NFL: Make Or Break in Week 17

With only 2 games left, Week 17 set the table for key matchups that get us about 60% of the playoffs set.

Week 17 Recap

• Browns Do It – The modern Browns once they were re-established in CLE after the Ravens (formerly the Browns) left town, had only made the playoffs one time in 20+ years. So, this latest run powered by the arm of veteran QB Joe Flacco has been incredible. Flacco threw for over 300 yards for the 3rd straight game. The Browns D did their part, and they got the easy win, 37-20 to make their 2nd playoff appearance.
• Boys Get A Gift – The Cowboys played a tight game against the Lions, but QB Jared Goff drove the field late to get a TD to apparently tie the game at 20. However, DET went for 2 and the win only to get a questionable penalty called on a lineman in replays appeared to report as eligible. Still, DET opted to go for it again from the 7 yard line and got stopped giving DAL the win, 20-19.
• Ravens Take Names – After the huge win in SF, I, for one, thought there would be letdown against MIA. However, QB Lamar Jackson decided to make sure everyone knew he is the real MVP of the league with a stellar 5 TD passing day in a complete route of the Dolphins, 56-19.
• Saints Have a Prayer – TB had won 4 straight going in, but finally, the Saints played tough and won rather easily in TB, 23-13. Now, NO still needs to win and have a TB loss, but they staved off elimination for one more week.
• Eagles Blow It – PHI has not been the same in recent weeks, as the D has really given up big totals to most offenses. This week, AZ’s Kyler Murray, despite the flu, kept the pressure on the PHI D and mounted a late game drive to win the game outright, 35-31. The loss bumps PHI to the 5 Seed, as DAL now will win the NFC East with a win next week.
• PIT Keeps Going – A +3.5 underdog on the road at SEA, HC Mike Tomlin’s team continued its hot offense with 468 yards and 30 points to get the win and keep their hopes alive at the playoffs with the 30-23 win. SEA now is on the outside looking in.

Prediction: S/U 3-1, ATS 1-3, Totals 3-1 – Good basic prediction week on Straight Up and Totals, but Spreads were not great.

Injuries:

• Bucs – QB Baker Mayfield, Ribs (Questionable), CB Carlton Davis, Concussion (Questionable)
• Bills – QB Josh Allen, Neck (Questionable)
• Jags – QB Trevor Lawrence, Shoulder (Questionable)
• Dolphins – OLB Bradley Chubb, ACL (Out), RB Raheem Mostert, Knee (Questionable), WR Jaylen Waddle, Ankle (Questionable), QB Tua Tagovailoa, Shoulder (Questionable)
• Saints – RB Alvin Kamara, Ankle (Questionable), LB Nephi Sewell, ACL (Out)
• 49ers – RB Christian McCaffery, Calf (Out)
• Titans – QB Will Levis, Foot (Questionable)
• Falcons – QB Taylor Heinicke, Ankle (Questionable)
• Broncos – WR Courtland Sutton, Concussion (Questionable)
• Packers – WR Dontayvion Wicks, Chest (Questionable), WR Christian Watson, Hamstring (Questionable), WR Jayden Reed, Chest (Questionable)

Playoff Scenarios:

AFC

1. Ravens (13-3) – Already has locked up 1 Seed with best record and AFC North Title
2. Dolphins (11-5) – Win vs. BUF (at home) and will win the AFC East, Lose and they will drop to as low as the 6 Seed if CLE wins
3. Chiefs (10-6) – Chiefs cannot get to the 2 Seed with loss to BUF, so locked into 3 Seed with AFC West Title
4. Jags (9-7) – Win vs. TEN (at home) and will win AFC South, but can still make it with a loss and PIT loss but as the 6 Seed if BUF loses or 7 Seed if BUF wins
5. Browns (11-5) – Cannot win the AFC North, so locked into the 5 Seed
6. Bills (10-6) – Win at MIA and will win the AFC East and go up to the 2 Seed with win over KC, but can still make it with a loss if PIT loses, but can get jumped by HOU for the 6 Seed due to conference record
7. Colts (9-7) – Win vs. HOU (at home) to get in the playoffs, can win the AFC South with a win and JAC loss, also could qualify with a tie and PIT loss

Still a Chance:

• Texans (9-7) – Win at IND to get in the playoffs, can win the AFC South with a win and JAC loss
• Steelers (9-7) – Need to win at BAL and need a JAC loss or HOU-IND tie

NFC

1. 49ers (12-4) – Already has 1 Seed locked up with best record in NFC and NFC West Title
2. Cowboys (11-5) – Win at WAS to win the NFC East, but will fall to the 5 Seed with a loss and PHI win
3. Lions (11-5) – Basically locked in at 3 Seed unless they win vs. MIN and DAL and PHI both lose or tie – won the NFC North Title
4. Bucs (8-8) – Win at CAR or NO loss to win the NFC South Title, they can still make the Wild Card if they lose and NO wins, SEA, GB and MIN
5. Eagles (11-5) – Can win the NFC East with DAL loss and win at NYG, otherwise locked into 5 Seed
6. Rams (9-7) – In the playoffs, can fall to 7 Seed with a loss and GB win
7. Packers (8-8) – Win vs. CHI they are in up to 6 Seed with NO loss or a Tie with losses by SEA and NO, but will miss playoffs with a loss and NO or SEA win

Still A Chance:

• Seahawks (8-8) – Win at AZ and GB loss or tie
• Saints (8-8) – Win vs. ATL (at Home) and a TB loss to win the NFC South (4 Seed), also could make it with a win and GB loss or tie and SEA loss or tie
• Falcons (7-9) – Win at NO and loss by TB to win the NFC South Title otherwise, they cannot make the playoffs

Marquee Matchups in Week 18

• Texans at Colts (+1.5, 47.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/6 at 7:15 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – A playoff berth on the line here in the AFC South, both teams do still have a shot at the Division, too, but a win will get them in the playoffs. So, the line opened at even. There was an immediate move to HOU -1.5, which means money poured in on Stroud and the Texans. I like the Over 47.5 as both teams can score and they will be putting everything on the line here. Stroud has been great under pressure all year, but the Colts did win in HOU last time. The line move scares me a bit. I liked HOU at PK, so I’ll stick to them Covering -1.5 until this line moves closer to -3.
• Falcons at Saints (-3, 42 Total) – Sunday, 1/7 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Both teams need help to get in, but if Tampa struggles with Baker potentially out, then this game would be for the NFC South Title. The Saints are a better team than the Falcons, but Derek Carr is hard to trust. I like the Saints to win the game, but not cover the -3, so ATL +3, but NO to win. Total Under 42 (even though both teams will go all out in this one, they struggle to score a lot).
• Bears at Packers (-3, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/7 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Pack can win and get in, while the Bears have played great football in the 2nd half of the season. I like the Bears D against this Packers O, while the Packers D is not very good. Fields should make enough plays to get the win in this one, so I like the Bears to win and Cover +3. Total will be Over 44.5.
• Bills at Miami (+3, 50 Total) – Sunday, 1/7 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The game of the week is the last game of the regular season, as the AFC East is on the line here. The Bills are on a roll as they have let Josh Allen do it all, plus the D has picked up and gotten healthier as the season has progressed. MIA will be at home, but against tough teams, they have wilted. I still think they will play better than against BAL, but the line is right, BUF will win and Cover -3. Total Under 50.

Last games of the regular season, then the playoffs.

Wegs