The NFL is a week to week league, which means that it is rare a team can be trusted to perform at the same level each week against a new opponent. Plus, injuries and weather conditions change the dynamic ultimately impacting the results. Week 6 showed us that.

Week 6 Recap

Browns Shock the 49ers
  • Browns Take Out SF: I picked the wrong week to get on the 49ers side, as the rain and wind worked against them. Even with CLE’s PJ Walker starting at QB in place of Deshaun Watson, the Defense played at an elite level. Plus, the 49ers lost WR Deebo Samuels and RB Christian McCaffery during the game. Still, SF had a chance to win the game, but a 41 yard FG pushed right giving the Browns a huge win, 19-17.
  • Jags Still Own IND in FL: The Jags have had the Colts number as mentioned last week in Jacksonville. Sunday was no different, as the Jags built a big 21-3 lead early. They never really looked back even if the Colts got to within 2 scores winning easily, 37-20. One down note was QB Trevor Lawrence was hurt on the last Jags’ drive with a knee injury.
  • Bengals Win Again: It goes to show you that if you pick the correct side in the NFL, then you almost always get the cover. In this one, the Bengals led most of the game, but it was not the Joe Burrow led Offense. The D came up big with trip after trip into the Red Zone only to allow 1 TD out of 5 trips and 3 of those trips were completely empty. CIN won, 17-13, and they are right back in the mix at 3-3.
  • J-E-T-S: The Eagles have had a unique formula in 2023. They build a lead in the first half or three quarters and just run the clock in the 4th. The problem on Sunday was that the Eagles could not run the ball against the Jets (80 yards rushing on 22 carries). QB Jalen Hurts had to throw the ball 45 times leading to 3 INTs, including a late one that put the Jets on the 5 yard line late scoring easily on the next play. The Jets held PHI scoreless in the 2nd half and won the game outright, 20-14 making them 3-3 even without Rodgers. Interesting….
  • Bills Barely Survive: With QB Daniel Jones out, QB Tyrod Taylor (a former Bill) took the helm on the road at BUF for SNF. Well, the Giants played their best game of the year leading most of the game. However, 2 critical plays at the 1 yard line doomed them for the victory – 1) At the end of the half with 14 seconds to go and no timeouts, Taylor checked out of the pass play running RB Saquon Barkley into the line to end the half with no more points – Giants led 6-0 and 2) Trailing 14-9, the Giants got all the way to the BUF 1 again with no time left after a Defensive Pass Interference on BUF. Taylor threw the ball to TE Darren Waller who was clearly grabbed on the play by his jersey. The official did not throw the flag, and BUF got the win, 14-9 (no cover, though).
  • Boys Back on Track: It was a hard fought game on MNF, but leave it to the DAL D who held QB Justin Herbert to 227 yards and made a huge INT to seal the game late. Dak Prescott used his legs more in this one for 40 yards rushing and a TD to go along with 272 yards and a TD through the air. Cowboys won 20-17.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 1-3 (if you like the side just pick it), Totals 3-1 (Huge Under week in the league – 12-2-1).

Key Injuries:

  • Jags – QB Trevor Lawrence, Knee (Questionable on short week with Thursday game)
  • Raiders – QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Back (Questionable)
  • Browns – QB Deshaun Watson, Shoulder (Still unknown what is going on here – maybe more than the shoulder)
  • Bears – QB Justin Fields, Hand/Finger (Questionable – left game)
  • Titans – QB Ryan Tannehill, (Questionable – left game)
  • Bills – QB Josh Allen, Shoulder (Questionable), RB Damien Harris, Neck (Left Game)
  • Lions – RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Hamstring (Missed Week 6 – Questionable)
  • Rams – RB Kyren Williams, Ankle (Questionable) – not trending to play , RB Ronnie Rivers, PCL (Doubtful)

