In the NFL, trends do emerge over the course of weeks. At exactly the halfway point of the regular season, we cannot predict exactly who will be there in the end, but we can see who’s looking legit.

Week 9 Recap

Dobbs Saves the Day
  • Ravens Flying High: The Ravens may not be the SB favorite, but perhaps they should be. After dismantling yet another NFC division leader in SEA, 37-3, BAL is tied for the best record in the AFC at 7-2. The only issue is the rest of the division is right on their heels at 5-3 – if the playoff started today, all AFC North teams would be in the postseason.
  • Dobbs Is A Gamer: QB Josh Dobbs was traded right before the season from CLE to AZ, then he started the first 8 games for them only winning 1 game but for a team that was not supposed to be competitive, they were in most. At the trade deadline last Tuesday, Dobbs went to MIN. So, he was only supposed to wear the headset and help rookie QB Jaren Hall in his first career start after the Cousins injury. Well, on the first series, Hall was knocked out with a concussion. Dobbs stepped in without even knowing all his teammates. He proceeded to complete 20 of 30 passes for 158 yards, 2 TDs plus added 66 yards rushing and a TD including the game winning TD pass to win outright, 31-28 on the road in ATL. Dobbs may not be an MVP caliber player, but he certainly has had an award winning season.
  • Rookie of the Year: QBs do get all the shine in the awards, but QB CJ Stroud from HOU has played the part. On Sunday, he completely lit up the Bucs’ D with a rookie record 470 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Stroud has been exceptional not only at producing but not turning the ball over. He is a lock for OROY (-500).
  • Raiders Smoking: The Raiders turned the page on HC Josh McDaniels, and they wasted no time to open up the offense. Prior to Sunday, LV had not scored more than 20 points. Well, a big 30-6 win led by RB Josh Jacobs, 98 yards, 2 TDs, had the Raiders smoking stogies after the game in the locker room.
  • Eagles Win Round One: The Eagles-Cowboys rival is storied. Sunday was another gem, as the Boys rolled into PHI with a purpose leading at the half, 17-14. After getting knocked on his knee hard, QB Jalen Hurts (207 yards passing, 2 TD, 36 yards rushing, 1 TD) led 2 big TD drives to take a commanding lead by the end of the 3rd, 28-17. In the fourth, DAL had 3 different drives deep into Eagles’ territory. On the first, DAL went for it on 4th and Goal only to have a TD reversed as the TE didn’t get in before his knee came down. On the 2nd, DAL got the score, but went for 2 down 28-23 only to have QB Dak Prescott (374 yards passing, 3 TDs) step out before getting in the end zone. On the final trip under a minute left, DAL got all the way to the 6 yard line with 27 seconds left, but after a penalty, sack and incompletion, the last pass fell 2 yards short of the goal line to CeeDee Lamb (11 catches, 191 yard). PHI won, 28-23 and maintain the best record in the NFL, 8-1.
  • Bengals On The Rise: The Bengals did it again winning their 4 straight game. QB Joe Burrow looks healthy with 348 yards passing and 2 TDs mostly to WR Tee Higgins (8 catches for 110 yards). The Bills looked very one dimensional as QB Josh Allen was the offense – 258 yards passing, 44 yards rushing and 2 total TDs, but a critical INT sealed the game for CIN in their 24-18 win.

Predictions: S/U 2-2, ATS 2-2, Totals 2-2 – that DAL game would have helped.

Key Injuries:

  • Giants – QB Daniel Jones, ACL (Out for Season)
  • Vikings – QB Jaren Hall, Concussion (Questionable), RB Cam Akers, Achilles (Out)
  • Falcons – WR Drake London, Groin (Questionable, Missed Game Sunday)
  • Bengals – WR Ja’Marr Chase, Back (Questionable)
  • Browns – OT Jedrick Wills, MCL (Out), LB Jordan Kunaszyk, MCL (Out)
  • Packers – WR Christian Watson, Back (Questionable)
  • Texans – RB Dameon Pierce, Ankle (Questionable, Missed Game)
  • Eagles – TE Dallas Goedert, Forearm (Doubtful for W11)
  • Titans – OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, Shoulder (Out)

