With SF on bye, there is a chance for more teams to grab a share of the lead in the NFC West. SEA has been beaten at home badly in back to back games. So, the 12th Man does not seem to matter. The mini-bye for the Rams should help them get it done in this game. I liked how the O looked on TNF with Kupp and Puka back in action. I like the Rams in this game to win, Cover -1.5, Total Over 48.5.
• Lions at Packers (+3.5, 48 Total) – Sunday, 11/3 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – Here we go. Arguably the 2 best teams in the NFL not just the NFC North. The Lions have been putting a hurting on anyone lately. The Pack took a blow with QB Jordan Love hurting his groin in JAC. Malik Willis starting is reflected in this number, as the look ahead was GB -1. I think DET is on a mission for sure, but I would take the dog here, even with Willis. If the Lions do win this one, then I’ll get some money on them to win the SB (currently +650). They look like the best team in the NFC for sure right now So, DET wins the game, GB +3.5 against the spread, Total Over 48.

We are halfway through.

Wegs