Wegs Index After 6 Weeks

Is Goff An MVP?
  1. 49ers (5-1, 2.33 Index) – The 49ers had a lot go against them on Sunday – QB Brock Purdy was not able to overcome the injuries and elements in the loss. However, SF still remains on top for now.
  2. Bills (4-2, 5.83) – The Bills dodged a bullet on SNF versus the Giants. Most Bills’ games come down to if Allen turns the ball over. If he plays clean, then they win easily.
  3. Chiefs (5-1, 6.50) – The Chiefs’s D is the unit carrying the Champs this year. 2nd only to SF in Points Allowed Per Game at 14.7. They are winning despite the Offensive slow down.
  4. Lions (5-1, 6.67) – The win at TB showed me something. I called it a prove it spot, and the D was good yet again. 7th in Yards Allowed and 9th in Points Against complement this team’s Offense.
  5. Cowboys (3-2, 7.83) – The Cowboys gritty win on MNF help spirits in DAL as they enter the bye. They still lack the consistency on Offense to challenge the others at the top.
  6. Ravens (4-2, 9.33) – The Ravens are really playing well on D now, 2nd in Yards Allowed at 260.8/Game, second only to CLE.
  7. Eagles (5-1, 9.50) – The lack of 2nd half scoring may come back to haunt them later in the season.
  8. Texans (3-3, 11.17) – Yep, they are playing well. The win over the Saints solidifies the turnaround. Definitely buoyed by +6 in TO Margin.
  9. Rams (3-3, 11.83) – The Rams are definitely back to their formula of running to set up this Offense. Let’s see how they fare against the Steelers.
  10. Jags (4-2, 12.17) – The Lawrence injury will be key, but 3 wins in a row have them climbing the Index.

Fantasy Immediate Pick Ups

Next Man Up in SF is Mason at RB
  • Jordan Love, QB, GB – It’s slim pickens at QB in a heavy bye week and with all the injuries. CJ Beathard may get the start for the Jags, but I think Love (78% Owned) is the best option with the struggling DEN D at home is the best guy, if available.
  • Jordan Mason, RB, SF – With McCaffery potentially missing time, Mason could have a good game at MIN this week and going forward as a handcuff to CMC.
  • Zach Evans, RB, LAR – With Williams out, someone will get the run for LA. I would not expect Williams numbers, but good production in this system.
  • Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT – Check your waiver wire, as this big guy may have been dropped (available in 57% of CBS leagues), Pat has been a good consistent option when healthy.
  • DST Streamer of the Week – WAS Commanders – they get the struggling Giants who haven’t scored a TD in several quarters.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 7

Can the Eagles Ground Tyreek Hill?

Byes: Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans, Titans

  • Lions at Ravens (-3, 42 Total) – Sunday, 10/22 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – The Ravens return from London without the bye (which everyone seems to be opting for). The Lions have continued to meet and even exceed expectations. BAL’s D certainly is tough, but I do think the Lions should take care of business here. In fact, I think the wrong team is favored. DET should be favored on a neutral, so +3 is kind of a slap in the face. I’ll take DET to win and cover +3. Total is Over 42.
  • Steelers at Rams (-3, 44 Total) – Sunday, 10/22 at 3:05 PM on FOX – Are the Rams for real? Well, they certainly have their formula to win. The Steelers are not great against the run, but with a week off to heal up, I think they will come ready to play here. Plus, the crowd should be a lot of Steelers’ fans. I’ll take the Steelers to win and Cover +3 – even with Kenny Pickett at QB. Total is Under 44.
  • Chargers at Chiefs (-5.5, 48 Total) – Sunday, 10/22 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – A great AFC West match up yet again. Now, WR Mike Williams is normally the Chiefs’ killer in this match up. The Chargers have played well to cover in this one traditionally, but this Chiefs’ team is more defensive-minded. I do not like the -5.5, as it is big for this Chiefs’ team, but they will win the game. I think the Chargers cover +5.5. Total goes Under 48 (already came down from 50).
  • Dolphins at Eagles (-1.5, 52 Total) – Sunday, 10/22 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A great SNF game for sure pitting two former Alabama QBs and teammates in this one. The Fins play great against inferior teams, but the Eagles are not that team. In fact, I expect them to be salty after the loss at the Jets. I love the Eagles in this spot to cover -1.5 by a margin. The Total will be Under 52 by a lot, actually. The Eagles will run all over the Fins and play keep away.

Enjoy Week 7.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.