NFL: Week 13 – Contenders Ball

The NFL may have gotten a little overshadowed by the College Football farce Selection Show, but we got some great games and teams that are surging late.

• Lions Bounce Back – DET had been struggling to start in their past 2 games at home, but on this one, they came out gunning with a quick 21-0 lead in the first quarter. The Saints did claw their way back to a 24-21 margin in the 3rd, but the Lions were able to hold NO off to win and cover, 33-28.
• Texans Do It Again – CJ Stroud has been sublime in his rookie year, but mostly he has made the Texans a winner. In this game, he wasn’t great with 16 of 27 for 274 yards, 1 TD, but he found the mismatch hitting WR Nico Collins for 9 catches, 191 yards and that TD. The win streak stopped at 5 for DEN in the 22-17 loss.
• Fins Full Throttle – Can we please make WR Tyreek Hill the MVP? 5 catches, 157 yards and 2 TDs which just crushed the Commanders early, 31-7 at the half. The D is playing well, too, but the Fins looked good overall in their 45-15 win.
• 49ers Dominate Eagles – After trailing 6-0 at the end of the first quarter, SF scored 14 points in each of the final 3 quarters with TDs to RB Christian McCaffery and 3 to Deebo Samuel (2 receiving and 1 rushing). The Eagles finally got clipped in this rematch, 42-19.
• Packers Beat Chiefs – Wait, did someone say QB Jordan Love was bad? Well, he is a different player than the first 6 games, but in his past 4 games, he has been excellent – 286.5 YPG, 10 TDs and 2 INTs. The D has played better, too, and they controlled the Champs in the 27-19 win.
• Jags Lose A Lot – The Jags have been really good since their mid-season turnaround in 2022. However, for some reason, they struggle at home (now 2-4 on the year). Against a Burrow-less CIN, the Jags D had no answer for QB Jake Browning, RB Joe Mixon and WR Jamaar Chase who lit up the JAC D for 491 yards and 34 points en route to a 34-31 OT win. Meanwhile on the first Jags Offensive play, they lost WR Christian Kirk to a groin injury and QB Trevor Lawrence was bent over backwards suffering a high ankle sprain. The Jags went from potential 1 Seed in the AFC to now they will have to fight for their lives to win the AFC South.

Predictions: S/U – 4-0, ATS – 1-3, Totals – 1-3 – DAL didn’t cover, but Lions and Texans did. Totals are my weakness all year.

Injuries:

• Jags – QB Trevor Lawrence, Ankle (Unknown, but likely Out), WR Christian Kirk, Groin (Out)
• Packers – WR Christian Watson, Hamstring (Questionable)
• Texans – WR Tank Dell, Broken Leg (Out for Season)
• Steelers – QB Kenny Pickett, Ankle (Out for 2-4 weeks with surgery)
• Saints – QB Derek Carr, Concussion (Questionable)
• Eagles – QB Jalen Hurts, Concussion/Leg (Questionable)
• Titans – RB Derrick Henry, Head (Questionable)
• Lions – C Frank Ragnow, Knee (Questionable)
• Patriots – RB Ramondre Stevenson, Ankle (DNP)

Wegs Index After Week 13

1. 49ers (9-3, 2.67 Index) – SF took it to the Eagles, and Purdy is getting heralded as the MVP. Well, I’ll die with him winning and maybe winning the Super Bowl. They have the best roster in the league and when healthy probably unbeatable. Still 5 long weeks of health and the playoffs to go, though.
2. Cowboys (9-3, 3.00) – The Boys’ D did not play well, but QB Dak Prescott needs more shine for the MVP. He has been incredible since the SF loss in Week 5.
3. Ravens (9-3, 4.33) – The Ravens are being slept on in the AFC and SB talk. Let’s see how they play off the bye with some tough games remaining (including at SF).
4. Bills (6-6, 7.50) – Well, somehow this team stays up in the metrics. The only path to the playoffs now is letting QB Josh Allen ball out, even if he might get hurt. The D just can’t hold up against top teams.
5. Dolphins (9-3, 9.33) – The D has been rising in the metrics against bad teams. Let’s see how they play against better teams down the stretch.
6. Chiefs (8-4, 9.67) – The Chiefs O is not good. Lack of WRs really costs this team week in and week out. The 1 Seed may have slipped through their fingers.
7. Texans (7-5, 10.17) – The Texans have been great at home, but they need to finish up with 3 road games of their last 5.
8. Lions (9-3, 11.83) – Great start at NO, but the D still seems to be regressing – 23.8 PPG Against.
9. Eagles (10-2, 14.17) – The Eagles need a Bye, but that already happened. Hurts is gimpy and the D can’t tackle. They go to DAL this week.
10. Vikings (6-6, 14.33) – Big game for the Vikings this week, and the main issue for them all year has been a -8 TO Differential this season.

Fantasy Minute

Your final week is now in Week 14, so you should now what you need. Focus on getting the hottest players in your lineup regardless of the projection. Guys like Christian Watson (if healthy) is scoring every week now. Offenses get honed in this time of year. Plus, your handcuffs may need to be in – see Tajae Spears in TEN. Good luck and may the Fantasy Gods smile upon you.

Marquee Matchups in Week 14

Bye: WAS, AZ

• Jags at Browns (+3.5, 30.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/10 at Noon Central on CBS – The Browns hanging on for dear life now. QB Joe Flacco did not play terribly on the road at the Rams, but the D didn’t hold up. The Jags losing Lawrence and Kirk flipped this game completely upside down from -3 Jags to -3.5 Browns. CJ Beathard wasn’t that bad either for the Jags, so I would take the points here. Tough spot on the road for sure against that D, but I’ll ride with the Jags winning outright, too. They have been much better on the road this season, 6-0. Total Over 30.5.
• Seahawks at 49ers (-10.5, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/10 at 3:05 PM Central on FOX – One last chance for the SEA to try to get back in the mix, but their D is not playing well. It is hard to see a path for SEA to win this one, but I do think that 10.5 is too many points. So, SF to win the game, SEA +10.5. Total Over 46.5.
• Bills at Chiefs (-1.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/10 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Bills are in a win or go home game at KC. They have improved offensively, which will be tested versus the salty KC D. However, the Chiefs O is broken. Yep, they scored 31 at the Raiders and the Bills struggle to hold up over 60 minutes. However, I think that the Bills will do enough in this one to win outright and cover +1.5, the line was at +2.5, so BUF money has already come in on this one. Total is Under 48.5.
• Eagles at Cowboys (-3, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/10 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Eagles’ schedule is just brutal. This week they need to go to Jerry’s World where the Boys are basically unbeatable. I didn’t love the hook in this game, but now the spread is down to -3 cluing that Hurts will be playing. The Boys will win again and cover -3. Total is Under 51.5.

We are in the final stretch.

Wegs