NFL: Week 4 Recap/Week 5 Key Matchups

After a week hiatus traveling, I’m back to recap another nutty week in The League. 

Week 4 Recap

• Vikings Stay Unbeaten – Yes, GB brought Jordan Love back a little early, and the 3 INTs led to a quick 28-0 Vikings lead.  However, QB Sam Darnold and the gang did what they have done for the first month of the season, and they held off the Pack late to win their 4^th straight game, 31-29.  Not sure they will sustain this success, but it is clear I was dead wrong on the Vikings this year.
• Philly in Disarray – Injuries matter, but some more than others.  The Eagles were able to get a win at NO the week before without WR AJ Brown, but when OT Lane Johnson misses games, bet against them.  They win at a 33% clip without him, and TB took full advantage with a decided 33-16 win.  It seems like both DAL and PHI are going to need to dig deep to hold off this next team.
• Daniels Dazzles – Maybe the steam to push Jayden Daniels to the #1 Overall Pick was right in the spring, as WAS has been the surprise of the NFL this season.  The Commanders Offense is hard to be denied.  They didn’t punt in 2 games, and in this one, Daniels continued his great play with 233 yards passing, 1 TD passing and a rushing TD for a 42-14 road win in AZ.  Daniels has completed 82.1% of his passes through 4 games – a rookie record. 
• Ravens Flex – Just 2 weeks ago, BAL was 0-2 at DAL, but now after righting the ship and running the ball down people’s throats.  The Ravens have now been rated the best 2-2 team in decades, as RB Derrick “King” Henry ripped off a 87 yard run to start the game and finished with 199 yards in the dominant 35-10 win over the Bills.  The Bills show yet again, that they cannot stop capable running games.
• Dolph-outs – The Fins are a trainwreck at this point.  After a narrow Week 1 victory at home versus the 0-4 Jags, MIA has been annihilated by everyone.  In Week 4, they allowed the winless Titans to come into Hard Rock and win convincingly, 31-12.  The Offense without Tua has been shameful with under 90 yards through 3 quarters against TEN with off the street QB, Tyler Huntley, no answer for the woes.  HC Mike McDaniel should be on the hot seat.

Predictions Recap:  I did not make predictions for Week 4 – apologies – however through 4 weeks, despite my terrible record in the Circa Millions so far, the preseason picks have been great.  37-27 (57.81%) and 11 of 32 (34.38%) teams with the correct record.  What that tells me is that besides a few outliers, ignore the weekly swirl of news and follow those initial picks. 

Definitely wrong on the following teams:  MIA (Predicted 4-0, Actual 1-3), LAR (3-1 vs. 1-3), CLE (3-1 vs. 1-3), CIN (3-1 vs. 1-3) on the negative side with 2 surprise teams:  MIN (Predicted 0-4, Actual 4-0), WAS (0-4 vs. 3-1). 

Fantasy Pickups for Week 5

I, for one, need to find some gems in one of my leagues.  So, who can we get this week that can make a difference this week and going forward.

• QB, Joe Flacco, IND – Flacco does it yet again, but this time in IND.  With Richardson potentially missing the next game, Flacco can still spin it.  I like the weapons there, and if you have underperforming guys – Trevor Lawrence – then he can start for you immediately at JAC.
• WR, Dontayvion Wicks, GB – Wicks is the definitely deep threat for this team, as he gets more looks with QB Jordan Love back.  Last week, he found the end zone twice.  He still has competition for targets with Christian Watson (but missed Week 4) and my favorite Packer, Jayden Reed.  Still Wicks is a must add.
• RB, Jeremy McNichols, WAS – The Daniels effect really helps this running game, and with Ekeler being dinged up (Concussion), there needs to be a 2^nd back that gets touches in WAS.
• WR Xavier Legette, CAR – The rookie WR took advantage of Adam Thielen being out with a good day and a TD. CAR should be trailing in most matchups, and the Red Rifle needs a 2nd target besides Johnson.

Week 5 Key Matchups

First note that the bye weeks start this week with TEN, PHI, LAC and DET. 

• NYJ vs. MIN (-2.5, 40.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/6 at 8:30 AM Central time on NFL Network – This game is being played in London, so no home field advantage to speak of.  The Jets are coming off a bad look loss at home, while the Vikings have been rolling.  The Jets D should travel across the pond and give Sam Darnold his toughest test, but that Jets O has not been great.  I like the Vikings to keep winning in this one and covering the -2.5.  Total goes Over 40.5, as teams like to put on a show for the British faithful.
• BUF at HOU (-1, 47 Total) – Sunday, 10/6 at Noon Central time on CBS – The Bills are stinging after getting throttled on SNF.  HOU was lucky to win at home against the Jags.  So, not sure either team is trending well in this one.  HOU limped into that last game, so I would look for more players to return, including RB Joe Mixon.  You have to run on BUF to win, and despite QB CJ Stroud playing well, they will need to hammer that BUF front.  The number tells the story that oddsmakers think BUF is better than HOU on a neutral field.  I’m not so sure here.  I think the short number HOU is appealing, and I expect Stroud and the D to play very well.  HOU wins and covers -1.  Total will go Over 47.
• BAL at CIN (+2.5, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/6 at Noon Central on CBS – The Ravens are looking primed now and the class of the AFC.  CIN finally got off the mat with a win at CAR, but they still gave up a lot of points.  It is hard for me to see CIN winning this game, but I just feel like Burrow and the Boys have been playing to the level of their competition all year.  So, I’m going to call for the CIN upset here to win outright and Cover +2.5.  Total is Under 50.5 (more of a shock).
• DAL at PIT (-2.5, 43 Total) – Sunday, 10/6 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Steelers finally showed weakness on D at IND, but I think they will relish the fact that they are home again.  DAL usually folds against teams that can stand up to them in the McCarthy era.  So, I do like PIT to win this game.  Without a real run game, DAL dropping back against this PIT pass D and rush should not yield great results.  WR CeeDee Lamb will draw CB Joey Porter, Jr. who did give up over 100 yards to Pittman last week, but in other matchups he has been great.  PIT wins, Covers -2.5.  Total Under 43.

Should be another fun week of football to watch in Week 5.

Wegs