NFL: Week 4 Trends Are Forming

More wild outcomes, but the stronger squads are forging to the front of the line now.

Week 4 in Review

• Lions Meeting Expectations – The Lions had a lot of buzz in the off season, and despite the loss to SEA 2 weeks ago went into Lambeau and dominated the Packers, 34-20. If the D can play even half decent (currently 4th in Yards Allowed per Game at 280.5), the NFC North is a lock for this team.
• Bengals Are In Trouble – My SB Pick is looking dead at this point. QB Joe Burrow continues to play on a compromised calf, and despite “upgrades” in the O-Line, any team with a good front is destroying the CIN Offense. This week, TEN held the Bengals to just 211 total yards and 2 of 9 on 3rd Down, as the Titans won easily, 27-3. At 1-3, it will take a miracle for the Bengals to make the playoffs let alone win the whole thing.
• 49ers Full Throttle – If there as any wonder if RB Christian McCaffery could carry the full load again the NFL, well, McCaffery destroyed the pesky Cardinals 4 total TDs (3 on the ground, 1 receiving) – McCaffery has now scored in 13 consecutive games for the 49ers and should be an MVP candidate. SF won, 35-16.
• Bills Assert Dominance – The Fins entered in red hot, but that fire was extinguished early, as BUF did whatever they wanted on Offense – QB Josh Allen was excellent – 320 yards passing, 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD with 0 INTs. That effort vaults him to the MVP Favorite at []. The Bills made a statement in the big 48-20 win over MIA.
• The Boys Bounce Back – DAL was upended in AZ last week, but they returned to their dominant ways as they completely dismantled Mac Jones and the Pats, 38-3, holding NE to 253 yards and scoring 2 more Defensive TDs. When that D is on top, I’m not sure there is an equal, although we will see this week in SF.
• Texans May Be That Team – There’s a team every year that goes from nowhere to the playoffs. It’s still early, but it appears CJ Stroud is the pick of this QB class. He still continues to go without throwing INTs and hitting deep passes at a good clip (another bomb to Nico Collins this time of 52 yards). However, it’s the Demeco Ryans D that is starting to get traction giving up just 19.8 PPG through 4 games.

Predictions: Good week on the sides – S/U – 3-1, ATS – 4-0, Totals – 0-4 (completely off there)

Critical Injuries:

• Bills – CB Tredavious White – Achilles (Out Indefinitely), S Jordan Poyer – Knee (Questionable)
• Bengals – WR Tee Higgins – Ribs (Questionable – left game)
• Browns – QB Deshaun Watson – Shoulder (Questionable)
• Colts – OT Bernhard Raimann – Concussion (Questionable), C Ryan Kelly – Concussion (Questionable)
• Chiefs – LB Nick Bolton – Ankle (Questionable)
• Chargers – A lot of injuries, but all listed Questionable including QB Justin Herbert – Finger (Questionable)
• Patriots – LB Matthew Judon – Biceps (Out – should miss several weeks after surgery), CB Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Doubtful)
• Steelers – QB Kenny Pickett – Knee (Questionable – left game)
• Bucs – WR Mike Evans – Hamstring (Questionable)

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First Week with Bye Weeks: Browns, Bucs, Chargers, Seahawks

• Sam Howell, QB, WAS – With he bye weeks, you are missing some solid options – Herbert, Watson, Geno Smith. After a terrible game versus BUF, Howell bounced back nicely at PHI. He gets the Bears this week who are terrible. I would expect him to have a good game, but note, he is better in the 2nd half so don’t get too upset with a slow start. (33% rostered in CBS leagues)
• Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN – Injuries in DEN again open up a new waiver wire RB for at least a week or two. We love our rookie RBs on WegsPool, so scoop him up if you can (6% rostered in CBS Leagues).
• Jameson Williams, WR, DET – Williams was suspended for 6 games, but it was reduced to 4. He can play in Week 5. Williams closed 2022 with some big plays and as good as St. Brown has been, the Lions could use a deep threat. Williams is an add in all leagues (50% rostered in CBS Leagues).
• Dolphins, DST – It’s streaming time for DSTs, too, and the Fins go home to play the terrible Giants. The O Line for NY is bad, and the Fins got embarrassed. I expect sacks and INTs in this one. (Fins are 52% rostered in CBS)

Week 5: Marquee Match Ups

• Jags vs. Bills (-5.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/8 at 8:30 AM Central on NFL Network – The Bills looked like the best team in the AFC on Sunday, but can Josh Allen go two games without turnovers? The Jags stayed in London after the win over the Falcons. So, they will have a rest edge with the travel over the Bills. Plus, the injuries to Tredavious White and Jordan Poyer have to play a factor in this one. I do think the Bills are a better team, but I would not lay this number for them. I’ll have the Bills win, but Jags cover the +5.5. Total is Over 48.5.
• Texans at Falcons (-2, 41 Total) – Sunday, 10/8 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – The Texans have played back to back great games, and maybe they can do it again on the road. Atlanta has been a darling in the preseason, but QB Desmond Ridder has been awful. If they made a switch to someone else, maybe I could back them. I’ll stick with the surging Texans to win and Cover +2. Total goes Under 41.
• Ravens at Steelers (+3.5, 39 Total) – Sunday, 10/8 at 12 Noon on CBS – Classic rivalry game in the NFC North. This game is almost always played within 3 points, and even though QB Kenny Pickett has been bad and banged up, I can’t lay this many points in this matchup – note the game was -4.5 when I first drafted the article. BAL may win this one depending on the PIT starter, but I can’t go against HC Mike Tomlin at home getting 3.5 – PIT covers it. Total goes Over 39.
• Cowboys at 49ers (-4, 45 Total) – Sunday, 10/8 at 7:30 PM Central on NBC – A match up that has given some of the greatest moments in NFC Playoff history, plus a rematch from last year’s Divisional Round matchup. Both teams are playing at a high level, which is why I’m not sure why the 49ers are laying over a FG. Purdy loses his first regular season game here and the Boys win and Cover +4. Total goes Under 45.

Enjoy Week 5.

Wegs