NFL: Then There Were Two

After 2 epic games, we only have 2 teams left with one game left in the season. It may not have been how it was predicted, but it was really entertaining.

Championship Sunday Recap

• Chiefs Own the AFC – The Chiefs have been in the AFC Title Game for 6 straight years going to 3 Super Bowls and losing only twice in OTs both times. This time in BAL, the Chiefs had to dig deep to play this talented unit in the Ravens in Baltimore. Well, KC came out prepared – their game plan was sound – QB Patrick Mahomes completed his first 11 passes on short passes to Kelce, Pacheco and Rice with some runs mixed in to methodically move the ball against the Ravens’ D. Future HOF TE Travis Kelce was great – 9 catches for 96 yards and a TD in the first half including 3 incredible catches on critical downs. The Chiefs built a lead that felt like more as they closed the first half with a FG giving them the 17-7 lead. The Ravens, on the other hand, had played a terrible half of football. For some reason OC Todd Monkin did not try to run the ball against the 28th ranked rushing D. So, in the 2nd half, I think we all expected adjustments. Instead, it was more of the same, this year’s likely MVP, Lamar Jackson (20 for 37 for 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 54 yards rushing and a Fumble) dropping back over and over again (2 RB carries in the 2nd half). However, the D limited KC to under 70 yards until the final drive (big 3rd down pass to WR Marques Valdes-Scantling). Still, critical BAL penalties, back to back turnovers and one last failed stop led to a Chiefs win at 17-10 despite not scoring in the 2nd half. The Chiefs go to their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years.
• 49ers Storm Back to Win – In watching this game, I’m not sure the best team won on Sunday. DET came out and pummeled the 49ers in the first half. They ran the ball down the throats of the SF D, as both RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs scored as well as big reverse to rookie WR Jameson Williams, and when the Lions kicked a late half FG, they led 24-7 at the half. The 49ers now had to make back to back 2nd half comebacks in the playoffs. This time, they got some help. After an opening drive FG to cut the lead to 14, DET drove to the SF 28, but opted to go for 4th and 2 instead of pushing the lead back to 3 scores, which failed. Then, with the ball at their own 45 yard line, SF’s QB Brock Purdy threw up a ball that should have been intercepted, but the ball bounced off the Lion player’s facemask went up in the air and WR Brandon Aiyuk dove and caught the ball at the Lions’ 4 yard line. Aiyuk caught a TD pass to cut the lead to 7 a few plays later, 24-17. Next, on the first play from scrimmage of the next drive a botched handoff to Gibbs resulted in a fumble recovered by SF at at the DET 24 leading to RB Christian McCaffrey TD to tie the game at 24-24 still in the 3rd Quarter. Another 3 and out, and SF drove to get a FG to take the lead 27-24 with 9:56 left to play. The Lions drove to the SF 30 and once again opted for a 4th and 3 try getting denied again instead of kicking a tying FG. SF scored yet again on a big drive to take the commanding lead, 34-24 with 3:02 remaining. DET drove for a late TD to cut the lead to 3, but botched the late game situation burning a timeout and failed to get the onside kick eliminating any real chance of winning. The 49ers won the game 34-31 on kneeldowns. SF gets a rematch against the Chiefs from 2019, and now have mounted 2 titanic comebacks to get there overcoming HC Kyle Shanahan’s historic tendencies while trailing.

Predictions: S/U 1-1 (8-4), ATS 1-1 (7-5), Totals 2-0 (8-4)

Early Super Bowl Information

Chiefs vs. 49ers (-1, 47.5 Total) Sunday, February 11th at 5:30 PM Central on CBS – The Line opened at -2.5 and immediately was bet down to -1 by Chiefs’ money. Going into the playoffs, SF was rated higher in most categories. However, one of the main categories that crippled the Chiefs this season was a -11 Turnover Differential. QB Patrick Mahomes has yet to turn the ball over in 3 playoff games. Plus, it took BAL until the 2nd half to record the first QB sacks on Mahomes. So, 10 playoff quarters without a sack of Mahomes. SF’s vaunted D has not been nearly as effective at getting pressure on their opponents in the past 5 games. Here are the matchups:

• KC Rush Offense vs. SF Rush Defense – KC Rush Regular Season (104.9 YPG) vs. Playoffs (127.3 YPG) – SF Regular Season (89.7 YPG) vs. Playoffs (159 YPG) – Here is where the Chiefs can exploit the 49ers. For some reason, SF is yielding almost 2x the amount of yards rushing than during the regular season. GB and DET ran the ball right at the 49ers, so I would expect the same from RB Isiah Pacheco in the Super Bowl.
• KC Pass Offense vs. SF Pass Defense – KC Passing Regular Season (246.4 YPG) vs. Playoffs (235.7 YPG) – SF Regular Season (214.2 YPG) vs. Playoffs (227 YPG). KC should be able to run the ball, but at some point, you will have to complete passes against this D. Fast LBs should help to cover Kelce and Pacheco, so the outside WRs will need to step up like rookie Rashee Rice is the guy and he has 2 weeks to get healthy. Mahomes will have a lot to do with this one, as the game plans have been great in all the playoff games.
• SF Rush Offense vs. KC Rush Defense – SF Rushing Regular Season (140.5 YPG) vs. Playoffs (133 YPG) – KC Regular Season (113.2 YPG) vs. Playoffs (113 YPG). The KC defense has been great the past 3 weeks, but it does not stop the run as effectively as the pass. BUF was able to gain over 180 yards on the ground. SF will need to stick to the run, unlike BAL to win the game. RB Christian McCaffrey should have a big game, especially if Willie Gay is out again.
• SF Pass Offense vs. KC Pass Defense – SF Pass Regular Season (257.9 YPG) vs. Playoffs (251.5 YPG) – KC Regular Season (176.5 YPG) vs. Playoffs (209.7 YPG) – This sets up to be a strength on strength match up. I think that here is where DC Steve Spagnolo will work to confuse QB Brock Purdy and prevent those scrambles that saved SF against DET. If KC can somehow slow down McCaffrey and put the game in Purdy’s hands, then KC will have the advantage.

Next week, I’ll dig into my predictions and which prop bets to target for the big game. Enjoy the week off.

Wegs