College Hoops: Mid-Season Preview

With the NFL winding down, it’s time to jump into College Basketball. In less than 7 weeks, we will have Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament (Sunday, March 17th). Now is the time to do the work in advance of your office bracket. I’ll go over the weekly format, and then dig into the teams to watch this season in this preview article.

Weekly Format

Kenpom Review – I’ll do a KenPom review of the top teams versus the AP Top 25. What is KenPom you say? Well, KenPom is the dominant metric system to evaluate teams in College Hoops. There are definite predictors of who will win the NCAA Tournament in KenPom’s metrics. So, I’ll evaluate the teams’ perception (AP Poll) versus how they are playing on the court.

https://kenpom.com/

Key Matchups – The other part of each post will be to highlight top matchups in the large conferences. However, I’ll typically look to the mid-major conferences for top team matchups so we can be aware of those Cinderella teams come March.

Bubble Watch – One month from Selection Sunday, I’ll dig deep into Bracketology and review both Joe Lunardi’s bracket (ESPN) and Jerry Palm’s bracket (CBS). That review will eventually look at the top seeds, but the last 10-15 teams who need to play their way into the 68 team field.

Major Conference Review

Here are the teams to watch in each conference.

Atlantic Coast Conference – the ACC is historically a great conference come tournament time. This year we have 2 top squads, but not a deep conference.

• UNC Tarheels (17-4, 9-1 ACC) – The Heels are back at the top of college basketball. Duke vs. UNC Part 1 happens this Saturday, 2/3 in Chapel Hill, NC.
• Duke Blue Devils (16-4, 7-2 ACC) – Potential Final Four team, if they can play better D against good opponents like UNC.
• UVA Cavaliers (15-5, 6-3 ACC) – Solid record, but poor metrics.
• Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13-6, 5-3 ACC) – Seems like a tournament team, but will need to close strong for a bid.
• Bubble Teams:
  • Florida State (12-8, 6-3 ACC) – Poor non-conference record puts them well out for now.
  • Syracuse Orangemen (14-7, 5-5 ACC) -Always on the Bubble
  • NC State Wolfpack (14-7, 6-4 ACC) – Coach Kevin Keats may get this team in.
  • Miami Hurricanes (14-7, 5-5 ACC) -The Canes run last year is not forgotten, but not the same team this season.
  • Clemson Tigers (14-6, 4-5 ACC) – Good metrics in KenPom (29th Overall), but have stumbled out of the gates in the ACC.

Big East – There are always teams competing for the title.

• UConn Huskies (18-2, 8-1 Big East) – The defending champs are #1 in the AP and Top 3 in KenPom. They are definitely a potential repeat champ.
• Creighton Bluejays (16-5, 7-3 BE) – Ranked 13th in AP, but they have been slowing down lately.
• Marquette Golden Eagles (16-5, 7-3 BE) – #9 in the AP and gaining a lot of traction with a solid 14th rating in KenPom. They are a dark horse this year for Coach Shaka Smart.
• Bubble Teams
  • Seton Hall Pirates (14-8, 7-4 BE) – The Hall is a solid squad, if they can go over .500 in the league then they will get in.
  • St. John’s Red Storm (13-7, 5-4 BE) – Head Coach Rick Pitino has his team playing better as the season goes on – 32 in KenPom and climbing.
  • Providence Friars (14-6, 5-4 BE) – No Coach Cooley this year, but the core of the team is still there.
  • Butler Bulldogs (14-7, 5-5 BE) – The Bulldogs will need help to get in, but their metrics are solid – they travel to Creighton on Friday, 2/2.

