Alright, we have a game on Sunday for all the marbles. Let’s go over all the angles for the game both actual football and betting.

Sunday, February 11th at 5:30 PM Central – CBS and Paramount Plus

Team Previews

Will Mahomes Get A 3rd Ring?

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

  • 11-6, 3 Seed in the AFC, AFC West Champ
  • Path: Wild Card – Dolphins – 26-7 Win (Home); Divisional – Bills 27-24 Win (in BUF); AFC Championship – Ravens 17-10 Win (in BAL)
  • Offense: 15th in Scoring/9th Overall Yards – 19th in Rushing Yards; 6th in Passing Yards
    • QB Patrick Mahomes – 4183 Yards Passing, 27 TDs, 14 INTs – Zero INTs in 3 playoff games
    • RB Isiah Pacheco – 935 Yards Rushing, 7 TDs – 254 Yards in the 3 Playoff Games
    • WRs Rookie Rashee Rice has been big down the stretch (938 Yards Receiving, 7 TDs), Marques Valdes-Scantling has come up big in the playoffs with chunk plays
    • TE Travis Kelce – 984 Yards Receiving, 5 TDs – 262 Yards, 3 TDs in the playoffs
    • O-Line – 14th Ranked – Good Guards, but RT Jawaan Taylor has struggled all year (will match up with Bosa) – OG Joe Thuney missed AFC Title Game and DNP last week (Pectoral)
    • KC Offense has changed their approach since late in the season after the Raiders loss – they get the ball to their studs – Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice 85% of the time, plus they are very methodical with several long drives in the playoffs. They have run the ball a lot more effectively than the regular season. Mahomes has yet to turn the ball over, which is the biggest change from the regular season.
  • Defense: 2nd in Scoring/2nd Overall Yards – 18th in Rushing Yards; 4th in Passing Yards
    • DT Chris Jones – 10.5 Sacks and 13 Tackles for Loss (TFL) – he will get inside pressure on Purdy
    • DE George Karlaftis – 10.5 Sacks and 7 TFL provides outside pressure when Jones is double teamed
    • LB Willie Gay is off the injury report who helps against the run game and scrambling QBs
    • CB Lajarius Sneed is one of the top CBs in the league and rarely gives up TD passes
    • KC Defense has been the 2nd best unit in the playoffs (to BAL) in Yards/Game and Points/Game. DC Steve Spagnuolo has bedeviled opponents not only with the game plans, but halftime adjustments. KC D averages 7 points or less all season in the 2nd half.
Will Purdy Prove His Doubters Wrong?

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

  • 12-5, 1 Seed in the NFC, NFC West Champ
  • Path: Divisional – Packers 24-21 (Home); NFC Championship – Lions 34-31 (Home)
  • Offense: 3rd in Scoring/2nd in Overall Yards – 3rd in Rushing Yards; 4th in Passing Yards
    • QB Brock Purdy – 4280 Yards Passing, 31 TDs, 11 INTs
    • RB Christian McCaffrey – 1459 Yards Rushing, 14 TDs (NFL Leading Rusher)
    • WRs Deebo Samuel – Swiss Army Knife of the offense that when he plays he improves the offense by 10 points on average, Brandon Aiyuk – 1342 Yards Receiving, 7 TDs (Lead SF)
    • TE George Kittle – 1020 Yards Receiving, 6 TDs
    • O-Line – 15th Ranked – LT Trent Williams is the key to this group
    • SF Offense was a juggernaut in the regular season, but they have struggled in the first half of both playoff games – 7 points/Game. In the 2nd half, SF has been able to come back from double digit deficits behind McCaffrey’s 188 yards on the ground and 4 TDs.
  • Defense: 3rd in Scoring/8th in Overall Yards – 3rd in Rushing Yards; 14th in Passing Yards
    • DE Nick Bosa – 10.5 Sacks, 15 TFL
    • LBs Fred Warner – 132 Tackles, 6 TFL, 4 INTs, Dre Greenlaw – 120 Tackles, 5 TFL
    • CB Charavarius Ward – former KC player – has not had the year he had in 2022, but still a good player
    • SF Defense has been a shell of its former self in the playoffs. A top unit nearly all year, but has gotten in big holes, especially on the ground 159 Yards Per Game.

