NFL: It’s Playoff Time

We have gone through 18 weeks of injuries, comebacks and close calls to get our playoff teams.

Week 18 Recap

• Steelers Get to Playoffs – Who knew Mason Rudolph would be the answers to the PIT offensive woes. Even in a torrential rain storm, Rudolph completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards and a TD to lift the Steelers back in the playoffs with the 17-10 win (and Jags loss).
• Texans Hold on the Berth – It was essentially a play in game on Saturday night, and QB CJ Stroud (20 of 26 for 264 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was ready for Prime Time. The Texans had to survive a late drive and 4th down attempt deep in their territory to get the 23-19 win, earning them a playoff berth (and later the AFC South Title).
• Jags Fall Apart – Well, the Jags were 8-3 and had a chance on MNF to stake their claim to the 1 Seed. 1-5 later, the Jags miss the playoffs entirely with the lone win over a terrible CAR team. The Titans got their just revenge for last year’s finale when they were knocked out to return the favor in their 28-20 win. The Titans we know and love will not be around next year (Tannehill and Henry), but hopefully Vrabel stays. In JAC, a lot of questions surround whether Trevor Lawrence who played hurt down the stretch is worth the super contract he is due. Until next year Jags.
• Saints Had A Shot – The Saints took care of business at home versus ATL. They won the game easily, but the game ended on some controversy as instead of kneeling at the 2 yard line, Jameis Winston handed the ball off to Jamaal Williams for a late TD (his first on the season). ATL’s HC Arthur Smith was not happy about it, but he was the first head to roll being fired by ownership late Sunday night.
• Packers Still Own Bears – The Pack have not lost to my Bears since 2018, and on Sunday, it was more of the same. Despite turnovers and trips in the red zone, CHI could not get in the end zone which led to the 17-9 loss at Lambeau. With the win, GB gets the 7 Seed in the playoffs and a chance to make some noise.
• Eagles Reeling – Not unlike the Jags, the Eagles once 10-1 go 1-5 down the stretch to only win 11 games – a near impossible feat. In their abysmal 27-10 loss to the Giants, QB Jalen Hurts injured a finger on his throwing hand and WR AJ Brown left the game injured. The SB runner ups seem to finally have hit the bottom.
• Bills Take Out Fins – BUF closed out the regular season with a big win at MIA on SNF, but it really took an almost ill-advised 96 yard punt return by Deonte Harty to get the Bills going by tying the game. Josh Allen despite 3 TOs and a bad decision at the end of the first half was able to lead a TD drive in the 4th quarter to take the lead for good and cementing the AFC East crown and 2 Seed.

Week 18 Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 2-2, Totals 1-3

On the season, my preseason pickings was good game to game. I finished the year: 159-113 (58.46%). 4 Teams right on their records: BUF, DAL, NO, SEA. Only 4 teams in each conference predicted in correctly. That’s not great, but it was a crazy year.

Biggest surprises: Rams 10-7 (4-13 prediction), Raiders 8-9 (4-13 after McDaniels firing), Ravens 13-4 (9-8), Texans 10-7 (4-13), Browns 11-6 (6-11).

Greatest Disappointments: Jags 9-8 (13-4 prediction), Falcons 7-10 (11-6 – Smith fired), Bengals 9-8 (13-4, but no Burrow), Broncos 8-9 (11-6), Patriots 3-14 (7-10 – Belichick likely out), Chargers 5-12 (10-7 Staley fired), Jets 7-10 (13-4 – Rodgers injury).

Wegs Playoff Index

In the playoffs, I reset the Index with only the 14 teams that qualified. With that I also like to look at the teams with the most Top 3 or Bottom 3 marks to determine both game to game results and the Super Bowl winner. Here you go:

Super Bowl winners rarely come from the Bottom 9-14, so I would make the cutoff on this list the Browns at 8, but this year I would be surprised if we had a winner outside of the Top 4 teams: BAL, SF, DAL and BUF (which happen to be the Top 2 Seeds in each conference). Either way, the Index has predicted games straight up at 70% for the past 14 years. There are outliers like the NY Giants or the Manning led Broncos (who’s Offense was terrible). However, you need to have at least one category in the Top 3 traditionally to win it. So, barring a miracle cure for PHI, I don’t see them getting back in the Bowl.

Full Playoff Predictions

Always a difficult thing to do, but I’ve run through the match ups, and if you have to fill out a bracket, here is what I would have:

AFC

Wild Card (I’ll go into the Games – Spreads and Totals below)

• 2 Bills over 7 Steelers
• 3 Chiefs over 6 Dolphins
• 5 Browns over 4 Texans

Divisional Round

• 1 Ravens over 5 Browns
• 2 Bills over 3 Chiefs

Championship Round

• 1 Ravens over 2 Bills

I could see the Browns making a run with their D, but that D has not been the same on the road and Flacco has turned the ball over too much for me to make that happen. HOU could take them in the Wild Card possibly. So, to me, despite Patrick Mahomes, I think the Bills and Ravens can beat them. So, chalky selections, but BAL over BUF.

