We are ready for football this Thursday, September 7th kicking off with the Lions visiting the Chiefs. Here are my final predictions for records, playoffs and Super Bowl.
NFL Final Predictions
AFC
AFC East
Jets (13-4) – 4th Seed in AFC – It’s probably the Hard Knocks bump, but I think this team is really good and BUF and MIA have the tougher schedules in this division.
Dolphins (12-5) – 5th Seed in AFC – The Fins really will depend on 2 elements – QB Tua’s health and how effective with DC’s Vic Fangio’s Defense will be without Jalen Ramsey for most of the regular season. I think they hang tough to make it in.
Bills (11-5) – 6th Seed in AFC – It may seem like I’m down on the Bills here, but I’m not. I think they are great. However, their schedule is really tough. The AFC East plays the NFC East this year, which is hard enough, but the Bills have to play KC, CIN and JAC.
Patriots (7-10) – Miss Playoffs – The Pats will still be salty week to week, but do not have enough for the playoffs in my view.
AFC North
Bengals (13-4) – 3 Seed in AFC – Joe Burrow is going to be fine, and the Bengals should be tough to beat in 2023. Yep, they play a tough schedule, too, but that’s never stopped Joe and the team in the past.
Steelers (11-6) – 7 Seed in AFC – I liked the Steelers in my preview, but I think they can get an extra game and sneak in the playoffs this year. QB Kenny Pickett will need to be good, but that D is just too good for most of their schedule. I also think RB Najee Harris has a big year.
Ravens (9-8) – Miss Playoffs – The Ravens have the new OC, sure, but I think their D is suspect. They will struggle against their own division, even if Lamar Jackson is healthy. They now have the 3rd best D in the North. So, I stand by them missing the playoffs.
Browns (6-11) – Miss Playoffs – The Browns could be that team that surprises people (instead of the Steelers) here, but I’ll believe it when I see it. QB Deshaun Watson had a lot of rust, so maybe he is dialed back in, but as I wrote in the preview – the D has been awful. I think they will be competitive, but struggle to win games consistently in the loaded AFC.
AFC South
Jags (13-4) – 2 Seed in AFC – The Jags are coming off a late season surge that propelled them into the playoffs for the first time in a while. I like their outlook despite some experts views. The AFC South is very weak – the weakest division in my view, so that should set them up for success even if they have to play the other Division winners – CIN, BUF and KC. Plus, they get to play the NFC South, which is the 2nd weakest division in the NFL.
Titans (8-9) – Miss Playoffs – Coach Mike Vrabel is awesome, so I know he will defy even my prediction, but this team is on the wrong side of the curve. RB Derrick Henry is on the cliff, and QB Ryan Tannehill is not even league average. That makes the D have to play at an elite level. I do not see that happening in enough games to win in the AFC.
Colts (6-11) – Miss Playoffs – The Colts went from a playoff team for a while to rebuild mode. QB Anthony Richardson could beat the odds as a QB with very little college experience to thrive in the NFL, but will he be able to throw enough to keep defenses honest. Maybe the D will play better than in 2022, and I’ll be wrong here.
Texans (4-13) – Miss Playoffs – Will the Texans improve, yes, but HC Demeco Ryans has a long way to go with the defense and another rookie starting in the division with CJ Stroud make for a rough season. I think they will be in games, but Stroud will struggle in the moment like most rookies.
AFC West
Chiefs (13-4) – 1 Seed – The Chiefs are the defending champs, and of course they are the favorite again. I’m still not a fan of the defense, but Mahomes is out of this world. It is very hard to repeat in the NFL, but I would not be surprised to see yet another AFC Title game in Arrowhead in January. Now, TE Travis Kelce did hyper extend his knee and DE Chris Jones is holding out, but I still trust Mahomes.
Broncos (11-6) – Miss Playoffs (barely) – HC Sean Payton has made a lot of cuts, but that D is legit and I have to believe Russell Wilson will improve. If not, then my prediction could be dead wrong. I did flip them with the Steelers in the playoffs for the last spot, though.
