NFL: Week 5 Recap/Week 6 Match Ups

The League is finally starting to level out now. The games are getting better with real competition. We had some great finishes.

Week 5 Recap

• Vikes Splendid – MIN went to London and jumped all over the Jets with a Pick 6 of Aaron Rodgers and really never looked back. The Jets will not win a lot of games with Rodgers throwing 54 times in a game. MIN goes to 5-0 with the 23-17 win.
• Texans Outlast Bills – HOU has not played at their full potential yet and with more injuries, they may struggle for a few weeks. However, in this one, Stroud did what he needed to and the D was great limiting Josh Allen to 9 of 30 passing, but HOU needed a late FG to win it, 23-20 at the gun to get the win.
• Ravens Steal One – The Bengals led 24-14 and 38-28, but BAL was able to force OT at 38-38. Still, Lamar Jackson fumbled the snap on their opening drive, but CIN missed the FG attempt on a dropped snap. Derrick Henry finished the job with a big run down the sideline to set up the GW FG for the 41-38 win – dropping the Bengals to 1-4 (only a 6% chance to make the playoffs).
• Cards Shock SF – AZ started the game hot with a 50 yard Kyler Murray scamper for a TD, but they trailed big in the 2nd half, 23-10 at the half. Then, the Cardinals forced 3 TOs and drive on downs to shut out the 49ers in the 2nd half. AZ kicked a FG late to win the game, 24-23.
• Cowboys Outmuscle PIT – I have to say that I never thought the Cowboys would go into PIT and manhandle the PIT D, but they did. DAL mustered 445 yards converted 9 of 15 on 3rd Down, but PIT did force 3 TOs and blocked a FG to give the Steelers a 17-13 lead late. Yet, Dak Prescott took the team down the field yet again, and on 4th and Goal from the DAL 4 to Jalen Tolbert (on one leg after an injury the play before) to win, 20-17.

Predictions: S/U 2-2, ATS 2-2, Totals 1-3 – Rough on totals this week, but really 2 coin flips with CIN and PIT to miss 4-0s on games and sides. I’ll keep at it.

Fantasy Pickups for Week 6

• RB Tank Bigsby, JAC – Maybe Travis Etienne is hurt, but it is Bigsby who is getting the carries now. He went for 101 yards on 13 carries including TDs of 18 and 65 yards. He is only rostered about 40-50% in most leagues. He will be the top pick up this week.
• RB, Roschon Johnson, CHI – The Bears are finally running the ball, and D’Andre Swift has been incredible, but Johnson is getting all the short yardage touches and TDs. He is not rostered enough.
• WR Wandale Robinson, NYG – With or without Nabers in the lineup, Wandale got 9 more targets, 6 catches, 36 yards and a TD. Slayton was also heavily targeted (11 targets, 8 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD), but I think his usage drops once Nabers returns.
• WR Michael Wilson, AZ – Wilson continues to be highly involved in the offense. This week he turned 6 targets into 78 yards, which is a solid WR3 or Flex in PPR.

Wegs Index Through Week 5

We are back to the Wegs Index to dig into the teams and matchups. More data is always better, but in Week 5, the Index helped me go 6-1 on ATS bets. Just a reminder, the Index is made up of 6 measures: Offense: Yards/Game, Points/Game; Defense: Yards Against/Game, Points Against/Game; Point Differential and Turnover Margin. Stack ranking each category for a cumulative rank amongst the 32 teams. Top Teams will be the lower number, while Poor Teams will be a higher number. Here is the Index through 5 Weeks.

Key Matchups in Week 6 – Bye Week: Bills, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings

• 49ers at Seahawks (+3.5, 47.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/10 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – Both teams are coming off of disappointing home losses. The 49ers are under .500, which is a shock at 2-3, especially with losses to division rivals – Rams and Cardinals. So, SF has huge motivation to get back in the win column here. SEA’s D has not been great in the 2 straight weeks and now has cluster injuries including Nwosu to IR, and even if they are home, I think the +3.5 is the right spread here. SF wins this one, Covers -3 and Total goes Over 47.5.
• Commanders at Ravens (-6.5, 52 Total) – Sunday, 10/13 at Noon Central on CBS – It is time to find out if WAS is actually a good football team. The Ravens are not going to let QB Jayden Daniels run around and make plays like he has for the past 4 weeks. Although the BAL D has underperformed lately, I think the pressure will be big on him. I’m more concerned that the WAS D who has been great in back to back weeks, but can they hold up against Henry and Lamar running all over them? I don’t think so, even if I love them. BAL wins, Covers -6.5, Total Under 52.
• Lions at Cowboys (+3.5, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/13 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – The Boys played a great game on SNF, and they committed to the run against a good D. So, if they can keep the balanced attack against a leaky DET D, then they have a shot. The Lions O was full throttle the last time we saw them at home against SEA. So, this one could be a high scoring affair. It is a tough one, but I’ll go with DAL getting points at home as the number should be lower, DET wins, DAL +3.5, Total Over 52.5.
• Bills at Jets (+2.5, 41 Total) – Monday, 10/14 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – A key matchup in the AFC East, and both teams come in losing 2 straight. The Jets fired Robert Saleh on Tuesday, which seems like an Aaron Rodgers move instead of firing OC Hackett. The O has been a disappointment in back to back weeks, so not sure what this move means, except the the Interim Coach is going to be DC Jeff Ulbrich. The Bills have not lived up to the billing against better opponents but the Jets are not that. They are middle tier. I would still go with the Jets in a bounce back spot here to Win (proverbial “Dead Cat Bounce”), Cover +2.5, Total Under 41.

Enjoy Week 6.

Wegs