NFL: Week 15 The Favorites Strike Back

The NFL is like a pendulum sometimes. One week we have almost all the Dogs coming through, but in Week 15, the Favorites won and covered at a big clip.

Week 15 Recap

• Raiders Shellac Chargers – It is not often when a team just flat out quits on their coach, but the Chargers did not come to play. The Raiders scored at will on both Offense and Defense – 63-0 at one point. Final score was 63-21. LAC’s HC Brandon Staley was finally fired – about time.
• Bengals Do It Again – Trailing 17-3 at the end of the 3rd Quarter, QB Jake Browning (324 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) started to throw it up to his WRs – the catch by WR Tee Higgins (4 catches, 61 yards, 2 TDs) at the 3 yard line and stretch over the goal line was an incredible play. CIN forces OT and eventually won, 27-24. CIN is on the right side of the AFC playoff bubble. MIN’s loss really hurts as the win would have essentially made them a lock for the playoffs.
• Lions Roar Back – The Broncos were finally exposed on Saturday as the Lions ran out to a 21-0 halftime lead and never looked back. Rookie TE Sam LaPorta scored 3 TDs in the 42-17 win.
• Browns Pull It Out – The Bears’ D played an incredible 3 quarters with 2 picks setting up both CHI TDs. However, leave it to QB Joe Flacco (374 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) who started to chuck it deep in the 4th quarter – trailing 17-7, they didn’t even need OT as the Browns scored 13 unanswered points to get the outright win, 20-17.
• Bills Dominate – Well, this is the Bills’ team we expected all season. This time the running game went off on the Cowboys. Apparently half the DAL D was sick, but they got eviscerated as RB James Cook ran for 179 yards and added 42 more receiving plus 2 TDs towards the 31-10 win. BUF still needs to keep winning through a tough schedule, but the AFC East is still in play.
• Ravens Punch Jags in the Mouth – Yep, the Jags can’t win at home for some reason, but they had their chances early. In the 2nd half, BAL just ran all over them. The Jags could only get in the end zone once, while Lamar Jackson (171 yards passing, 97 yards rushing, 1 TD, 1 INT) does his thing to get the 23-7 win. BAL is the 1 Seed in the AFC.
• Seahawks Still Alive – After losing for weeks, SEA looked dead again trailing 17-10 entering the 4th Quarter. However, the Seahawks never waivered. They got a FG with 10:05 remaining to trim the lead to 4. Then, PHI could not run out the clock like they have much of the year. QB Drew Lock led SEA on their longest drive of the season and completed a 29 yard TD to rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to take the lead with just 28 seconds left after trailing the entire game and won 20-17 on an INT by Hurts. The Seahawks playoff odds jumped over 30 percentage points with that throw, and PHI loses 3 straight now.

Predictions: S/U 2-2 ATS 2-2, Totals 2-2 – Wild week.

Injuries:

• Ravens – RB Keaton Mitchell, Knee (Out for Rest of the Season)
• Jags – QB Trevor Lawrence, Concussion (Questionable)
• Bengals – DE DJ Reader, Quad (IR), WR Ja’Marr Chase, Shoulder (Questionable)
• Cowboys – OG Zack Martin, Quad (Questionable)
• Colts – WR Michael Pittman, Concussion (Questionable)

Wegs Index After Week 15

1. 49ers (10-4, 3.00 Index) – Back on top for the 49ers, we get a potential SB match with the top 2 teams in the Index – what a Christmas present.
2. Ravens (10-4, 3.83) – Ravens have been good, but they get a real test on Christmas.
3. Cowboys (10-4, 4.00) – Cowboys do not travel well. 3-4 on the road with crushing losses to SB contenders: SF and BUF. They may have been suffering from the flu, but come on.
4. Dolphins (10-4, 6.50) – Fins bounced back and beat down the Jets, 30-0.
5. Bills (8-6, 7.17) – The Bills do not hold any tiebreakers in the AFC, but they are playing great.
6. Saints (7-7, 9.83) – NO is not the NFC South leader, but per the Index, they are the best team. Can they close?
7. Chiefs (9-5, 9.83) – The Chiefs can still get the 1 Seed, unreal. Their schedule gets really favorable, so it is about BAL losing or not.
8. Texans (8-6, 11.67) – The Texans got a huge win without CJ Stroud. To me, Ryans is the Coach of the Year.
9. Lions (10-4, 12.33) – Goff played well back in the dome.
10. Browns (9-5, 13.17) – The Browns with Flacco can throw the rock better than with Watson. Maybe they can make a run.

Fantasy Semis

If you have come this far, then this is the most important week of the year. Unless your league is winner take all, the Semis put you in the money with a win. Play your best lineup, but be smart. Matchups for DSTs and streaming QBs are key. Start your studs and guys who are closing well – See WR Jayden Reed (GB), RB James Cook (BUF). Ride them to the Finals.

Marquee Matchups in Week 16

• Saints at Rams (-4, 46 Total) – Thursday, 12/21 at 7:15 PM Central on AMAZON – Really important game in the NFC playoff picture. Saints have had a roller coaster season, while the Rams have surprised everyone. I like HC Sean McVay over Dennis Allen for sure, so I understand the line. However, I think it is a little too big for this game. LAR wins the game, NO covers +4, Total Under 46.
• Lions at Vikings (+3.5, 47 Total) – Sunday, 12/24 at Noon on FOX – The Lions can win the division title with this game. So, they are highly motivated. The Vikings have had their chances with games lately, but this is their last stand. I would say that the Flores D is going to give Jared Goff trouble enough, even if the line is moving towards the Lions. Lions win, but Vikes Cover +3.5. Total Over 47.
• Cowboys at Dolphins (-1.5, 51 Total) – Sunday, 12/24 at 3:25 PM on FOX – The Boys and Fins are opposite sides of the same coin. Neither team has beaten anyone great this year, especially on the road. So, that does not help the handicap for DAL. However, I do think that the Cowboys coming off the big loss at BUF will actually help them. I’m going to assume WR Tyreek Hill plays in this one, which will help MIA. Although I’ll take the Boys to finally get a quality road win and cover +1.5. Total Under 51.
• Ravens at 49ers (-5.5, 46.5 Total) – Monday, 12/25 at 7:15 PM on ABC – Here we go. A Super Bowl preview in my view. The 2 top teams in my Index and 2 MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. Now, SF is healthier than BAL (no Mark Andrews at TE or Mitchell at RB), and I think the 49ers are the best team in football. However, I love the coaching match up here – Old School – Jon Harbaugh vs. Newer School Kyle Shanahan. It is too many points though, so I’ll take the points with BAL +5.5, but I find it hard to see a win, so SF wins the game. I like this game to be Over 46.5 because the refs will let them play for us on Christmas.

Happy Holidays!

Wegs