NFL: Week 8 Was Entertaining

We are not halfway through the season, but after 8 weeks, the league is still totally wide open.

NFL Week 8 Recap

• Levis Looked Great: At times this season, it seemed like rookie QB Will Levis would not see the field this week. Levis was getting steam to be the 1st Overall Pick in the Draft when he dropped like a stone to TEN in the 2nd Round. Well, he looked all the makings of a 1st Rounder as he chucked the ball deep over and over en route to a big win over ATL, 28-23 – Levis was 19 for 29 with 4 TDs (3 to De’Andre Hopkins) and 0 INTs.
• Comeback Jets: Down 10-7 in what only can be characterized as a ugly football game. NYG QB Tyrod Taylor was knocked out putting in unknown Tommy DeVito and the Jets after allowing a DeVito rushing TD held him to -1 yard passing. Still, the Jets were +8000 to win the game after Zach Wilson took a sack on 4th and 10 at their own 25 yard line. However, the Giants missed a FG with 24 seconds left giving the Jets one more chance. NYJ’s QB Wilson hit WR Garrett Wilson for 29 yards, then WR Alan Lazard for another 29 yards setting up the tying FG to force OT. In OT, the Jets forced a punt and moved the ball into FG range after a Pass Interference as K Greg Zuerlein hit the GW FG in OT, 13-10 – never a doubt. Haha.
• Carolina Gets 1st Win: Not a high flying game here, as the Texans led at the half, 7-6. Still, the Panthers were game in this one, as they too a lead at 9-7 and another FG at 12-7, but when Stroud scored at the end of the 3rd, 13-12, the Panthers may not get their first win. Still, with the ball at their own 9 yard line with 6:20 left in the game, rookie QB Bryce Young led an 86 yard drive including converting on a 4th and 2 at the HOU 47. Then, they milked the clock setting up a FG try that was missed, but back to back penalties on HOU led to the eventual GW FG by K Eddie Pineiro to give CAR the 15-13 win.
• Broncos Smother Chiefs: Just when you thought the KC O was back, the terrible DEN D holds Mahomes and the gang to 275 total yards and forced 3 TOs en route to a resounding 24-9 win. DEN’s QB Russell Wilson wasn’t good – 12 for 19 for 114 yards, but 3 TDs converting in the Red Zone. DEN did rush for 153 yards in this one to complement the D.
• Bengals Do What They Do: Early in the season, CIN did not look like a SB Contender, but like each of the past 2 seasons, the Bengals righted the ship. This time on the road at SF who looked like the league’s best team 3 weeks ago, QB Joe Burrow hit on his first 18 passes en route to 28 of 32 for 283 yards and 3 TDs (0 INTs), plus he ran for 43 yards on 6 scrambles – so the calf is fine. More importantly, the D has been great forcing 3 TOs in this one and limiting yet another opponent to under 20 points. CIN is now 4-3 with this 31-17 win. Watch out!
• Seahawks Are in 1st Place: It wasn’t pretty against arguably the league’s best D in CLE, but after good first half, CLE dominated in the 2nd. Still, the game was tight, and SEA needed one drive late to go 57 yards culminating a passing TD to rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to get the go ahead score, 24-20. SEA is now leading the NFC West at 5-2.

Predictions: S/U 2-2 (Pick the Winner not the Spread!), ATS 3-1, Totals 2-2

Season Long Predictions: Through 8 Weeks, my pre-season predictions are holding up pretty well. Overall, 63.11% on all games to this point and a scorching 74.14% in Weeks 5-8. 5 Teams (15.63%) right on their record – Chiefs, Jags, Cowboys, Falcons and Fins with almost all teams within 1 game of the prediction. The outliers are: Bears, Steelers, Broncos and Patriots under expectations, while Rams and Texans have exceeded expectation (greater than 1 game from predictions).

Key Injuries:

• Vikings – QB Kirk Cousins, Achilles (Out for Season)
• Steelers – QB Kenny Pickett, Ribs (Questionable – trending towards playing), FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, Hamstring (Out)
• Giants – QB Tyrod Taylor, Ribs (Questionable – left game), TE Darren Waller, Hamstring (Questionable – left game)
• Rams – QB Matthew Stafford, Thumb (Questionable), WR Puka Nacua, Knee (Questionable)
• Falcons – QB Desmond Ridder, Concussion (Not on Report, but Taylor Heinicke likely to start)
• Texans – C Jarrett Patterson, Ankle (Doubtful)
• Patriots – WR Kendrick Bourne, ACL (Out for Season)
• Jets – OT Connor McGovern, Knee (IR until W13)

Trade Deadline 10/31 Moves (Updated):

• DE Leonard Williams goes to SEA from NYG – needs deal restructure long term, but should help a playoff team – Giants get a 2nd and 5th round pick
• DE Montez Sweat goes to CHI from WAS – 2nd Round pick back to WAS – gotta love this as a Bears’ fan, but surprised a contender didn’t make the move, although the contract negotiation begins right away with Sweat’s deal up
• DE Chase Young goes to SF from WAS – A full sell off in WAS is on – maybe Steve Wilks can get more out of the former #2 Pick – 3rd Round Pick back to WAS
• QB Josh Dobbs goes to MIN from AZ – which gives the Vikes a shot to compete and get in the playoffs
• OG Ezra Cleveland goes to JAC from MIN – late round pick – not starting for MIN, but JAC can use the help to protect Lawrence
• WR Donovan Peoples-Jones goes to DET from CLE – 6th round pick
• CB Rasul Douglas goes to BUF from GB – 3rd round pick back
• DT Kentavius Street to ATL from PHI (and 7th round pick) – 6th round pick

Coaching Bomb – HC Josh McDaniels is out in Las Vegas!! Along with GM David Ziegler. Owner Mark Davis obviously wanted more at the deadline.

