NFL: Divisional Round Preview

Wild Card Weekend was indeed wild. It is traditionally the hardest to predict, but the Divisional Round is a little more in line with expectations. One thing that makes the playoffs difficult is the polarization of games, when teams lose they seem to lose badly. Let’s see if this week will be different.

Wild Card Weekend Recap

• HOU Destroys CLE – So much for the #1 D, as HOU lit up that D for big play after big play in the first half. For some reason, CLE’s D did not travel in 2023, and Saturday was no different. Flacco looked ok in the first half, but in the 2nd half, trying to bring the Browns back, he threw back to back pick 6s that opened the flood gates for HOU in the 45-14 win. HC Demeco Ryans and CJ Stroud enter into very rare air as a rookie-head coach combo to ever win a playoff game – the last time was 2008 (Jets – Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez and Ravens – Jon Harbaugh/Joe Flacco).
• KC Freezes Fins – MIA has not been great in the cold in their history, but let’s not forget it was cold for both teams. Still, KC racked up over 400 yards of Offense (even if they settled for 4 FGs in the Red Zone), but MIA just didn’t have it against KC on Offense in the 26-7 loss.
• Cowboys Embarrassed – Green Bay came in 5-0 playing in Jerry’s World, and in the first half, after wide open WRs and rushing TDs, the Pack built a 27-0 near the end of half, shocking the Cowboys’ faithful. In the second half, DAL mounted a minor comeback late, but it was just too little too late, as DAL’s D got lit up for 41 points (one TD was a Dak Prescott pick 6). RB Aaron Jones and his 3 TDs plus big yardage makes him the leading opponent rusher in DAL in history in Jerry’s World. DC Dan Quinn clearly had his mind on a new coaching gig versus prepping his team. McCarthy should be fired this week.
• Lions Outlast the Rams – Finally, we got a good game after 3 blowouts. DET carved up the Rams’ D in the first half on 3 straight TD drives to build a lead. Yet, QB Matthew Stafford was so good in this game, even though he got nearly knocked out in the 2nd half. Still, the real star was the rookie Rams’ WR Puka Nacua who was unstoppable, 9 catches, 181 yards and a TD. Unfortunately, the Rams bogged down in the red zone 3 times leading to 3 FGs instead of TDs that cost the Rams the outright win. DET gets their first playoff win in 32 years!! That’s right, 32. So, the monkey is off their back with the 24-23 win, and they will host another playoff game with the DAL loss.
• Bills Get It Done – Bills’ Mafia had to clear the snow from the stadium after the game was moved from Sunday to Monday on their own. On the field, the Bills’ O came out hot scoring 3 TDs to jump up 21-0 cashing in on some PIT TOs. Give the Steelers credit for clawing back and getting within 7 at 24-17 in the 4th Quarter. However, BUF was able to close the game strong and win the game, 31-17.
• Bucs Shutdown Eagles – The Eagles limped into the MNF matchup, and it looked like the last 6 weeks where PHI was 1-5. TB went up and down the field early to get out to a 16-3 lead. The Eagles made a big play to make it close at the half (16-9), but their inability to run the ball and tackle Bucs’ WRs let the Bucs run away with this one, 32-9. Potential major shake up after this loss with the coaching staff in PHI at least at the coordinator level.

Predictions: Good start despite the crazy outcomes: S/U 4-2, ATS 5-1, Totals 4-2

Divisional Round Matchups

• Texans at Ravens (-9, 45 Total) – Saturday, 1/20 at 3:30 PM Central on ESPN/ABC – The upstart Texans will not just be happy to be there with QB CJ Stroud under center, but the Ravens are some dudes. He may make some plays for sure. I do expect them to score some points, but that HOU D is just not good enough to slow down the Ravens enough to win the game. BAL will be rocking with this game, and CJ will make one mistake late to cost them the game. BAL wins by 7, HOU covers +9, Total Over 45.
• Packers at 49ers (-10, 50 Total) – Saturday, 1/20 at 7:15 PM on FOX – Can GB’s QB Jordan Love do his best Brock Purdy impression and take his team to the NFC Title Game? I really don’t think so. SF’s weakness on D is in their secondary, so I do expect some plays to be made outside by WRs Reed, Watson and Doubs. However, SF has a better D line than most teams and will stop the run in this game limiting the play action we saw this past weekend in DAL. Plus, GB’s D is still garbage, which is my only hesitation betting the Pack in this game with the points. SF may score 40 on Saturday. I expect Purdy to play well and Shanahan to have a good game plan to exploit it with all the weapons. SF wins the game for sure, that -10 is such a big number though, so I’ll do the same as last week GB +10 since the back door will be wide open most of the game assuming Love will play well again. I do think the game is in his hands, I expect RB Aaron Jones to be shut down. Total is Under 50.
• Bucs at Lions (-6, 49 Total) – Sunday, 1/21 at 2 PM Central on NBC – The Bucs looked great at home against the Eagles, but the Lions are a team that plays together. I do think it will be a tough matchup for the Lions’ O – Todd Bowles’ D is so different than other teams that it is more in game adjustments than pre-game plan that determines success. However, the Lions’ D should be able to slow down the Bucs. The Lions commit to stopping the run first, so Evans and Godwin may feast. I see a pretty high scoring game in this one. I do like the Lions to win the game, but I’m a little confused by the line, as I have it at -3.5 or -4 for DET. Perhaps, TB played their best game on MNF. I’m going to stick with my numbers and have TB +6, Over 49.
• Chiefs at Bills (-2.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/21 at 5:30 PM Central on CBS – The Bills get a chance to host the Chiefs this time in the playoffs. In fact, QB Patrick Mahomes will play his first road playoff game in his career. The Bills have a better offense for sure, but that Chiefs’ D is really good and BUF’s QB Josh Allen will need to play clean to win. I do like the Bills to win the game, but hopefully, we get another classic game coming down to the final possession. I like BUF to win, Cover -2.5 and Total Under 45.5.

4 Great Games!

Wegs