NFL: Dogs Were Barking in Week 7

The NFL is a week to week league, and Week 7 showed it better than most with some of the bottom feeders getting it done.

NFL Week 7 Recap

• Ravens Flex Muscles: BAL has been a contender for a long time, but only when QB Lamar Jackson is healthy. Wel, he’s healthy and vaulting back into the MVP conversation (+1400-+2000) with 3 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD. The Ravens scored TDs on each of their first 4 drives and the games was over, 38-6 final.
• Bears Get Win with Bagent: Division II QB Tyson Bagent from Shepherd University in WV got his first career start against the Raiders. He went 21 for 29 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs. The Bears ran early and often on the Raiders and won easily 30-12.
• Patriots Shock Bills: Coach Bill Belichick was actually on the hot seat despite having the most wins of any active coach. Give it to him and the Pats for coming out gunning it all over the yard against the depleted Bills’ D scoring early and often. Still after giving up a 12 point lead in the 4th Quarter, QB Mac Jones took NE down the field for the game winning TD to get the outright win, 29-25 and Bill’s 300th career win.
• Tomlin Tough Off the Bye: There are a few things you do not want to go against – the Giants against the Commanders (they upset WAS) and HC Mike Tomlin off a bye. Tomlin is now 7-0 straight up and against the spread off of a bye in the last 7 seasons. This time the Steelers went into LA and took over the crowd and the Chargers’ D in the 4th Quarter with 21 points and a big 24-17 win on the road.
• Chiefs Own AFC West: Do you want to know how to get home field advantage in the playoffs? Win every game in your division. With Patrick Mahomes in KC, the Chiefs gone 28-4 in the division. The Chargers have only beaten them once in the past few seasons, and Sunday was no different. After a high scoring first half, the KC D shut out QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers in the 2nd half, 31-17.
• Run Eagles Run: The Eagles have gotten the entire league on notice with their “Brotherly Shove” play on 4th and 1, which they converted 4 times (4 of 4) to extend drives and score TDs. The Fins stayed in the game with 2 bit Jalen Hurts TOs, but the “Shove” and 2 passing TDs led to the 31-17 win. Philly’s D also held MIA to 244 total yards almost half of their season average.
• Vikings Beat the Trend: QB Kirk Cousins has been poor in prime time, plus if you watched the 49ers 2 weeks ago, this game seemed like a slam dunk. Well, the Vikings came out and took it to the 49ers gaining 452 yards and converting 8 of 13 on 3rd down en route to a 22-17 win. That is 2 straight road losses for SF.

Predictions: Good week overall – S/U 3-1, ATS 2-2, Totals 2-1-1 (KC game finished 48.5, but I wrote 48 which was a push)

Key Injuries:

• Browns – QB Deshaun Watson, Concussion – left the game, passed protocol, but did not return – gonna say it – this dude doesn’t want to play anymore, RB Jerome Ford, Ankle (Doubtful)
• Bills – TE Dawson Knox, Wrist (Doubtful – will miss time)
• Chiefs – LB Nick Bolton, Wrist (Out – out for a while)
• Eagles – Jalen Hurts, Knee (Questionable, but likely to play)
• Steelers – TE Pat Freiermuth, Hamstring (Put on IR last week – sorry for the bad advice)
• Titans – QB Ryan Tannehill, Ankle (Questionable)
• 49ers – WR Deebo Samuel, Shoulder (Out), OT Trent Williams, Ankle (Questionable) – that offense is not the same without them
• Seahawks – LB Uchenna Nwosu, Pectoral (Out)

