NFL: Week 11 Was Riveting

I’ve learned over the years that the point spread does not matter much, as if you pick the winner then they will cover (as Favorite or Underdog), but Week 11 defied the average.

Week 11 Recap

• Ravens Control Their Destiny – In just one week, the Ravens who blew a lead looked a little defeated and then set to face the Bengals and Joe Burrow. Well, by Tuesday, CLE’s QB Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the rest of the season with a shoulder bone broken, then on Thursday’s game, CIN’s QB Joe Burrow aggravated a wrist injury that now has ruled him out for the season. The Ravens won Thursday, 34-20, and unless PIT grows an Offense, BAL will win the AFC North easily.
• Browns Ride D – The Browns opened as a -4 favorite, then the game fell as far as a Pick against the Steelers with the Watson news. Leave it to the CLE D to hold PIT to 12 first downs, and CLE still got the win, 13-10.
• Giants Sweep WAS – Well, even QB Tommy Devito can get a win in the NFL. Despite being sacked 9 times in the game, Devito was able to throw 3 TD passes, and the Giants D forced 6 WAS TOs to win against the Commanders yet again, 31-19 including a pick 6 to seal it. Incredible.
• Rams Win Late – Trailing 13-0 in the first half, somehow the Rams were able to rally with 10 4th Quarter points to win the game outright, 17-16.
• Broncos Steal One – The Vikings led virtually the entire game. However, DEN has been able to force TOs in their win streak. This time they force 2 fumbles and an INT that led to points each time, and it took them their final drive to get in the end zone to take the lead, 21-20. Another pressure filled stand led to the outright win, and suddenly DEN is 5-5 with life for the playoffs.
• Eagles Get Revenge – It did not look good in the first half, as KC got up 17-7 in Arrowhead. However, give the Eagles credit. They forced a big TO on a forced fumble from TE Travis Kelce, and QB Jalen Hurts gets the job done late with a big strike to DeVonta Smith for the go ahead TD. A big drop late by KC, and the Chiefs go their 3rd straight game without scoring in the 2nd half. Eagles win, 21-17 and go to 9-1.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 2-2 (Used CLE -4 even though they covered the final line), Totals 1-3

Key Injuries/News:

• Bengals – QB Joe Burrow has been shutdown for the year with a wrist ligament tear
• Browns – Deshaun Watson has been shutdown for the year with a broken shoulder bone
• Steelers – OC Matt Canada is finally fired in PIT, Eddie Faulkner gets the call
• Saints – QB Derek Carr is still in concussion protocol, CB Marshon Lattimore, Ankle (Questionable)
• Packers – RB Aaron Jones, Knee (Doubtful)
• Falcons – QB Taylor Heinicke, Hamstring (Questionable) – Ridder to start
• Ravens – TE Mark Andrews, Ankle (Out)
• Chargers – DE Joey Bosa, Foot (Doubtful)
• 49ers – S Talanoa Hufanga, ACL (Out for Season)
• Seahawks – QB Geno Smith, Elbow (DNP)

Wegs Index Through Week 11

1. 49ers (7-3, 2.67 Index) – SF looks good again, but let’s see how they play against better opponents.
2. Cowboys (7-3, 3.33) – The Boys flex again against inferior competition.
3. Ravens (8-3, 5.33) – See above, but BAL can have the best record in the AFC with the remaining schedule.
4. Bills (6-5, 7.67) – Bills looked better, but the Jets cannot score on anyone.
5. Chiefs (7-3, 9.67) – The Offensive struggles continue. 3 straight games not scoring in the 2nd half means they are not adjusting the game plan at the half. That’s on Nagy.
6. Dolphins (7-3, 10.67) – The Fins’ O didn’t look great. They benefited from a lot of red zone TOs.
7. Lions (8-2, 10.83) – Lions turn the ball over and were lucky to win, but best record since the 60s going into Thanksgiving.
8. Eagles (9-1, 11.00) – The Eagles are a tough team. Not pretty, but Hurts, even a little dinged up, came come through when it counts.
9. Saints (5-5, 11.00) – Let’s see how the Saints O looks after the Bye.
10. Texans (6-4, 11.00) – Texans keep winning, OROY and COY?

Fantasy Football – Cuffing Season

Cuffing Season is a dating term, but it also applies to Fantasy Football. The carnage in the NFL is non-stop, and if you have one of the top RBs behind a good line you need to protect your assets. It is not sexy to have Tank Bigsby on your bench, but Travis Etienne has been incredible. However, if he goes down, the Jags will still run the ball and throw it to the RB out of the backfield. Here are the key Cuffs you should have if you have the starter:

SF Christian McCaffery – Handcuff – Jordan Mason

JAC Travis Etienne – HC – Tank Bigsby

WAS Brian Robinson – HC – Chris Rodriguez (Gibson is may get back soon)

BAL Gus Edwards – HC – Keaton Mitchell (can he stay healthy though)

SEA Kenneth Walker – HC – Zach Charbonney

TEN – Derrick Henry – HC – Tyjae Spears

LVR – Josh Jacobs – HC – Zamir White

CLE – Jerome Ford – HC – Kareem Hunt

ATL – Bijan Robinson – HC – Tyler Allgeier

It is a good time to trade for the handcuff if you can’t find them on the waiver wire.

Marquee Matchups in Week 12

• 49ers at Seahawks (+7, 43 Total) – Thursday, 11/23 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The first of 2 match ups in the next 3 weeks in this one. SF looks dominant, and SEA has been limping along. QB Geno Smith is hurt with an elbow, but may still play. SF should be favored, but I think +7 is a little too much for this divisional rivalry. If Geno misses the game, then the spread will get over 7, so if you like SF take them now. Total Over 43 (even though almost all prime time games go Under).
• Saints at Falcons (PK, 42 Total) – Sunday, 11/26 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Both teams coming off the Bye pits the division leaders against each other. Who’s starting for NO? Looks like Winston, and the Lattimore injury is going to hurt. ATL goes back to Ridder, so you know how I feel about him, but I think the Falcons win this one on a Koo FG (like every game). I’ll go Under 42.
• Jags at Texans (+2, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/26 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Can the Jags get revenge against the Texans? Not sure. Stroud tore up the Jags D in Jacksonville and he has been very good at home. I’m not betting against CJ Stroud and this offense. I’d like to see the Jags win this one, but I’ll take the home dog to win outright and cover +2. Regardless, I’ll go Over 48.5.
• Bills at Eagles (-3, 48 Total) – Sunday, 11/26 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Bills need a big win here. The Eagles continue on this gauntlet of a schedule. I think that the Eagles will win this one easily and cover -3. Total Over 48.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Wegs