Big 12 – Such a deep league again with likely 8-10 teams in the Big Dance

• Houston Cougars (19-2, 6-2 B12) – In Y1 in the Big 12, the Cougars are taking the league by storm and are #4 in the country. They go to Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, 2/3 to take on the Jayhawks.
• Texas Tech Red Raiders (16-4, 5-2 B12) – Red Raiders are #15 in AP and score better than past teams.
• Iowa State Cyclones (16-4, 5-2 B12) – The Cyclones are #12 in AP and ready to make a deep run this year behind 4th rated D in KenPom.
• Kansas Jayhawks (17-4, 5-3 B12) – Suddenly, the Jayhawks will have to earn the league title with so much competition, but even with 3 league losses, they are #8 in the AP. Transfer Hunter Dickinson helps.
• TCU Horned Frogs (16-5, 5-3 B12) – Always a salty squad and #25 in the AP.
• Kansas State Wildcats (14-7, 4-4 B12) – Yet another team that in another conference would be a leader, but….
• Oklahoma Sooners (16-5, 4-4 B12) – Head Coach Porter Mosier has a good team, but after going 12-1 in non-conference is taking lumps in the Big 12.
• Baylor Bears (14-5, 3-3 B12) – #18 in the AP, but tied for 4th in the Big 12, such is life.
• BYU Cougars (15-5, 3-4 B12) – Another new entrant that is playing tough with very good metrics (9th in KenPom overall), but 3-4 to start in league play. Still #22 in the AP, though.
• Bubble Teams
  • Texas Longhorns (14-7, 3-5 B12) – Not the same high flying team as in 2023, so will need to play their way in.
  • Cincinnati Bearcats (14-6, 3-4 B12) – A good team that would do well in another conference – 17th in KenPom on D.
  • UCF Knights (12-7, 3-4 B12) – another new entrant that may be able to squeak in with the tough Strength of Schedule

Southeastern Conference – The SEC isn’t as deep as last year, but the top teams are real contenders.

• Alabama Crimson Tide (14-6, 6-1 SEC) – Bama is talented, but struggled in the non-conference, but are #24 AP with much better metrics in KenPom – 8th Overall and #1 on Offense.
• South Carolina Gamecocks (18-3, 6-2 SEC) – South Carolina isn’t as strong as the other SEC teams in KenPom (45 in KenPom), but they keep winning.
• Auburn Tigers (16-4, 5-2 SEC) – Head Coach Bruce Pearl has another tough squad. #16 in AP and 7th in KenPom.
• Kentucky Wildcats (15-4, 5-2 SEC) – Coach Cal is always putting a squad together, but can they bust through the early round outs this year? #10 in AP – 9 on Offense, but 70 on D in KenPom.
• Tennessee Vols (15-5, 5-2 SEC) – That D is great (2nd in KenPom), so if they can score watch out (Currently 19th in KenPom) – #5 in AP. The Vols go to Lexington to take on Kentucky on Saturday, 2/3.
• Ole Miss Rebels (18-3, 5-3 SEC) – Great record in non-conference, but now they have to run the gauntlet in the SEC.
• Bubble Teams
  • Florida Gators (14-6, 4-3 SEC) – a perpetual bubble team the past few years
  • Georgia Bulldogs (14-6, 4-3 SEC) – Not just a football school, so they can grab a berth.
  • Texas A&M Aggies (12-8, 3-4 SEC) – The Aggies are going to need to dazzle in conference play.
  • Miss State Bulldogs (14-7, 3-5 SEC) – The Bulldogs are a good metrics team (32nd Overall in KenPom – 11th on D), but can it translate to wins.

Big Ten – not as deep as other years, but definitely a contender in their midst

• Wisconsin Badgers (16-4, 8-1 B10) – The #6 Badgers are back to being competitive, and the big showdown in Madison against Purdue on Sunday, 2/4 will have to show the rest of the world what’s been happening.
• Purdue Boilermakers (19-2, 8-2 B10) – After that horrible first round exit, the Boilers are trying to be like UVA and win it with the same squad the following year. #2 in the AP and high in KenPom (2nd Overall), but we will see in March.
• Illinois Fighting Illini (16-5, 7-3 B10) – #14 Illinois is a good team, so we will see if they can advance in March.
• Northwestern Wildcats (15-5, 6-3 B10) – Coach Chris Collins has a team this year. I’ll be rooting for them.
• Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-6, 5-5 B10) – The Huskers started strong in non-conference at 10-0, but the B10 schedule has them reeling.
• Bubble Teams
  • Maryland Terps (13-8, 5-5 B10) – Over .500 in the league usually gets you in.
  • Michigan State Spartans (13-8, 5-5 B10) – Sparty started strong, but they are struggling in league play.
  • Indiana Hoosiers (13-8, 5-5 B10) – a 3 game losing streak didn’t help their cause
  • Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-7, 4-5 B10) – They will need to improve to get in.

