NFL: Week 10 Was Off The Rails

The NFL has reached its peak of lunacy. Sure, some results were not surprising, but others just defy understanding.

Week 10 Recap

• 49ers Are Back – At least for one week, the Bye Week served SF well, as they went to JAC and destroyed the Jags, 34-3. The D forced 4 JAC TOs and with the full complement of weapons back, Brock Purdy delivered 296 yards passing, 3 TDs and 0 INTs.
• Watson Finally Delivers – The CLE trade with HOU for Deshaun Watson has not worked out as planned. However, on Sunday after trailing, 17-3 at the end of the first quarter, and 31-17 with 11:34 remaining in the game, Watson led a TD drive to cut the lead to 7. Then, a Pick 6 of Lamar Jackson (223 yards passing, 41 yards rushing, 1 TD and 2 INTs) but a missed XP left the Browns trailing 31-30. After a stop, the final drive by Watson led to a GW FG at the gun for the 33-31 win.
• HOU Gets Big Road Win – The Texans after trailing 7-0 after the first quarter, HOU proceeded to score 10 points in each of the final 3 quarters including a late scoring drive to set up yet another GW FG to snap the CIN win streak at 4, 30-27. Stroud passed for 356 yards and RB Devin Singletary ran for 150 yards, which was incredible on a D that was playing decent before Sunday.
• Lions Win Shootout – The Lions and Chargers had a good ole fashioned shoot out on Sunday. One that meant whoever had the last possession was going to win the game, as both teams combined for 954 yards on Offense. Still, QB Jared Goff (333 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a game winning drive for a FG to win, 41-38.
• Murray Rallies the Cards – I questioned the return of QB Kyler Murray in Week 10. After almost a year without seeing the field, but to a team with one win seemingly in tank mode. However, Murray did his thing (249 yards passing, 33 rushing, 1 TD, 1 INT), especially late with a key 3rd and 10 scramble to keep the drive alive leading the eventual GW FG, 25-23.

In total, I think 6 games ended in a GW FG on the week.

Predictions: S/U – 2-2, ATS 3-1, Totals – 0-4 – continue to struggle with Totals, as the Overs won big on the week.

Key Injuries:

• Bills – S Micah Hyde, Neck (Missed Game)
• Bengals – WR Tee Higgins, Hamstring (Questionable), DE Trey Hendrickson, Knee (Questionable), DE Sam Hubbard, Ankle (Questionable)
• Browns – QB Deshaun Watson, Ankle (Questionable)
• Falcons – QB Taylor Heinicke, Hamstring (Questionable – left game Sunday)
• Eagles – QB Jalen Hurts, Knee (Questionable), TE Dallas Goeddert, Forearm (Doubtful)
• Steelers – LB Kwon Alexander, Achilles (Out for Season)

Wegs Index Through Week 10

1. 49ers (6-3, 2.83 Index) – Back on top of the NFC West and Wegs Index. Impressive performance surely helped the metrics.
2. Cowboys (6-3, 3.67) – DAL destroyed the undermanned Giants as expected.
3. Ravens (7-3, 5.17) – The BAL D let them down late on Sunday, and as a team, they typically play very well from in front.
4. Chiefs (7-2, 9.33) – The Chiefs hopefully focused on their Offense in the Bye Week.
5. Lions (7-2, 9.67) – The Lions got a tough win, but that D looked suspect again.
6. Bills (5-5, 10.00) – The Josh Allen and offensive turnovers have killed this team yet again. -3 on the season and directly leading to the loss on MNF. They look like they will miss the playoffs now with a daunting schedule ahead.
7. Eagles (8-1, 10.50) – The Eagles start a gauntlet schedule after the Bye.
8. Browns (6-3, 11.17) – The Browns O flashed when it needed, too, which sets them up for a playoff run.
9. Saints (5-5, 11.33) – Even with a loss at MIN, the Saints lead the NFC South.
10. Texans (5-4, 11.50) – The Texans can still steal the AFC South from the Jags with their favorable schedule. Demeco Ryans needs to be the lead candidate for COY.

Fantasy Football – Trade Targets

• Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys – Dak is coming off an great game, so maybe wait a week to pull this one off as he faces a surprisingly decent CAR D. After that, Dak faces only 1 Top 10 D remaining including the 30th and 32nd ranked Ds against the pass down the stretch. I like DAL, in general, but Dak especially.
• Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys – He has been a major disappointment this year, and he is coming off an explosive performance by the O that left him not scoring. The Pollard owner is angry, trust me. I would grab him for peanuts, and the remaining schedule should yield results. Plus, his back up (and likely TD Vulture) – Rico Dowdle is widely available. So, you can secure the backfield for a team that is going to be favored in more often that not.
• Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers – I meant to include him last week before he went off yet again, but he is going to be the back down the stretch for the Steelers. You may need to overpay now for him, but I think he is worth it. He is finally getting more than 10 carries a game – it is clear Najee Harris is not explosive like Warren.
• Davante Adams, WR, Raiders – He has been buy low all year, and he still didn’t produce big on Sunday. I like his remaining schedule and AOC can get him the ball – 13 targets on Sunday. So, I would look for Adams to close very strong come the fantasy playoffs.
• DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks – Where has this guy been? Well, he got some late yards to get to decent, but look at this guy’s playoff schedule – 32rd, 25th, 27th – that sounds like some big games and I know the DK owner is ready to get rid of him.

Marquee Matchups in Week 11

Byes: Colts, Falcons, Patriots, Saints

• Bengals at Ravens (-3.5, 46 Total) – Thursday, 11/16 at 7:15 PM on AMAZON – The AFC North is loaded this year, and this is one of 2 showdowns this week. On TNF, the Bengals will go to BAL, as both teams need to rebound against tough losses at home. CIN may have got caught looking ahead at this one resting WR Tee Higgins. Hendrickson not playing is a real possibilities, so everything is pointing to BAL in this one. BAL has been the class of the league, but CLE may have found a weakness in the Rush D. Not sure CIN can run the ball like CLE, but I will still take the points with Joe Burrow in a divisional spot. CIN wins this one and covers +3.5. Total Under 46.
• Steelers at Browns (-4, 36.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/19 at 12 Noon on CBS – AFC North showdown #2, as the Browns won in dramatic fashion at BAL. The Steelers may have the same record, but I just can’t back that Offense. Browns will win this game, but can they cover -4? I will reluctantly lay the -4, even though laying more than 3 points in this division traditionally is almost impossible. Total Over 36.5.
• Titans at Jags (-6.5, 40 Total) – Sunday, 11/19 at 12 Noon on CBS – Once the marquee match up in the division, now the Titans are one more loss away from oblivion. I think the Jags bounce back in this one by winning and covering -6.5. Total Over 40.
• Eagles at Chiefs (-3, 46 Total) – Monday, 11/20 at 7:15 PM on ABC/ESPN – Finally a great MNF matchup, and both teams off the Bye, which makes for some interesting handicapping. Andy Reid is usually incredible off the bye with extra time to prepare, but the Eagles pose a huge problem to the now stout KC D – PHI run game is unparalleled plus with the time off QB Jalen Hurts should be healthy with an ax to grind from last season’s Super Bowl. So, I’ll take the Eagles to win this one outright and cover the +3. Most Prime Time games have gone Under, but I think the refs will let them play for an Over 46.

Let’s do this.

Wegs