The NFL season week to week is a snapshot. The team that dominates in one week gets beat down the next. It is a tough league with injuries, travel and match ups. That’s why we are sto engaged with this league.

Week 5 Recap

49ers Pummel Cowboys on SNF
  • Bills Injuries Stacking – The Bills traveled to London, mind you on Friday not early in the week, and they didn’t look ready for the London, I mean Jacksonville Jags. The injuries last week to CB White and S Poyer (who played) also added LB Matt Milano to the mix. The Jags moved the ball up and down the field all day (474 total yards) in en route to their 25-20 win. Travis Etienne led the charge with 184 total yards and 2 TDs.
  • Steelers Steal Another – The PIT-BAL rivalry is storied since the Ravens joined the division in the late 1990s. However, lately, the Steelers had won 5 of 6 against them regardless of circumstance. In this one, the Ravens controlled the game as the PIT Offense was abysmal (that’s Kenny Pickett). The Ravens missed at least 2 chances for TDs with dropped passes and only led 10-3 into the 4th Quarter. Then, the PIT special teams and finally a Pickett to Pickens TD led to another Steeler win, 17-10.
  • Falcons At the Gun – One of the more competitive games on Sunday was the Falcons hosting the Texans. QB Desmond Ridder did play better in this one, as the ATL O was able to put up 2 TDs in the fourth quarter after trailing and were able to move into FG range late after HOU took the lead again with 1:49 to play. ATL kicked the GW FG as time expired for the win, 21-19. A good win by ATL, but still have to be impressed with Rookie QB CJ Stroud who still has yet to throw an INT through 5 games.
  • Bengals Bounce Back – It’s been documented how badly Joe Burrow and the Bengals have looked to start the season. Well, WR Jamaar Chase complained last week about being open, and the squeaky wheel got the grease in this one, 15 receptions, 192 yards and 3 TDs – Burrow goes over 300 yards and the D turned over AZ 3 times including a Pick 6 en route to 34-20 win.
  • Jets Get Revenge for Coach – Coach Nathaniel Hackett was the coach of the Denver Broncos in 2022. He did not do well, and he was largely criticized by everyone including current coach, Sean Payton. The Jets took that personally for their now OC Hackett, and after trailing early, scored 23 second half points (including a Defensive TD) en route to a big 31-21 win on the road.
  • 49ers Best Team (for now) – In a showdown spot with DAL on SNF, the 49ers had not faced a quality opponent really to date. So, I, for one, thought the Cowboys could win this one. Well, it was clear from the opening kick off that the 49ers were better than DAL in every aspect of the game. The DAL D could not slow down SF on the ground (170 yards rushing) or air (251 yards passing), plus repeated forced 4 TOs led to a complete blowout, 42-10. DAL seems to be both a poor road team this season and only good in plus matchups. SF is the best team in the NFL if the season ended today.

Predictions: S/U – 1-3, ATS 2-1-1, Totals – 1-3 (my Totals predictions have gone off the rails)

Key Injuries

  • Bills – LB Matt Milano, Broken Leg (out for season), DE DaQuan Jones, Pectoral (Out, Possible for Season)
  • Dolphins – RB Devon Achane, Knee (Doubtful – could be a long term injury)
  • Colts – QB Anthony Richardson, Shoulder (out a month)
  • Giants – QB Daniel Jones, Neck (Questionable)
  • Cowboys – LB Leighton Vander Esch, Neck (Questionable)
  • Vikings – WR Justin Jefferson, Hamstring (Doubtful)
  • Chiefs – TE Travis Kelce, Ankle (Questionable)
  • Lions – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Abdomen (Missed Week 5 Game, Questionable Week 6), DB Emmanuel Moseley, ACL (out for season)
  • Texans – WR Tank Dell, Concussion (Questionable)
  • Jags – OT Cam Robinson, Elbow (Questionable – left game in Week 5)

Wegs Index Thru Week 5

Purdy and SF Flexing in the Index

Yep, it’s time for the Wegs Index. Just a refresher, the Index is the Average Ranking for each team in 6 key areas: Yards/Game, Points/Game, Yards Allowed/Game, Points Allowed/Game, Point Differential and Turnover Margin. A low number indicates a better team, while the Maximum Index would be 32 (or the worst team in the NFL). I’ll update this each week in this post.

1 – 49ers 5-0 (1.83) – No shock here after the crushing victory against DAL – note they were about even going into Week 5. To me, injuries are the only thing that will hamper them to make the NFC Championship Game. 1st in Points Against, Point Differential and Turnover Margin.

2 – Bills 3-2 (4.83) – The previous top squad not only loses in London, but the injuries on D are stacking up. I expect their defensive metrics to dip as the season goes on.