Wegs Index Through Week 9

Ravens Are The Top Squad
  1. Ravens (7-2, 4.50 Index) – Ravens top the Index now with all metrics 6 or better except for TO Margin (+1, 12th) – if Lamar stays healthy they are a contender.
  2. Cowboys (5-3, 5.17) – The Boys need to learn to win big games as their talent is there. HC McCarthy is just terrible at late game management.
  3. 49ers (5-3, 5.50) – The Bye came at the right time after dropping 3 straight. If OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel can return, then they can come back to form.
  4. Bills (5-4, 8.00) – The Bills continue to decline in the Index as their play gets worse. The D just isn’t good enough (17th Yards Against), and the lack of running game kills this team.
  5. Lions (6-2, 8.67) – The Lions are just good, so as the season progresses can they beat the big boys?
  6. Chiefs (7-2, 8.83) – The Chiefs’ O is not what we know them to be, but the D is 2nd in Points Against which wins games.
  7. Saints (5-4, 9.67) – The Saints have feasted on bad teams in back to back weeks, now can they take the NFC South.
  8. Eagles (8-1, 10.50) – The Eagles continue to win despite arguably being outplayed versus DAL. Inside the numbers, it is the D that is not as good as 2022 – 20th in Points Against (21.7) and 12th in Yards Against.
  9. Browns (5-3, 11.17) – All this team need is 18 points a game to win, as that D is just good – 17.4 PPG (3rd) and 234.8 YPG (1st). Incredible.
  10. Dolphins (6-3, 11.33) – The Fins stay in the Top 10 despite the loss in Germany, but given them credit for holding the Chiefs scoreless in the 2nd half.

Fantasy Trade Principals

As the weeks roll by, it is time to look at improving your roster outside of the waiver wires via other rosters. Here are a few ideas on trades prior to your trade deadlines.

  1. Make a fair trade – almost everyone is thinking how they can “win” the trade. The truth is if you are in a league for more than one year, all it takes is one “fleeced” trade to neve trade again. So, look at rosters that have your need and try to match it to your strength or surplus. A win-win is always the goal.
  2. Stars over Depth – I write this every year. The fantasy season is long, so depth is important to get through the Bye weeks and survive injuries, but to win the title you need the best roster. That means stars. The more stars will win the big games in December and January.
  3. Don’t Be Afraid of the 2 for 1 – Much like point #2, if you find a good way to turn 2 good players into 1 stud, then do it. The fantasy playoffs are about the guys who dominate. Teams will find unsung guys here and there, but when the game in on the line, the studs get the ball and your team should reflect that.
  4. Look at Schedules – Not only do you want top tier players, but you want to look at the stretch run schedule. You cannot predict the NFL, but we do know the bad defenses or the teams in tank mode by now. If you see 2 of those match ups in Weeks 15-17 (assuming Week 18 is not part of your league), then get those guys on your squad.

Over the next 2 weeks, I’ll put together some targets on your radar. In the meantime, get to know everyone in your league’s roster, so you can find those win-win situations.

Marquee Games in Week 10

Bye: Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Rams

Deebo Needs to Be Back for SF
  • Browns at Ravens (-6, 37.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/12 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – A great battle in the AFC North here. The Ravens O seems to be clicking after a few weeks, but this CLE D is no joke. The front 7 will be hungry for the Browns to get payback from the beatdown in Week 4 (28-3). Now, QB Deshaun Watson needs to play and play well with no Nick Chubb, so I like CLE to Cover +6, BAL will win it, but not cover and Under 37.5.
  • Texans at Bengals (-7, 48 Total) – Sunday, 11/12 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Probably CJ Stroud’s first real test against a surging team like the Bengals. After that huge game versus TB, a natural letdown will occur. If HOU can get this win, then they will have a path to the playoffs is right there for them. I do not see it in this one, although I do love the Texans this year. I like CIN to win and Cover -7, Under 48.
  • Saints at Vikings (+2.5, 41 Total) – Sunday, 11/12 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – A surprisingly important game in the NFC playoff landscape here, and Dobbs makes that more legit. The Saints D has not been as good as the early weeks, which is not due to injury. So, I do like MIN in this game. Their D has been really good, so I’ll take the home dog Vikings to win and Cover +2.5 in this one. Total goes Over 41 – the Saints Under run is over.
  • 49ers at Jags (+3, 46 Total) – Sunday, 11/12 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – It is a little weird this game was not flexed to 4 PM or even SNF, but the 49ers come off the bye healthy to take on the streaking Jags (also off the bye). The Jags’ O has been playing very well in this stretch, and it will be important to know if WR Zay Jones returns to this lineup. SF has banked on DE Chase Young to add to the pass rush to cover the poor CB play, so the Jags can exploit them. I just think SF is physically tougher than the Jags, so I will reluctantly lay the -3 for SF to get the win and cover. Total is Over 46.

Enjoy Week 10.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.