Wegs Index After 8 Weeks

1. Cowboys (5-2, 4.83 Index) – The Boys are good at winning at margin which really boosts their Index. I don’t think DAL is the best team, but after Week 8 they top the Index.
2. 49ers (5-3, 6.17) – The fall from grace has been fast for SF. The injuries to OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel are glaring against good teams. The D has also been subpar, so I expect this trend to continue until healthy. Chase can help, but is the Pass Rush the issue?
3. Ravens (6-2, 6.17) – Actually tied with SF. Not a surprise with the Ravens, they always start fast in the regular season, but can they sustain this for the entire season. Not sure. Tough test this week, too.
4. Bills (5-3, 6.33) – Like the 49ers, they are riding the early season success, this D is not right and until they run the ball consistently, they will struggle against good Ds – see CIN this week.
5. Chiefs (6-2, 8.83) – Ironically, it is the D that is carrying this team. -4 TO differential is killing this team, and currently 12th in Points Per Game on O.
6. Lions (6-2, 9.50) – The Lions are a good team. The O is diversified (2nd in Yards/G), and the D is solid (7th in Yards Against). They bounced back after the BAL beatdown. The move up the Index shows it.
7. Eagles (7-1, 10.67) – Best record in the NFL, but why can they not stop the Commanders? Those 2 games have hurt the D at 18th in Points Against, plus -3 TO Differential.
8. Saints (4-4, 10.83) – The Saints feast against bad defenses like IND, but against qualify opponents they struggle.
9. Jags (6-2, 11.83) – The Jags got through the long stretch in London and beyond with 5 straight wins – well done!
10. Dolphins (6-2, 12.00) – The Fins finally crack the Top 10 mostly on O – 1st in Yards and Points per Game, but 25th in Points Against and -4 TO Differential.

Fantasy Football Immediate Adds

• Will Levis, QB, Titans – Sorry I was a week off here, but I’m not sure anyone expected a 4 TD debut for Levis. Still, he is highly available, and he won’t put up numbers like this but worth an add.
• Taylor Heinicke, QB, Falcons – As I mentioned last week, Ridder was a good pick up based on his schedule, well, if Heinicke continues to play, replace Ridder with Heinicke. I’ve seen conflicting reports – one that Ridder was benched and another that he had a concussion. Ridder is not on the injury report, but his turnover issues have hurt the team. Heinicke has started and has a better arm than Ridder.
• Zach Charbonnet, RB, Titans – I, for one, drafted this guy in a lot of leagues and dropped him. I finally saw something out of him which was likely situational against a tough CLE D. However, 5 carries for 53 yards plus 2 catches for 11 was what we were expecting out of this guy. Speculative add.
• Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills – A week late on this one, but in PPR leagues, Shakir will benefit greatly as BUF moves from a 2 TE scheme back to a 3 WR heavy scheme. On TNF, Shakir turned 6 targets into 6 catches for 92 yards. Shakir plays that Cole Beasley role in this offense which from week to week is good as a WR2/3 or even Flex play during the bye weeks.
• Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals – Fluky? Kinda, but McBride is coming off a huge game – 14 targets, 10 catches, 95 yars and a TD – McBride has had 5 or more targets in 3 straight. In a TE barren landscape, you could do worse although CLE is next and no Dobbs with the trade.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 9

Bye: 49ers, Broncos, Jaguars, Lions

• Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-2.5, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/5 at 8:30 AM on NFL Network in Frankfurt, Germany – Great matchup for the Germans to experience the NFL. The Chiefs O has been subpar, but MIA’s D isn’t great. So, the line seems about right here. The Chiefs D has been solid and only really giving up points after TOs which have been more frequent. I believe KC will bounce back after the loss, but the Fins are not a great matchup for the Champs. Also something to consider, Fins are leaving on Tuesday for Germany, while KC is going on Thursday. The early arriving teams have come out way better than the later arriving teams to date. MIA win and Covers +2.5 and Under 50.5.
• Seahawks at Ravens (-5.5, 43 Total) – Sunday, 11/5 at 12 Noon on CBS – QB Lamar Jackson continues his dominance over the NFC with the win at AZ. SEA has played very well of late, but got a little lucky to beat CLE. I think the Ravens win this one and Cover -5.5, Total Over 43.
• Cowboys at Eagles (-3, 46 Total) – Sunday, 11/5 at 3:25 PM on FOX – Part 1 of the annual duels between the 2 best teams in the NFC East. The Boys are great at home beating up lesser opponents like the Rams this week, but this game comes down to if the Boys can stop the PHI run game. PHI has played one great game all year – against MIA last week – I know they will play tough in this game, however I’ll stick with the underdog here – DAL win and Cover +3, Total Under 46.
• Bills at Bengals (-2.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/5 at 7:20 PM on NBC – A rematch of the fateful game last year when S Damar Hamlin had his cardiac event. So, the perhaps the Bills will play inspired with Hamlin on the sidelines once more, but the Bengals are on a roll. Yes, they can have a letdown after the big win at SF, however the Bills D is just not there right now. The injuries have eroded this team, plus CIN finally had RB Joe Mixon carry the rock. I think the Bengals win easily in this one and Cover -2.5, Total Under 48.5 as the CIN D is legit.

Enjoy Week 9!

Wegs