The NFL is always entertaining. Just when you thought a team is going to be terrible, then they win on the road. These early weeks on the season it is so hard to know what you are going to get.
Week 1 Recap
- Bengals Suck Week 1: So, under HC Zach Taylor, the Bengals are 1-10 in the first 2 weeks of the season. QB Joe Burrow is now 1-4 as a starter in Week 1. He did not look great, and his wrist may have prevented him to through deep. Meanwhile, HC Jared Mayo rallied the troops despite being over a TD dog on the road to the outright win, 16-10. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was great with 25 carries, 120 yards and a TD. The Pats led 10-0 at the half and never looked back.
- Packers Lose A Lot: The Pack (my SB winner) played tough in Brazil, and they really had a chance to win this one, but they couldn’t get a stop late in their 34-29 loss. More importantly, QB Jordan Love was contorted awkwardly sustaining an MCL sprain that will cost him 4-6 weeks. Backup QB Malik Willis will need to keep the Pack on track for a while, unless GB looks to sign Ryan Tannehill who is chilling on the couch.
- Bills Survive a Scare: The Bills were a heavy -6.5 favorite on Sunday, and a popular Survivor pick. Arizona came in and dominated the first half leading at one point, 17-3. The Bills scored a late 1st half TD to pull within 7 and turned the tide taking the lead in the 2nd and never giving it back. The Cards hate a late drive stall to give the Bills the win, 34-28.
- Texans Win a Shootout: The Texans are the defending AFC South Champs, and the Offense played like it. HOU had the ball for over 40 minutes in the game aided by RB Joe Mixon’s monster day, 30 carries, 159 yards, 1 TD plus 3 catches. Still IND kept bouncing back as QB Anthony Richardson hit deep balls often including a 54 yard TD to WR Ashton Dulin. However, Mixon and QB CJ Stroud were too much for the Colts, as they ran out the clock and got the 29-27 win.
- Lions Outlast the Rams: SNF was a good one, as the Lions rolled to an early 17-3 lead early in the 3rd. Leave it to QB Matthew Stafford to gunsling the Rams back to a 20-17 lead in the fourth after he hit WR Cooper Kupp for a TD with 4:30 to play. DET was able to get the game tying FG to force OT. In OT, the Rams could not stop RB David Montgomery who pushed the ball up the field with each carry and the final TD plunge to win the game, 26-20.
Predictions Recap: S/U 3-2, ATS 3-2, Totals 3-2 – not a great start, but over .500.
Fantasy Pickups After Week 1
- RB Jordan Mason, SF – The biggest pick up in Week 1, as the Christian McCaffery handcuff. Shame on you if you did not pick him up in your draft, as CMC may miss another game. Mason was great against the Jets, and he will get more run this week at MIN.
- QB Malik Willis, GB – No, he will not replace Jordan Love’s production, but Willis still has great WRs and he will use his legs more than Love did. If you are in a bind with Love (or other middling QBs), you could do worse than Willis. The Colts struggled to stop the run, so I would expect HC Matt Lefleur to use his legs plenty on Sunday.
- WR Demarcus Robinson, LAR – Puka Nakua was dinged up on Sunday, and Robinson provided some spark. 7 targets, 4 catches and 42 yards in not a full game is good production. If Nakua is out longer, then Robinson could be a nice flex for the duration.
- WR Alec Pierce, IND – You have to beware of long catch production, as Pierce did catch only 3 balls (on 3 targets), but he connected on 2 of those for a TD and 125 yards total. I like that Richardson will push the ball, and Pierce is a good player to plug in some matchups – like GB who struggled everywhere on the field.
Key Matchups in Week 2
- Bills at Dolphins (-1.5, 49 Total) – Thursday, 9/12 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – We get a great matchup in the AFC East here, as the Fins need to make a statement early. MIA has struggled in big matchups in the past, and they needed a comeback to beat the Jags in Week 1. However, the Bills may have been looking ahead to this one with their poor 1st half against AZ. My gut tells me to pick the Bills here, but it is hard to ignore how poorly they played. I think MIA wins this game and covers -1.5. Total is Under 49.
- Bucs at Lions (-7, 51 Total) – Sunday, 9/15 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Another playoff rematch for the Lions to start at home, and they survived their first one. Most experts love the Lions in this one, as they quote a poor secondary for TB. I’m not sure about that. I do think the Lions will win this game, but -7 seems like too many points for me. I’ll take DET to win, but TB to cover +7. Total is Over 51 this time.
- Bengals at Chiefs (-6, 48 Total) – Sunday, 9/15 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – My AFC Tile Game preview here, but the Bengals did not look good in Week 1. Somehow the Bengals play well against KC, and clearly they looked ahead of the Pats in Week 1. The Chiefs looked good, but were a toe tap away from OT or losing the game outright against BAL. Probably against better judgement and Zach Taylor’s early season record, I like KC to win, CIN +6, and Total Under 48.
- Bears at Texans (-6.5, 46 Total) – Sunday, 9/15 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – An interesting matchup on SNF in Week 2 with CJ Stroud facing off against the 2024 #1 pick, QB Caleb Williams. Williams was terrible in Week 1, despite winning his start – first #1 QB win in their first start since David Carr. The D bailed him out (and special teams), but the Texans are a real football team. CJ will not throw a terrible Pick 6 when up late. So, I do think the Texans win this game and Cover -6.5. Of course, I will be rooting against that. Total will be Under 46, as I think the Bears D can slow the HOU run game – unlike IND.
Alright, get some work done this week, and get ready for Week 2.
Wegs