Pacific 12 – The PAC 12 may be in its last year, but there is a chance they can get a title to add to the Tournament of Champions resume.

• Arizona Wildcats (15-5, 6-3 PAC12) – #11 Arizona is a national championship threat at 5th in KenPom, but like most years, they have not been able to dominate the league even if it is watered down.
• Oregon Ducks (14-6, 6-3 PAC12) – Terrible metrics (50th Overall in KenPom and 93rd on D), but they always are tough in the league.
• Colorado Buffaloes (15-6, 6-4 PAC12) – The Buffs are pretty good, but how good?
• Washington State Cougars (15-6, 6-4 PAC12) – Really a bubble team, but the Cougs have a good record. Strength of Schedule will hurt them in the long run.

Other Teams to Track out of the Mid-Majors

• Mountain West – not a Major conference, but the class of the mid-majors
  • Utah State Aggies (19-2, 7-1 MWC) – #17 in AP Utah State is a team to watch come March – they will be a higher than normal seed in the bracket.
  • New Mexico Lobos (18-3, 6-2 MWC) – #19 in AP Lobos have a really good team this year – also Top 19 in KenPom, the highest rated MWC team – is a team to watch for sure.
  • San Diego State Aztecs (16-5, 5-3 MWC) – The 2023 Runner Up is always a tough out in the Big Dance and still Top 21 in KenPom.
  • Boise State Broncos (14-6, 5-2 MWC) – The Broncos are a good team on D – 28th. They will be on the Bubble all year.
  • Colorado State Rams (16-5, 4-4 MWC) – A couple tough road losses have knocked my alma mater out of the Top 25. D needs to improve (at 78th in KenPom).
• West Coast Conference – Zags have dominated for 20 years, but they are vulnerable.
  • St. Mary’s Gaels (16-6, 7-0 WCC) – The Gaels are on top of the WCC, but they go to Spokane, WA to play the Zags Saturday, 2/3 to try and have the outright league lead.
  • Gonzaga Bulldogs aka Zags (16-5, 7-1 WCC) – Their metrics are still good (22nd Overall), but they did not dominate in the non-conference like past seasons.
  • Santa Clara Broncos (15-7, 6-1 WCC) – The Broncos got a big win over the Zags earlier this year at home, but they will need more wins to get in the Dance, like today at St. Mary’s on Wednesday, 1/31.

• Florida Atlantic Owls (17-4, 7-1 AAC) – The #20 Owls historic run last year puts them on the map with a lot of starters back. They should be in, but it is a lot different with a target on your back.
• Indiana State Sycamores (18-3, 9-1 MVC) – The Sycamores haven’t been on the radar since Larry Bird, but this team is good in both the metrics (37th Overall and 11th on O in KenPom) and the standings. The matchup versus Drake on Saturday, 2/3 will show me something.
• Dayton Flyers (17-3, 7-1 A10) – #21 Dayton is back to having a good team. The league isn’t half bad with teams like Richmond, VCU and Loyola to take the Atlantic 10. Likely a one bid league though.
• Princeton Tigers (15-2, 3-1 Ivy) – A true Cinderella in 2023 had a really strong non-conference, but have already lost in the Ivy League, maybe they can steal an at-large bid if they win out the rest of the way besides the title. Also 65 Overall in KenPom (32nd on Offense).

Enjoy the weekend’s games in absence of an NFL game.

Wegs