The NFL is a week to week league, and it’s clear we really do not know anything right now. This week the Dogs were barking.
Week 2 Recap
Just overview, NFL Favorites went 9-5-1 in Week 2 with just 6 home teams winning. Rough. If you somehow advance in your Survivor Pool, congrats! You are about one third of the original group.
- Vikings for Real? – I was a doubter for sure. QB Sam Darnold has really played well in two weeks. Of course, WR Justin Jefferson’s health needs to be monitored, but HC Kevin O’Connell has the Offense working and DC Brian Flores stymied the SF Offense yet again (they beat the 49ers in MIN last year). MIN beat SF, 23-17 and they were in control virtually the entire game to go 2-0.
- Bengals Blow It: QB Joe Burrow was 3-1 going into the big matchup in KC, and the Bengals did what they needed to do most of the game. Still while up 22-17 in the 4th Quarter, Burrow got strip sacked, and KC took it to the house for the go ahead score. The Bengals would take the lead again, but a 4th Down Pass Interference call on the Chiefs’ final drive opened the door for the Harrison Butker GW FG, 26-25.
- Willis Makes Enough Plays: The Packers were underdogs at home against the Colts – Green Bay always wins at their home opener. Well, HC Matt Lafleur saw the HOU tape and ran the ball at will 261 rushing yards – including 151 from Josh Jacobs (IND has now given up back to back 150 yard rushers). QB Malik Willis got the win passing just 14 times, but that included a TD pass, 16-10.
- Saints for Real? Well, OC Klint Kubiak has the Saints on Nitrous in the Fast and the Furious. The Saints put up 35 first half points, and 44 total for 91 points in 2 games. RB Alvin Kamara had 4 of those TDs, and the Cowboys had no answer. Saints are now 2-0.
- Don’t Sleep on the Bucs: I knew that -7 or -7.5 was way too many points for DET over TB. TB is a good team, injuries or not. In this one, the Bucs D stonewalled the in the Red Zone with only 1 of 7 conversions on the game. TB won the game outright, 20-16 moving to 2-0.
- Texans Not Pretty, But Win: The Texans are a force, if they can get out of their own way. On SNF, they limited the Bears to 205 yards of Offense, but 12 penalties for 115 yards gave the Bears a shot at the end of the game to win. The HOU D held yet again to secure the 19-13 win. All other AFC South teams are 0-2, with the Texans at 2-0.
- All Time Bad Beat: PHI was a -6.5 favorite all weekend, then with WR AJ Brown ruled out (for multiple weeks potentially) and the line dropped to -5.5, the Eagles led 18-15 with 1:42 left in the game – ATL had no time outs. The Eagles on 3rd and 3 inside at the 10 yard line with a 97.5% chance to win – decide to throw the ball (wtf!!) – RB Saquon Barkley drops the pass right in his mitts, stops the clock. PHI make the FG (to go up by 6 – covering but should they have? Going for it had a 95% probability vs. 90% with the FG). PHI kicks off with 1:39 left, QB Kirk Cousins zipped the ball all over the field for a go ahead TD and XP after an Unsportsmanlike Penalty to take the lead 22-21. PHI QB Jalen Hurts throws an INT, and the Falcons win, cover and kill this writer’s Survivor hopes. Terrible beat.
Predictions: S/U 2-2, ATS 2-2, Total 2-2 – some bad beats here, but considering the carnage in Week 2, I’ll take .500.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
- QB Sam Darnold, MIN – Maybe a week too late, but Darnold has been really good. He may miss Justin Jefferson (Questionable Quad), but the play calling has been great and Sam has benefitted.
- Carson Steele, KC – Isiah Pacheco left the KC-CIN on crutches and will have surgery on a broken bone – out at least 6 weeks. So, someone has to get those touches. The rookie Carson Steele could get some run (along with his hair), and Samaje Perine could play passing downs. I’ll take a chance on Carson.
- RB Cam Akers, HOU – Although he fumbled late in the SNF game, Akers is worth a pickup as Joe Mixon left with an ankle injury on SNF.
- WR Jalen Nailor, MIN – Justin Jefferson left with a quad injury, and Nailor has been involved already with 2 TDs so far, and Jordan Addison is missing. He is a must pickup at this point.
- WR Quentin Johnson, LAC – Finally!! The 2nd year WR had a breakout in a rushing Offense, but he did have 2 TDs and 5 catches on 6 targets. Perhaps, this performance vaults him up the pecking order ahead of McConkey.
- TE Mike Gesicki, CIN – Finally!! No seriously, I like Gesicki coming into the season, and he had a great outing this week at KC with 7 catches and 91 yards. When Higgins comes back, his value will dip, but after this week, the TE matchups are looking really good.
I wouldn’t add QB Andy Dalton, but you should know that Bryce Young has been benched in CAR. QB Sklyar Thompson will likely start this week at SEA – no thanks, plus he may give up the job to Tyler Huntley at some point with Tua out until who knows.
Key Matchups in Week 3
- Texans at Vikings (+2.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – A theme this week is the surprise 2-0 teams facing off. HOU was not a huge surprise, but MIN certainly has been. The Vikings for a last place team have a tough schedule with back to back division winners at home. HOU will come in a little nicked up with Mixon potentially hobbled. The D for HOU will get its hands full with MIN, although no JJ will hurt the deep shots if he misses the game. I do think HOU is the better football team, but +2.5 is too many for me (Opened +4, so coming down), as HOU has yet to cover in both wins so far this year. HOU to Cover will need to play a much cleaner game than against CHI. Total for this one will be Under 45.5.
- Eagles at Saints (-2.5, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at Noon Central on FOX – The surprise Saints have been incredible, and what they do well, the Eagles do poorly – throw the ball deep. The Eagles blew it on MNF, so maybe they bounce back. However, I’ll ride with the Saints to win and Cover -2.5 in this one. Total will go Over 49.5 (number is climbing up from 45.5).
- Chargers at Steelers (-2, 35.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at Noon Central on CBS – A battle of 2 surprise 2-0 teams here, and perhaps a bit of familiarity, as Greg Roman has played against PIT many times. QB Justin Herbert’s ankle is a big factor here, as the line shows him potentially out at present. I think HC Jim Harbaugh keeps the momentum in this one and runs the ball on PIT. PIT cannot keep winning games scoring in the teens. LAC wins S/U and Covers +2, Total Under 35.5.
- Ravens at Cowboys (+1, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/22 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – Ravens are a desperate team at 0-2 on the road, and the Boys got embarrassed by the Saints. So, it is confounding spot here. I think the Ravens in a must win are the obvious choice, but maybe they are just not that good. I think the Cowboys need to find a run game at some point, not in this one. However, the Ravens have given up several explosive plays of 20+ yards in the first two weeks, that is what DAL does best. I’ll still roll with the Ravens -1 and Total Over 48.5.
- Jags at Bills (-5.5, 45.5 Total) – Monday, 9/23 at 6:30 PM Central on ESPN – I had to highlight one prime time game. There are 2 MNF games, this is the earlier one. The Jags are now 0-2 and in a must win game on the road at BUF. Not sure how many teams have gone 0-3 and made the playoffs, but not many. I expect them to play their best, but still lose. Bills are better than the Jags, but can they fully throttle them like they did the Fins? Maybe not. I’ll take BUF to win, Jags +5.5, and Total Under 45.5.
Let’s see if the Favorites will strike back in Week 3.
Wegs