NFL: Championship Sunday

After a very entertaining Divisional Round, we only have 3 games left, which makes me sad a bit. Let’s hope that this week’s games live up to last week’s.

Divisional Round Recap

• Ravens Flex in the 2nd – The Texans came to play in the first half. In fact, they had a chance to lead at the half after holding down the Ravens to just 10 points and even taking a punt return to the house for a 10-10 tie. In the second half after a reported fiery speech by QB Lamar Jackson (152 yards passing, 2 TDs, 100 yards rushing, 2 TDs), BAL took care of business. They ran the ball at will against the Texans and were able to deny HOU on multiple occasions on their half of the field for a resounding 34-10 win. BAL will host its first Conference Title game since 1971 when they were the Baltimore Colts.
• 49ers Survive in the Rain – There were sloppy conditions on Saturday night, as the Green Bay Packers came in on a roll. That roll continued as the Pack really dominated most of the game taking a 21-14 lead late in the 3rd Quarter. HC Kyle Shanahan was 0-30 trailing in the 4th Quarter of games by 5 or more as a head coach, so down 21-14, the 49ers needed to change history. After a quick 3 and out, the SF D did what not many teams have been able to do the past 8 weeks – force a Jordan Love INT that set up a FG to cut the lead to 4 as the 4th Quarter began. After trading punts, RB Aaron Jones (18 carries, 108 yards) busted off a big run to set up a FG attempt that would give the Pack a 7 point advantage late in the 4th, but rookie K Anders Carlson hooked the 41 yard attempt to give new life to SF. Then, after what can only be said as a sub-par effort from QB Brock Purdy (23 of 39 for 252 yards, 1 TD), he played better. After a key drop by TE George Kittle (4 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD) on 2nd down, WR Brandon Aiyuk made an amazing grab on a low throw to convert the first down. Then, Purdy hit WR Chris Conley for his best pass of the game for another first down. Another late run by Purdy down inside the 10 yard line set up the RB Christian McCaffery TD (17 carries, 98 yards, 2 TDs – 7 catches for 30 yards) that put SF ahead with 1:07 left to play. The Packers had all 3 TOs, but after two first downs, Jordan Love (21 of 34, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) lost his mind throwing a ball running to his right across his body over the middle late (a Cardinal sin) for the game sealing INT, 24-21. The 49ers advance to another NFC Championship game even if they didn’t play their best game and WR Deebo Samuel’s healthy is in question.
• Lions Roar at Home – It was not the game we expected for the first 35 minutes as both teams played tight to the vest and it was a defensive struggle with the score tied, 10-10. Then, the fireworks started to fire. The Lions struck first with a 10 play, 64 yard drive to go ahead, 17-10 on a Craig Reynolds TD score on 4th and Goal. Followed by a 7 play, 75 yard drive to tie the game at 17-17 on a Rashad White score. The Lions entered the 4th Quarter with another TD from rookie sensation, Jamyr Gibbs (114 total yards, 1 TD) who shaked his way for a 31 yard TD to go up 24-17. TB finally couldn’t answer, but DET was still hot driving 89 yards on 10 plays to get up 2 TDs, 31-17 with 6:22 remaining. The Bucs had one more answer as they went 75 yards in 1:45 to get the TD to WR Mike Evans (8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD), but the 2 point conversion pass to Evans (and cover play) failed. The Bucs were able to force a punt, but this time TB’s QB Baker Mayfield’s (26-41 for 349 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) pass forced into coverage was picked to seal the 31-23 win and the first DET trip to the NFC Championship game since 1991.
• Chiefs Still Rule – Yep, I, for one, thought the Bills would finally be able to vanquish the great Chiefs with the game in BUF. However, it was apparent early, that the Bills’ depleted D was no match for QB Patrick Mahomes (17 of 23, 215 yards, 2 TDs). Still, the Bills’ Josh Allen was on point and the Bills were able to stack rushing yards to build a 17-13 lead at the half. Now, the Chiefs’ D had averaged giving up 7 points or less to everyone all season. That was challenged even after the Chiefs opened the 2nd with a quick, 6 play, 75 yard drive resulting in one of 2 Travis Kelce TDs on the day (as his brother Jason with his shirt off was celebrating and pounding beers next to Taylor Swift), giving KC the 20-17 lead. No worries, Josh Allen (186 yards passing, 1 TD, 72 yards rushing, 2 TDs) took the team down the field again on a 15 play, 75 yard, 8 minute, 25 second drive with a laser TD pass to WR Khalil Shakir (7 catches, 44 yards, 1 TD) to take the lead into the 4th Quarter, 24-20. KC would answer again with an Isiah Pacheco TD (15 carries, 97 yards, 1 TD) to give the Chiefs the lead with 14:20 left to play. After a 3 and out, the Bills tried to run a fake punt at 4th and 5 from their own 30 yard line, which was denied. Pacheco ran the ball down to the 2 yard line, then WR Mecole Hardman fumbled out of the end zone on a reverse giving BUF hope, but another quick 3 and out giving the ball back to Mahomes. Still, finally, the Bills D held the Chiefs forcing a punt with 8:23 seconds to play – that’s right more than half the quarter. BUF would march methodically converting on 3rd down, then 2 series later Josh Allen would run to convert a 4th down, but fumble the ball only to be recovered by the Bills to give them a 2nd new life. Another 3rd down conversion put the ball at the KC 27 yard line with 2:42 seconds to play. After a short run, the game went to the 2 minute warning with 2nd and 9 from the 26. Allen missed Shakir open in the end zone on 2nd down and then threw the ball away on 3rd down setting up a 44 yard FG attempt by K Tyler Bass, reminiscent of the Bills’ first Super Bowl with the Giants to tie the game. Bass shanked the kick to the right destroying the Bills’ faithful, as the Chiefs ran out the clock to end the game, 27-24, and cement their 6th straight AFC Championship appearance. The Bills are now 0-3 versus the Chiefs in the playoffs, despite racking up 37:03 in time of possession. The Chiefs were an astounding 7.7 Yards/Play (with the kneel downs).