Betting Angles

Moneyline: SF -129/+107 KC

Spread: -2 SF (Opened -2.5 SF) Despite – 83% of the Tickets and 76% of the Money on KC

Total: 47.5 (Opened 47.5) – No Movement since the open

Hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes who is 10-1-1 as an Underdog in his career. If you use the metrics from the Regular Season, spread should have been -3 for SF, but using Playoff Metrics, KC should be the favorite. Even though KC is getting most of the money to start, I would imagine the public money to roll in on KC closer to gametime pushing the line to a Pick or even KC as a short favorite. So, if you like KC, bet the spread now. SF you can wait. KC Moneyline is pretty short value, but it will go down if the money comes in on the Chiefs towards Sunday. My recommendation is to Tease KC up to +8, as even if the 49ers do win, the game is expected to be a close one.

On the Total, KC has been an Under team all year long. KC’s D has been extremely tough in the 2nd half. Even when BUF was moving the ball on them all game long, KC held them to 7 points in the 2nd half and 0 in the 4th Quarter. So, 47.5 is a really good number, but the public usually bets the Over, so the Total will likely go up as we get towards Sunday. I think the logical play on the Teaser would be to tease the Total Up to 53.5 (then go Under) to pair with the KC +8 or wait as the money comes in on the Total pushing it up more and getting a better number.

MAIN PROPS

The Super Bowl is about Proposition Bets or Props – they are betting on outcomes happening which is more popular than the side or total. This year with a tight game it may be the best way to attack the game. In general, the saying is that “The Pros bet the Nos.” That means that if you see a No Prop, that is more likely, you will pay more juice, but it is much more likely to pay. So, in general the Nos and the Unders are more likely. Here are some props that I like and some more to consider betting (more Overs than Unders):

Passing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes – 259.5 Yards Passing Under (-113) – I don’t love it, but I think KC runs more often than they pass in this one.
  • Brock Purdy – 244.5 Yards Passing Over (-112) – I would not bet this, but for informational purposes. I do like Purdy Over 0.5 INTs (-120) – he always gives the D a chance for one.

Rushing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes – 24.5 Yards Rushing Over (-113) – I will bet this as Mahomes runs in critical moments
  • Isiah Pacheco – 64.5 Yards Rushing Over (-115) or Alt 79.5 Over (+180) – 159 yards rushing given up by SF D and Pacheco is key to a KC win
  • Christian McCaffrey – 90.5 Yards Rushing Over (-110) – it has gotten a little rich for me – See Below

Receiving Yards

  • George Kittle – 49.5 Yards Receiving Over (-106) or Alt 69.5 Over (+235) – I also like Kittle more than Kelce match up (+160 vs. Kelce -215)
  • Travis Kelce – 71.5 Yards Receiving Under (-112) – I think he will be the focus of those SF LBs
  • Rashee Rice – 66.5 Yards Receiving Over (-112) or Alt 79.5 Over (+155) – Big part of the game plan on Sunday

Receptions

  • George Kittle – 3.5 Over (-175) or Alt 4.5 Over (+138) – I like the Alt and Yardage both Over
  • Rashee Rice – 6.5 Over (-105) or Alt 7.5 Over (+175) – See above, 6.5 is good for me
  • Player to Record Longest Reception in the Game – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+1200) – I’ll be betting this one. He will get 2 shots in this game to do this.

Total Yards

  • Christian McCaffrey – 129.5 Total Yards Over (-112) – I like this better than the rushing prop. He will be a big focus for KC on the ground despite their regular season struggles, in the playoffs, they have stopped the run when needed. I like McCaffrey to catch the ball plenty, too, so Total Yards over rushing yards alone.
  • Deebo Samuel – 76.5 Total Yards Over (-113) or if you like SF to win the game – Alt 99.5 Over (+220) – SF needs to be creative versus this KC D, and that means Deebo everywhere on the field.

First TD Scorer

I’ve been lucky to hit this a couple of times this year. I was able to hit the NFC Championship game, and here is the logic. SF will defer if they win the toss. KC may defer, but I think Reid takes the ball if they win the toss. So, I’m going to focus on KC players to score the 1st TD prop.