Wegs Index After 7 Weeks

1. 49ers (6-1, 3.83) – SF has struggled in back to back weeks. Purdy under pressure is a different player.
2. Chiefs (6-1, 6.00) – The Chiefs are finally playing complementary football. The D is as good as this offense which looked better with WR Mecole Hardman back in the building.
3. Cowboys (4-2, 6.17) – The Boys need to make some waves off of the bye, as their schedule gets a little easier.
4. Bills (4-3, 6.50) – The injuries on this team are stacking which means their metrics will continue to decline. The NE loss is just the tip of the iceberg.
5. Ravens (5-2, 6.83) – Finally, the Todd Monken Offense looked good, and with this D, they are formidable with Lamar healthy.
6. Eagles (6-1, 8.67) – The Birds did what they do best against MIA, but their schedule gets really hard after this trip to WAS.
7. Lions (5-2, 11.00) – DET may have been feeling itself a little too much with a day off of hitting last week – then BAL punched them in the mouth. Let’s see how they bounce back against a lesser opponent.
8. Texans (3-3, 11.83) – The Texans have surprised the league so far, but can let’s see how they do as the favorite.
9. Seahawks (4-2, 12.00) – The Seahawks did everything they could to give the game to AZ, but they got the win. Defensive metrics solid at 12th in each category.
10. Saints (3-4, 12.17) – The Saints’ struggles in the Red Zone need to get better quick.

Fantasy Football Immediate Adds

• Desmond Ridder, QB, Falcons – I know he hasn’t been great, but his next 3 match ups are pretty juicy – TEN (12th), MIN (25th) and AZ (28th) – those could be 3 good games in a row. With injuries to guys like Tannehill and Watson – you could do worse.
• Tyler Allgier, RB, Falcons – He is 75% Owned and should be 100%. This guy runs hard, and obviously if Robinson misses time like on Sunday, he is goes nuts. He went for over 100 total yards. I expect him to play well the rest of the season.
• Josh Palmer, WR, Chargers – Palmer has been really good with Mike Williams out of the lineup. Palmer has 4 straight games of 7 targets or more and over 60 yards receiving. He is only 75% Owned.
• Jayden Reed, WR, Packers – Christian Watson may miss again with a knee injury, and Reed has produced with him out. MIN is 29th against WRs, and he is only 29% owned.
• Jaxson Smith-Njigba, WR Seahawks – JSN had a slow start, and I, for one, cut him. He finally is back healthy and took targets with DK out. He is a good route runner and ready to stack good games.

Marquee Matchups in Week 8

• Rams at Cowboys (-6.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/29 at 12 Noon on FOX – The Rams struggled against the Steelers in the 2nd half, so I would expect the Cowboys to turn up the heat on QB Matthew Stafford, as well. The Rams can run the football, but with RB injuries, not sure they can sustain things. I like the Boys to win and Cover -6.5. Total Under 45.5.
• Falcons at Titans (+2.5, 36.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/29 at 12 Noon on CBS – The Falcons lead the NFC South at this point. QB Desmond Ridder has figured out the passing game, but he needs to learn to not give the ball up in the red zone. HC Mike Vrabel for TEN is such a good coach, plus he knows HC Arthur Smith’s tendencies. Now, QB Ryan Tannehill might miss the game putting Malik Willis in – that gives me some pause. I’ll stick with Vrabel and the Titans to win and Cover +2.5. Under 36.5.
• Jags at Steelers (+2.5, 42 Total) – Sunday, 10/29 at 12 Noon on CBS – Man, the Jags do not get a break, as now they travel to PIT to play the salty Steelers. I think my readers know that Tomlin as an Underdog at home is really tough. I love my Jags, but I’ll stick with the Steelers in this one to win and Cover +2.5. Total Under 42.
• Bengals at 49ers (-5.5, 45 Total) – Sunday, 10/29 at 3:25 PM on CBS – Now, finally a real marquee game, the Bengals and 49ers could make the Super Bowl this year. The 49ers look mortal after 2 subpar weeks on the road. Now, they come home for some home cooking against a rested Bengals squad. Really tough game to handicap, but I think QB Joe Burrow will be as healthy as he has been this season. The Bengals D has played week and should get pressure on Purdy. I’m not sure they can get this win, but +5.5 is too many points for Burrow. It should be the best game on the day to watch. SF wins the game, but CIN covers +5.5. Total Over 45.

Let’s get at it again. Happy Halloween!

Wegs