Predictions: Not a great week, but S/U 3-1, ATS 1-3, Totals 2-2 – still 3 of 4 great games coming down to the 4th Quarter and near final possessions.

Championship Sunday Previews

• Chiefs at Ravens (-3.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/28 at 2 PM Central on CBS – What can I say, it’s a great match up. I wanted the Bills-Ravens, but given how banged up the Bills’ D was, KC is a tougher matchup. The Ravens are better on paper on both sides of the ball – Offense: 370.4 YPG to 351.3 YPG, 28.4 PPG to 21.8 PPG, Defense – KC has an edge 289.8 YPG to 301.4 YPG, but BAL D’s 16.5 PPG to 17.3 PPG is better, finally TO differential is +12 for BAL and -11 for KC, but are you going to bet against Mahomes? Mahomes is now 9-1-1 as an underdog. So, BAL is the better team, not sure that is up for debate, but KC is the Champ with the best QB of the era. The Ravens will need to dictate to KC, as DC Steve Spagnolo was able to shutdown the Bills late by making BUF one dimensional – can Lamar and the Ravens’ OC Todd Monkin adjust on the fly? Not sure yet. I do think the BAL D is much better than MIA and BUF, so the KC resurgent offense will not flourish, especially RB Isiah Pacheco, but if Mahomes does not get pressure (he has not been sacked yet in the postseason), then this game will come down to a late drive. BAL cannot allow that if they want to get to the Super Bowl. Full disclosure, I have a BAL futures ticket of +1200 to win the Super Bowl, so I need to bet on the Chiefs moneyline (+160) here to hedge, but the official pick is BAL wins the game. It seems like lunacy to go against Mahomes getting points, but I’d do it, because if BAL wins they will win at margin (-3.5 – hate the hook, so again all logic tells you to take Mahomes and the Chiefs but it’s the Ravens year). Total is Under 44 in this one.
• Lions at 49ers (-7, 51 Total) – Sunday, 1/28 at 5:30 PM on FOX – The Lions are not just happy to be here. HC Dan Campbell and this bunch think they can win it. In fact, they have nothing to lose. SF was on the verge of defeat, and mainly because the Offense looked pedestrian in the rain. DET’s pass D is not great, but they can stop the run. So, will HC Kyle Shanahan be less conservative in this game knowing that DET can score points? I hope so. I think the 49ers are the better team, and that is evident by the spread, but make no mistake about it, if the 49ers bring their B game like they did on Saturday, they can lose this one. This game can certainly be a blow out, but if Goff plays decent outdoors in favorable weather, then DET can hang in there. The spread is a little heavy for my liking, as I have this as a -5.5 margin. So, if it stays at -7 or higher, then ATS I like the Lions. Again full disclosure, I hold a pre-season ticket for the Lions to win the NFC at +1000, so I will be betting on the SF moneyline (-315), and they should win this game. SF to win, DET +7, Total is Over 51.

One more big weekend before the bye week and Super Bowl.

Wegs