  • Isiah Pacheco +510
  • Travis Kelce +600
  • Rashee Rice +800 – I’ll put a little cash on Rice.
  • Patrick Mahomes +1800
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling +2500
  • Jerick McKinnon +2800 – Not sure he is going to play, but he is always used in the red zone – a great long shot if he does suit up.
  • If you do like SF to score a TD first, then McCaffrey is a short +290, Deebo +650, Aiyuk +850, Kittle +950, Purdy or Jauan Jennings +2500

MVP

A good way to hedge the game is by betting on the MVP. Now, QBs are typically the MVP, but what is the fun in that. SF winning probably has McCaffrey or Purdy, but I’d go deeper. For KC, Mahomes is a virtual lock and after the AFC Title Game Kelce had, I’d look elsewhere for value.

Here is the list:

  • Patrick Mahomes +135
  • Brock Purdy +210
  • Christian McCaffrey +450
  • Travis Kelce +1400
  • Deebo Samuel +2500 (down every time I check) – I loved him at +3500.
  • Isiah Pacheco +3000
  • Brandon Aiyuk +3300
  • George Kittle +4000 – I like him a lot.
  • Rashee Rice +4000
  • Chris Jones +5000
  • Nick Bosa +6600

EXOTIC GAME PROPS

You can typically find tons of crazy props, and I think DraftKings has the best set. Here are a few that pique my interest:

  • Total Yards of Longest Field Goal Made: Over 47.5 (-114)
  • Player to Record an Octopus: which means the same player who scores the TD will score a 2 Point Conversion immediately afterwards – Yes +1200 (I may put a little cash on that)
  • QB to Record a Reception: a la Lamar Jackson last week or a Philly Special Play – Yes +1150

SILLY PROPS

  • National Anthem Length: 90.5 Seconds – +102 Over/-128 Under
  • Taylor Swift Props – There are 89 or more at some books
  • Coin Toss: -103 Heads/Tails – for those that can’t help themselves
  • Team to Win Coin Toss and Game: KC Yes +310/SF Yes +255
  • Commercial Props – You can bet on which commercial is first (after the coin toss typically), or which are shown first – my favorite is Animal vs Baby or Beer vs. Snack – also a great way to get the action going with friends at the party
  • Gatorade Color: Hard to find in the States, only off shore, but here you go:
    • Purple +225
    • Blue +275
    • Yellow +450
    • Green +450
    • Red +500
    • Orange +500
    • Clear +1000

PREDICTION

The 49ers have a better A Game than the Chiefs, that is certain. The Wegs Playoff Index has been pretty good at predicting winners (8-4) in the playoffs – besides the Chiefs (who account for 2 of those losses). When healthy and on full throttle, SF is more talented and has a much higher ceiling than KC. However, I think the coaching edge goes to KC with Andy Reid and DC Steve Spagnuolo. The question is can Brock Purdy play his best game as a pro, and will the SF D finally get their act together to play like they did in the regular season? The main thing that scares me in this matchup is that Vegas rarely loses money on the Super Bowl. 76% of the money is on the Chiefs and the spread is not moving, which is a clear indication that respected money is coming in on the 49ers. That worries me a lot to be on the Chiefs side of this game. The whole world and Taylor Swift fans want to see the Chiefs win. That is when Vegas cleans up, as we all know those casinos are not built on hopes and dreams, but on analytics.

For the purposes of this article, I’ll go against the Index Pick of SF (and Vegas) and ride with Mahomes and KC winning the game outright (Cover +2) and the Under 47.5 for my official picks. However, besides my Teaser which I bet a week ago, I’m going to Live Bet the game. If SF comes out strong, then I’ll get a better price on the KC ML or if KC gets out early like they have the first 3 playoff games, then I can get SF at a Plus Price on the ML or good Spread number. I think SF can come back like other games. Would I be surprised if SF smashes the Chiefs? I would not, as I said, if they can play their best then they can win by 10+, but I need to see it to believe it. Personally, pre-flop, I’ll bet a SF player to win the MVP as my hedge to the KC win (I’ve loved Deebo for this, but that Kittle number is screaming at me). Again, all we can hope for is a competitive game here.

Enjoy the big game.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.