NFL: Week 16 Still Not A Clear Picture

Usually by now, it is clear who the top teams are, but with big matchups squaring off and top teams falling, the last 2 weeks are going to matter.

Week 16 Recap

• Rams Pummel Saints – LAR has been a team on the rise all season. QB Matthew Stafford has been rolling making the offense function no matter what D. The score is not indicative of the dominance, as Carr led to late drives to get it closer at 30-22.
• Lions Win the North – After a hot start, DET has faltered down the stretch, but they came out gunning to a 17-7 lead fueled by more Nick Mullen TOs. Still, MIN took the lead 21-17 to start the 3rd Quarter. Then, rookie RB Jamyr Gibbs put the game out of reach with a 2nd TD in the 4th even though MIN had another shot ended by a 4th Mullen INT in the end zone for the 30-24 win.
• Fins Win at the Buzzer – Both DAL and MIA needed a win to prove themselves, well, someone had to win. It was a good game to watch, and give Tua and the O credit for sustaining a 12 play, 64 yard drive to get the GW FG as time expired, 22-20.
• Chiefs Aren’t Right – KC led 7-3 in the 2nd Quarter when in 7 seconds the game, and possibly their season turned on a dime. First, RB Isiah Pacheco botched a direct snap for a TD, then after the kick off, QB Patrick Mahomes threw a pick 6 to give the Raiders a 17-7 lead. KC tried to get back in it, but to no avail, and the frustration on the KC sideline between Kelce and Mahomes has completely blown up. Raiders won, 20-14 dropping the Chiefs to 9-6.
• Ravens Flex – After a quick 5 points after a weird safety on Lamar Jackson, the Ravens took over. Jackson extended plays with his legs and hitting receivers in stride (252 yards passing, 2 TDs, 45 yards rushing). However, the real story was QB Brock Purdy threw 4 INTs in critical situations. The Ravens pressure sacked SF 4 times leading to the 33-19 win. This potential Super Bowl preview left a lot of questions, except that Jackson stepped up in prime time.

Predictions: S/U: 2-2, ATS: 1-3, Totals: 3-1 – finally totals are coming around, but took a hit on Spreads this week.

Injuries:

• 49ers: QB Brock Purdy, Neck (Questionable)
• Jags: QB Trevor Lawrence, AC Joint (Questionable)
• Vikings: TE TJ Hockenson, Knee (Out)
• Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray, Illness (Questionable)

Index After Week 16

1. Ravens (12-3, 3.17 Index) – The Ravens beat up the 49ers in the big match up Saturday night. So, the 1 Seed is in their hands.
2. 49ers (11-4, 4.00) – Can we stop the Brock Purdy MVP talk now, please? SF will bounce back and likely take the 1 Seed, but it is important to see that SF is not as dominant as we thought.
3. Cowboys (10-5, 4.50) – The Boys look to be the 5 Seed in the NFC.
4. Dolphins (11-4, 5.67) – The Fins got a big win against a top team, so let’s see if they can do it again this week.
5. Bills (9-6, 7.33) – The Bills control their own destiny here.
6. Chiefs (9-6, 10.17) – The Chiefs O continues to be terrible, and KC is tied for 31st with a -10 TO Margin.
7. Saints (7-8, 11.17) – A bad loss at LA really puts them on the outside looking in.
8. Browns (10-5, 11.67) – Watch out, but with QB Joe Flacco the Browns’ O is in the Top 10 in Scoring now to go along with that #1 D in Yards Against.
9. Lions (11-4, 12.17) – It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions got the win and locked up the NFC North.
10. Rams (8-7, 13.00) – The Rams are the team no one wants to see in the playoffs. Top 7 in Yards and Top 8 in Scoring makes this team a fun one to watch.

Fantasy Championship

Hopefully, you have one or more teams in the title game of your league. If it is your first title game, know this – you do not control anything. All you can do do is play your best lineup and sit back and watch. You know your team better than the projections. So, if you have someone who has consistently produced for the past 5 weeks, then trust them in a tough match up. Play your studs and guys who go you here. Now, if you do have an injury (like me with TJ Hockenson), then either get someone on the wire with a good matchup or play the backup you trust. You will likely not win the title because of that decision, but you can lose it if you bench your guy who has scored every week for a slightly lower projection than a bench guy. Once you set it, forget it. At this point, it is all gravy, you are in the money – Congrats!

Marquee Matchups in Week 17

• Lions at Cowboys (-6, 53.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/30 at 7:15 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – It may be a foregone conclusion where these teams end up in the seeding, but not quite yet. The Lions can still be the 1 Seed, and the Cowboys need this win to keep any hope of the NFC East. The Boys almost kept their win streak after a loss alive in MIA, so why not get a new streak going. So, I do see DAL winning this game in Jerry World and covering the -6. That DAL pressure will be too much on the turf for Jared Goff. Total will go Under 53.5.
• Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5, 47 Total) – Sunday, 12/31 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Both teams are coming off of huge wins, and the winner would essentially be the 1 Seed in the AFC. I do like this Ravens team, but the travel schedule may have an effect here. Jacksonville to San Francisco to home is a lot of miles, while MIA has been home for weeks. I like BAL to win this game, but I would not be surprised if this number drops as the week goes on (already down from +4), so MIA to Cover +3.5. Total Over 47.
• Saints at Bucs (-3, 42 Total) – Sunday, 12/31 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – The Saints have one more shot in the NFC South. A Bucs win gets them the division. So, both teams are highly motivated in this one. It is hard to ignore what QB Baker Mayfield has done over the past 2 weeks, and on the flipside, Derek Carr is not a locker room favorite. So, the correct team is favored here, but is the spread too much…..I’ll stick with TB to win and Cover -3 to win the division. Total Over 42.
• Steelers at Seahawks (-3.5, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/31 at 3:05 PM on FOX – Two more teams that are desperate for wins to make the postseason. PIT Mason Rudolph shocked the world last week against CIN to get the big win, while SEA survived on the road. It is a tough call here, but I think -3.5 it too many for SEA to lay in this one. I will say PIT wins the game outright and covers +3.5. Total Over 41.5.

Two more weeks to go.

Wegs