3 – Cowboys 3-2 (7.17) – The Boys got throttled, and another injury on D with LB Leighton Vander Esch. I still think DAL has what they need to be get deep in the playoffs, but coaching and toughness need to improve to have a shot against SF. Burn the SF tape.

4 – Eagles 5-0 (8.00) – The Eagles have done what they needed to do to go 5-0. I still think they have room for improvement as their schedule gets much tougher soon. Carried by the Offense so far – 2nd in Yards Gained and 5th in Points Per Game.

5 – Lions 4-1 (8.50) – DET has quietly looked really good. They stubbed their toe against SEA in Week 2, but clearly the class of the NFC North, if the D continues to play well, they will win a lot of games. Top 6 in Points Scored, Yards Gained, Yards Allowed and Point Differential.

6 – Chiefs 4-1 (8.83) – Like the Eagles, they are getting wins in some tough places, but the Kelce injury looms large as the pass catchers in KC have not been good outside of him. D has been much better than anticipated though. KC is in the Top 10 in every category but TO Differential (-2, 19th).

7 – Ravens 3-2 (10.17) – The Ravens blew their chance to go 3-0 in the division, and I’m always leery of the quick starts by them as in past 2 seasons they have cratered. Still, D is 2nd in both Points Allowed and Yards Allowed.

8 – Texans 2-3 (11.67) – An Index Darling of sorts, but HC Demeco Ryans has been coaching the hell out of this team. 5th in TO Margin helps (+5).

9 – Bucs 3-1 (12.00) – On Bye Week, they are leading the NFC South at this point with QB Baker Mayfield playing decent. Definitely have benefitted by +7 in Turnover Margin (tied for first).

10 – Saints 3-2 (12.67) – The Saints D continues to beat up average offenses (4th in Points Against and Yards Against), and as long as they get something out of the offense will be tough to beat.

Noteworthy, that the Dolphins are 11th in the Index, as the #1 Offense, but Defense is in the 20s in both categories.

Immediate Pick Ups in Fantasy

Minshew Mania is Back for IND
  • Gardiner Minshew, QB, IND – Richardson is going to miss time, and Minshew is a capable starter. Week 6 at the Jags could be a higher scoring game given how the Jags back end has played.
  • Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN – He is still only 70% Owned in CBS leagues, but I would expect that to go up after his first career TD. Spears is getting integrated into the TEN Offense even with Henry on the field. He looks dynamic and a lottery ticket if Henry goes down at any point.
  • Emari Demarcado, RB, AZ – Demarcado got the immediate run once James Connor went out in the CIN game. If Connor misses time, then he seems like the logical guy to get touches at the Rams in Week 6.
  • KJ Osbourne, WR, MIN – If Jefferson does miss time, Osbourne (along with Addison) will benefit immediately. Osbourne had 9 targets on Sunday, when Jefferson left the game. MIN plays the Bears – that’s a juicy match up.
  • Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ – The TE position has been terrible all season, but Conklin now has 4 straight games with 5 targets or more leading to 3 of those games over 50 yards. He is 18% Owned, so a decent start against PHI who is 25th against the position.

Marquee Matchups in Week 6

Can Joe Do It Again Against SEA?

Bye Week: Packers and Steelers

  • 49ers at Browns (+5.5, 37.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/15 at Noon Central on FOX – The Browns come off their bye to try and get right against the red hot 49ers. I’m more interested in seeing if the Browns’ D can neutralize the SF O-Line which has been dominant. If Watson plays, then I would back the Browns, but the line moved up a point and Total down indicating he will not play. I have been fading the 49ers for weeks to no avail, so I’ll need to pick them to win this game, but I’ll say SF Covers the -5.5 (if Watson misses the game), Total Over 37.5. However, weather is supposed to be bad.
  • Colts at Jags (-4, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/15 at Noon Central on CBS – Great AFC South match up here for 1st place. The Jags are not opting for a bye week after 2 weeks in London, so there may be some effects here, plus Minshew will be in at QB. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 (Andrew Luck was the QB), so I have to pick the Jags. Now, will the Colts cover +4, I think so. Over 45.5.
  • Seahawks at Bengals (-3, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/15 at Noon Central on CBS – Are the Bengals right now? I don’t think so, but they certainly are coming off their best game. SEA is coming off the bye fully rested. I think the line is about right for these teams. I’m going to take the dog in this one, but CIN wins the game that FG spread is tricky – SEA +3. Total Under 45.5 with the weather forecast.
  • Cowboys at Chargers (+2, 51 Total) – Monday, 10/16 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – The Boys got housed on national TV, so why not have them on again. Unfortunately for the Chargers, it will be a home game for the Boys in LA. I think DAL comes out swinging in this one, and they will win and Cover +2. Total Under 51.

We are cranking through the season.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.