Well, you wouldn’t know it by the stats, as favorites and dogs mostly split in Week 3, but if you are in a Survivor Pool, you probably are out like me.

Week 3 Recap

Dolphins Did This A Lot on Sunday
  • Fins All The Way Up – MIA has been lighting it up all season, but this week, they were in F You Mode, as they took it to the Broncos. Apparently, multiple coaches and players had a beef with DEN management and HC Sean Payton. The Fins came close to breaking the single game scoring record in their 70-20 trouncing of the Broncos. 726 Total Yards!! This was like a college game. MIA is now 3-0, DEN 0-3….
  • Texans Own the Jags – So, it does not seem to matter who is coaching or playing for these teams, as HOU beat down the Jags yet again on Sunday, 37-17, despite JAC being a -8.5 favorite at home. Now, HOU has won 10 of their last 11 meetings. You have to go back to 2017 when the Jags swept the Texans. HOU QB CJ Stroud (280 yards passing, 2 TDs), the rookie, has yet to throw an INT in his first 121 attempts. He hit WR Tank Dell (5 catches for 145 yards, 1 TD) on a back breaking 68 yard bomb to effectively end the game in the 4th Quarter. (My $1000 survivor entry died along with 2400 others in the big Circa contest).
  • Bears In Disarray – Hard to see this, but in a week where the Bears have a DC resign amid questions on criminal level concerns, a QB questioning his coaching and sucking on the field, and Taylor Swift in the press box saying – “Let’s F-in Go!” It is a tough time to be a Bears fan. The Chiefs were able to get right on O with their 41-10 win, so happy for TE Travis Kelce (7 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD) and QB Patrick Mahomes (272 yards passing, 2 TDs), but the Bears may see more heads roll in the next couple weeks as the losses pile up, now 13 straight dating back to last season.
  • Cards Ain’t Quitting – After blowing late leads in both of their first two games, AZ came out guns ablazing again at home versus DAL. This time QB Josh Dobbs (189 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT) and the gang finished the job with their first win, 28-16, in resounding fashion.
  • Burrow Back? – It was a long week for Bengals fans as they eagerly awaited the injury news on their QB Joe Burrow. Then, 90 minutes before kick off, HC Zac Taylor announced Burrow would. They didn’t look amazing on O, but Joe played well and got the ball to WR Ja’Maar Chase (12 catches for 141 yards) early and often for a 19-16 win – their first on the season.

Predictions: God awful week this week – 1-3 S/U, 0-4 ATS (sorry, America), 3-1 Totals – I have that going for me.

Critical Injuries:

  • Chargers – WR Mike Williams – Williams has been often injured in his career, but he tore his ACL Sunday and will miss the rest of the year.
  • Ravens – RB Gus Edwards (Head, Questionable)
  • Panthers – FS Xavier Woods (Hamstring, Doubtful), LB Frankie Luvu (Hip, Questionable)
  • Bears – CB Jaylon Johnson (Hamstring, Questionable)
  • Cowboys – OG Zack Martin (Ankle – Questionable), OT Tyron Smith (Knee, Questionable) were missed on Sunday – CB Trevon Diggs (ACL, IR)
  • Packers – RB Aaron Jones (Hamstring, Questionable but trending towards playing), WR Christian Watson (Hamstring, Questionable)
  • Colts – QB Anthony Richardson (Concussion in Protocol), C Ryan Kelly (Concussion in Protocol)
  • Raiders – QB Jimmy Garoppolo (Concussion in Protocol)
  • Rams – OT Alaric Jackson (Thigh, Questionable) – made a big difference out in the 2nd half on MNF
  • Saints – QB Derek Carr (Shoulder, Questionable)

Fantasy Football Immediate Adds:

Tank Dell Is Exploding
  • CJ Stroud, QB, HOU – See notes above on how he has played so far. I may not like the PIT match up, but he is in the AFC South. Worth a stash for bye weeks now, as he is only 31% owned in CBS leagues.
  • De’Von Achane, RB, MIA – So, the Fins won’t score 70 every week, but Achane was electric with 203 yards Sunday. 61% Owned, he will be 100% by Friday.
  • Melvin Gordon, RB, BAL – The Ghost of Melvin Gordon is back, and with Edwards out, he will get run. He didn’t look awful on Sunday.
  • Tank Dell, WR, HOU – I’m probably a little late to the party after the last 2 weeks, but this rookie has QB CJ Stroud’s eye and can make big plays. He is still just 59% owned.
  • Josh Palmer, WR, LAC – Palmer got the immediate boost with Mike Williams out and his widely available at 9% owned. I still like Johnston more, but immediately you’ll get a pop with Palmer.

Week 4: Marquee Match Ups

Allen Needs to Play Clean Vs MIA
  • Lions at Packers (+1.5, 46 Total) – Thursday, 9/28 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – The Pack have been a surprise through 3 weeks, even if they should have lost in Week 3 versus Saints. The Lions are starting to play as advertised, so this game will go a long way to the NFC North Crown as both teams are 2-1. My numbers show these teams as equal on paper, but I think that is skewed by the SEA game for DET. Even with Aaron Jones back on Thursday, DET should win this game and cover the -1.5. The Total will go Under 46.
  • Falcons vs. Jags (-3, 43.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/1 at 8:30 AM Central on ESPN+ – The first London game will be carried on ESPN Plus, so check your streaming services. The Jags’ 2nd home has been good to them over the years. The Falcons crashed back to earth in DET. I think both teams need a bounce back, but the Jags were embarrassed and know this routine. I like the Jags to win and Cover -3, Total Over 43.5 for the London faithful.
  • Dolphins at Bills (-2.5, 53.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/1 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The AFC East top dogs face off in Buffalo. The Fins have been crushing it to date, especially through the air. The Bills have found their way the last 2 weeks. The Bills live and die with Josh Allen – if he protects the ball, they win. If he doesn’t, he loses. Still, I think the Bills will win this game and Cover -2.5. MIA gets to go up north in the warm weather, but they will have a natural letdown after the big performance last week. Total goes Under 53.5.
  • Bengals at Titans (+2.5, 41 Total) – Sunday, 10/1 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – This great match-up between two tough minded teams. The Bengals finally got their first win on MNF. Now, the O wasn’t fully clicking, so the Titans’ D Line will have to slow down the momentum. I still think the Titans back end is ripe for big plays, and the O has been just ok. Vrabel is a great coach, so very tough to call here, but I think the Bengals get the win, but I’m going to hedge a little having the Titans cover +2.5. Total will go Over 41.

Enjoy Week 4.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.