NFL: Week 12 – Favorites Dominate

It is rare in the NFL when the Favorites carry the day, but in Week 12 – for once, the Favorites just won and covered the number.

Week 12 Recap:

• 49ers Take Control: The 49ers finished up a Thanksgiving slate with a dominant performance over their NFC West rivals with a 31-13 victory. RB Christian McCaffery ran wild with 139 yards on 24 touches and 2 TDs.
• Kings of the South: The Jags came out swinging in HOU up early. Still the Texans rallied late to have a chance to tie the game, but a 58 yard FG hit the crossbar short to give JAC the 24-21 win and inside track in the AFC South.
• Wide Open in ATL: The Saints were leading the NFC South entering Sunday, but the Falcons used a pick 6 and a big rush attack (228 yards rushing) to get back in first place with NO, 24-15.
• Broncos Are Streaking: Yes, they have played a couple of backup QBs lately, by give DEN credit, but HC Sean Payton has this team on the verge of the playoffs with their 5th straight win. 3 more forced TOs led to more points in the 29-12 win.
• Eagles Tempt Fate Again: In the past few weeks, the Eagles have looked nearly dead or at least in jeopardy of losing the best record in the NFL. This time, BUF led 17-7 at the half and 24-14 going into the 4th Quarter. However, QB Jalen Hurts was great 200 yards, 3 TDs through the air and 65 yards, 2 TDs on the ground to force OT and eventually win the game outright, 37-34. The Birds keep flying.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 1-2-1, Totals 3-1 – tough day on the spreads but only real miss was the HOU side.

Key Injuries:

• Cleveland – DE Myles Garrett, Shoulder (Questionable), QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Concussion (Questionable)
• Miami – DE Jaelen Phillips, Achilles (Out for Season)
• Philadelphia – DT Fletcher Cox, Groin (Questionable)

Wegs Index Through Week 12

1. 49ers (8-3, 2.67 Index) – SF looks like the team to beat again after their 3 game hiccup. Healthy on O, which may be what they need to keep winning.
2. Cowboys (8-3, 3.17) – The Boys dominated yet again at home. Still #1 in Point Differential on the year.
3. Ravens (9-3, 4.50) – The Ravens may not have looked overly impressive on SNF, but they are looking like the healthiest in their division for the home stretch.
4. Bills (6-6, 7.50) – The blown lead against PHI is indicative of how bad their D has played now 10th in Yards Allowed. Josh Allen can only do so much.
5. Chiefs (8-3, 9.17) – After trailing early, the O finally looked decent at the Raiders.
6. Dolphins (8-3, 10.17) – The path for MIA to AFC East is totally open now, but can they somehow climb to the #1 Seed in the AFC?
7. Saints (5-6, 11.67) – Derek Carr is not good, and despite a solid D, this team cannot beat good teams.
8. Texans (6-5, 12.17) – A tough loss on Sunday with the kick that fell just short, but the Texans control their own destiny.
9. Lions (8-3, 12.33) – The Goff TOs finally caught up to the Lions with the loss on Thanksgiving. They still have an easier path than most, but ball security is critical to their success.
10. Eagles (10-1, 13.00) – 2 incredible comebacks leave the record intact, but their luck is about to run out.

Fantasy Playoffs Are Almost Here

We went over handcuffs last week. In either this final week or the next week (if your league has adjusted), then the main goal is twofold:

1. Make the Playoffs – So, if you are a solid squad that has performed well all season, then start your studs and chill. If you have tough matchups, then go for broke. I’m ok starting high variance guys in good match ups. You need to make the dance to be able to win the cash.
2. Be Sure You Are Covered – Handcuffs are part of the puzzle. The other is to be sure you have enough horses on the squad to carry you far. Hopefully, you know your starters. If you have one positions like your RB2 or WR2 that is hit or miss, then be sure you have 2 good choices with favorable matchups to plug in. A 2nd DST may be a good idea based on matchups, so know your team’s schedule.

Marquee Matchups in Week 13

• Seahawks at Cowboys (-9, 47.5 Total) – Thursday, 11/30 at 7:15 PM Central on AMAZON – The Boys have been nearly untouchable at home this year, and the Seahawks seem to have lost their mojo. I think the line is a little heavy here, but good luck taking points against DAL at home. I’ll stick with DAL winning and covering -9 – Total Under 47.5.
• Lions at Saints (+4.0, 46 Total) – Sunday, 12/3 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Both teams are licking their wounds from the weekend. Both teams need to get back on the winning track. I just believe in DET more than NO. Derek Carr is not good, but the Saints are in a must win part of their schedule. Still, I’ll ride with the Lions to win, but Saints to Cover +4. Total Under 46.
• Broncos at Texans (-3.5, 47 Total) – Sunday, 12/3 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Texans finally cooled off at home against a good Jags O. DEN comes in riding a 5 game win streak, powered by the D and TOs. The loser will definitely be on the outside looking in for the AFC Playoff picture. I’ll be the first to say I don’t like the hook in most matchups, and this is one of them. I do think HOU is the better team and should win, but DEN should cover +3.5. Total Over 47.
• 49ers at Eagles (+2.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/3 Central on FOX – Now, we have a game, the 2 powerhouses of the NFC in a rematch of the NFC Title Game from January. SF will have revenge on their mind and the Eagles gauntlet continues. Look, I like the Eagles, I think Hurts (not Purdy) is the MVP, but at some point the comebacks will stop. SF will win this game, and I’m not surprised they are favored, but by 2.5. SF will cover -2.5, even though I expect Eagles’ money to flood the market to bring this down to -1.5. If you like the Birds, then grab this +2.5 while it lasts. Total, Over 47.5. Eagles D is not great, so SF will definitely put up some points here.

Let’s get it.

Wegs