NFC

Wild Card

• 2 Cowboys over 7 Packers
• 3 Lions over 6 Rams
• 4 Bucs over 5 Eagles

Divisional Round

• 1 49es over 4 Bucs
• 2 Cowboys over 3 Lions

Championship

• 1 49ers over 2 Cowboys

Again, a little chalky for my liking, but you do have dangerous teams in the Packers and Rams here. I think the Eagles are cooked. Sure, they are favored at TB, but they are wounded and their D is just bad. Even with upsets here, it will take a major injury in SF for them not to reach the SB. They have been the best team for most of the season in either conference.

Super Bowl

Ravens over 49ers

This is the hardest game to pick. SF could definitely avenge their loss to BAL last month, and I think top to bottom, they have a better roster. Unfortunately, I’m not a Brock Purdy believer. He will have to show me he can play against an elite defensive unit, especially from behind. If BAL takes an early lead, then I do not believe he can bring them from behind. He can win the game if SF scores early and can run the rock with McCaffery. So, I’ll write more about this match up if it actually happens, but for now, the chalkiest of my picks ever in the 2 One Seeds and my top Index pick winning it.

Wild Card Weekend Matchups

• Browns at Texans (+2.5, 44.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/13 at 3:30 PM Central on NBC – The Texans earned their spot, and they certainly can win this game at home. The Browns D is not the same on the road, that is for sure, but Flacco has been playing well. There is an air about this Browns’ team that they could make noise, so we get a really good first match up here. On paper, these teams are really close for me, so I like the number for the Texans, but I just think Myles Garrett will relish his chance to be back in the playoffs. Flacco has turned the ball over a lot since returning, but has made up with it by throwing downfield for TDs. So, CLE win, CLE Covers -2.5, Total surprising Over 44.5. I think there will be points scored in this one, and we will have some real entertainment on Saturday afternoon. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans win, but I’ll take the better D.
• Fins at Chiefs (-4, 44 Total) – Saturday, 1/13 at 7 PM Central on Peacock (yeah I know I need to download the app, too) – I really want to back the Fins in this one, I do, as they are better on paper than the Chiefs. However, between the defensive injuries, the cold weather, and some familiarity with playing earlier this year, I have to take the Chiefs. The spread is probably too big, but I think MIA struggles to score in this game altogether. The good news for Fins’ fans is that the Chiefs are not going to run away with this one. It should be a tight game, so if Tyreek Hill can make a couple plays, they still have a shot. Still, stick with KC to win, Cover -4, Total Under 44.
• Steelers at Bills (-10, 36.5) – Sunday, 1/14 at Noon Central on CBS – Not a great match up for the Steelers here to play on the road in BUF. No TJ Watt in this game is huge. The number is really high though, so not a bad number to take. Still, I think the Bills’ Mafia will be fired up with their shirts off in the cold and QB Mason Rudolph will finally hit the wall against the Bills pass rush. PIT can keep it close if they feed Warren and Harris to slow down the rush, but I think even if Allen turns the ball over a couple times, Rudolph will do the same. BUF wins the game, Cover -10, Total Over 36.5.
• Packers at Cowboys (-7.5, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/14 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – DAL is tough at home, especially on D. The Pack should watch the SEA tape to see how they were able to beat the man coverage a lot, as GB’s WRs may be even better than SEA. QB Jordan Love has been playing very well with minimal TOs which will be essential versus the Boys. I just don’t see them winning this game. DAL should score rather easily against the Pack’s D and unless GB can line up and run the football, I think it could be a rough one. The spread seems high for sure, even though DAL has covered huge numbers at home. So, I’ll take DAL to win, GB +7.5 to cover, Total Under 50.5. Of course, if DAL does lose to GB, Mike McCarthy will likely be fired.
• Rams at Lions (-3, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/14 at 7 PM Central on NBC – The big storyline is QB Matthew Stafford returning to DET, while QB Jared Goff gets to face his old team and mentor, HC Sean McVay. The Rams O has been the story this year. Stafford and those WRs plus rookie RB Kyrien Williams, so it should be a fun game to watch with points. The DET D can definitely be had, but DET has not hosted a playoff game in years – like 1994. DET TE Sam LaPorta is questionable with a knee injury, which didn’t look good. The fans will be behind them, and the Rams D is not that great. I like the Lions to win the game, but Rams to Cover +3 (which was better at +3.5 ugh), Total Under 51.5 though. Rams can definitely win this one, and I think it will be the best game of the weekend.
• Eagles at Bucs (+3, 44 Total) – Monday, 1/15 at 7 PM Central on ABC – About 3 weeks ago, I would have been all over the Eagles in this game, but the Hurts’ injury (and AJ Brown, too) plus the D’s continued failings versus anyone has me on the Bucs. TB is not a great football team, but give QB Baker Mayfield credit for a bounce back year earning a contract for sure. The D will be salty enough to slow down the running attack. I just think the Eagles are fading away and will somehow lose this game. TB to win, Cover +3, Over 44.

Let’s start out hot in the playoffs.

Wegs