Chargers (10-7) – Miss Playoffs – QB Justin Herbert will lead the league in Passing Yards, but will it be enough to win 11 games? I’m betting against it mainly due to Coach Staley’s poor decision making in games. On paper, they are better than the Broncos and Steelers, but Chargers are going to Charger.
Raiders (4-13) – Miss Playoffs – HC Josh McDaniels does it yet again.
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
7 Steelers over 2 Jags – The Jags easy schedule will cost them when the Steelers come to town.
3 Bengals over 6 Bills – The Bengals have been game in playoff match ups, and as good as the Bills are it will be a tough day.
4 Jets over 5 Dolphins – Aaron Rodgers will have another one in him, as this AFC East matchup will be fun to watch.
Divisional Round
1 Chiefs over 7 Steelers – Not enough Offense for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers in this one.
3 Bengals over 4 Jets – Maybe not Rodgers swan song, but the young gun in Burrow will show him the door.
AFC Championship
3 Bengals over 1 Chiefs – Even if the Chiefs win the regular season matchup, DC Lou Anarumo always figures out a way to slow down Mahomes.
NFC
NFC East
Cowboys (12-5) – 2 Seed in NFC – The Boys should benefit from not having to play the first place schedule, but it will be fight to the end with PHI.
Eagles (12-5) – 5 Seed in NFC – It is tough to return to the Super Bowl when you lose. That’s may may handicap. Tough schedule, too, but they have the team to do it.
Giants (7-10) – Miss Playoffs – A fall back to earth, as last year they pulled out too many close games. Regression will happen.
Commanders (4-13) – Miss Playoffs – Sure, QB Sam Howell looks capable, but it’s a tough division for an inexperienced passer.
NFC North
Lions (10-7) – 4 Seed in NFC – The Lions have all the expectations, so they may crumble. However, the division is not strong.
Vikings (8-9) – Miss Playoffs – The Vikes were worse than the Giants last year pulling out wins out of their butts time and again. Regression is definitely coming.
Bears (8-9) – Miss Playoffs – Big improvement here, but let’s not get too excited.
Packers (7-10) – Miss Playoffs – The Pack will not be as bad as I originally thought, but still QB Jordan Love will have growing pains and the D isn’t great.
NFC South
Falcons (11-6) – 3 Seed in NFC – Yep, I increased the win total. I think the Falcons are the Jags of the NFC this year. Fun offense and enough D for this poor division.
Saints (9-8) – 6 Seed in NFC – As much as I want them to miss the playoffs, 4-0 over the dregs of the division get you a good base number.
Panthers (4-13) – Miss Playoffs – QB Bryce Young may get sacked a lot, and even if the D isn’t terrible, it’s going to be a long year.
Bucs (2-15) – Miss Playoffs – The Bucs would be a league worst if not for the Cardinals.
NFC West
49ers (13-4) – 1 Seed in NFC – The 49ers are great, even if I do not believe in QB Brock Purdy.
Seahawks (9-8) – 7 Seed in NFC – I’m not on board with SEA to win the West, but they should get to the Dance this year.
Rams (4-13) – Miss Playoffs – WR Cooper Kupp not playing Week 1 doesn’t help this team that is a shell of itself.
Cardinals (1-16) – Miss Playoffs (#1 Pick) – QB Kyler Murray being named Captain means nothing with Josh Dobbs is starting. The Tank for Caleb chants will happen at their first come game.
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
2 Cowboys over 7 Seahawks – Too much D for the Seattle O in that one.
3 Lions over 6 Saints – A rapid Lions’ fanbase will be ready for their return to the playoffs.
5 Eagles over 4 Falcons – The Birds will ball out in ATL. Then, they will hit Magic City.
Divisional Round
1 49ers over 5 Eagles – I think there will be some payback this year when these teams meet in January.
2 Cowboys over 3 Lions – A fun match up here, but the Boys will find a way to best the Lions.
NFC Championship
1 49ers over 2 Cowboys – This storied rivalry continues, but I can’t trust HC Mike McCarthy.
Super Bowl
Bengals over 49ers – Burrow is ready for his first Lombardi Trophy, and the Brock Purdy run will end short yet again.
Enjoy Week 1!
Wegs