This will be the first of two posts for Fantasy Football Drafting. Today I’ll talk about drafting trends and how to approach this year’s drafts.
2023 Fantasy Trends
Quarterbacks Depend On Format
Teams pass more than ever, so every QB has value. I have been a big proponent of waiting on QBs in almost all my leagues. However, as much as QBs score in almost all formats, you need to project scoring to really know how each one stacks up.
- Large Format Leagues – Most leagues are 12 team or less, but if you are in 14 teams or more, then waiting doesn’t work. You’ll need to get a Top 7-8 QB instead of 14-15. If you do take a QB that early, then wait on TE.
- Super Flex or 2 QB Leagues – First round QB, then wait, but you’ll need at least 2 with different bye weeks.
- 4 Point Per TD vs. 6 Point Per TD – Rushing QBs have more value in 4 Points per Passing TD leagues, but in 6 Point Per Passing TD leagues it levels the playing field. Rushing yards are awesome and definitely raise the floor of a QB, however TDs are important. If you have a QB on a high scoring team, that’s more valuable than anything else.
Running Backs Are Not Premium
The NFL has changed over the past 10-15 years with the passing game completely overtaking the league. In the league, the RB position has been devalued on the team and the contracts are way lower than other positions. It has taken some time, but even in Fantasy Football the RB has been devalued with RB committees and limited roles for most RBs. This year for the first time in my history as a fantasy player the top 3-6 picks will not necessarily be RBs. The league has changed a lot with holdouts from players like IND’s Jonathan Taylor (who wants to be traded), LV’s Josh Jacobs (still holding out), and NYG’s Saquon Barkley (he did recently sign a one year deal).
So, think long and hard about the RBs at the top of the draft. Is there any true bell cows now?
- Christian McCaffery, 49ers – He is at the top of most RB lists in a good running system and still in the Top 5 picks in most drafts. Here’s the issue with McCaffery – health and he will split carries at some level. If he’s the best, then who else?
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons – Amazing talent. Great pass catcher like McCaffery. Run heavy system, but he is a rookie, and Tyler Algier did lead all rookie RBs in rushing last year. So, he will not get Derrick Henry type work, even if it is the same system under Arthur Smith.
- Austin Ekeler, Chargers – In a great offense, but at some point his size will either lead to injury or lack of goal line success even if in 2022 his usage in the red zone was insane.
- Saquon Barkley, Giants – Barkley’s holdout is over, even though he only got a 1 year deal. Barkley has had his health issues, and possibly the league will catch up to the system Coach Daboll employed.
There will always be RBs needed on your squad, but do not be blind and just pick RB in Round 1 like most years. The strategy should be to take RBs at all stages of the draft – some known starters, handcuff for first and second rounders and look at young legs in the later rounds.
Wide Receivers Plentiful
To follow the logic on how the NFL has evolved, the WRs have increased in value over time. However, since teams typically spread the ball around, you can find WRs at every stage of the draft that can get you points. What makes the difference between an average fantasy team and a league winner is digging into what matters.
- Top Picks Are WRs in 2023 – This year most consensus drafts have MIN’s Justin Jefferson as the top overall pick in fantasy in PPR formats. CIN’s Jamar Chase isn’t far behind with MIA’s Tyreek Hill and LAR’s Cooper Kupp in the Top 10.
- Targets Matter – We all love TDs. QBs need them to score, but for WRs, TDs are fluky. Your perfect case is BUF’s Gabe Davis – he can score 3 TDs in a game, but not break 50 yards in 4 other games. Like RBs, you need the players that touch the ball the most, and that is how many Targets they get.
- High Volume Attacks vs. Low Volume WR1s – I will always pick a WR in a high volume attack with moderate targets over the lone target in a low volume attack. It seems contradictory to the bullet point above, but if you have the lone target in a low volume attack like say DJ Moore in CHI versus Tee Higgins in CIN a much higher volume attack, then go high.
- Route Running vs. Speed – You may not dig too deep into scouting reports, but beware of falling in love with fast WRs. The important thing is getting open not how fast a WR is. Route running is more about timing, quickness and leverage versus pure jets.
When it comes to draft day, WRs should be picked early and often, but finding solid WRs on the wire is always possible to fill in flex spots.
Elite Tight Ends Are Premium
There can be no greater difference maker on your team than a top TE. I owe Gronk 2 of my titles alone. I’m sure most people who have had Travis Kelce on their team are always in it. The real question is at what price.
- Kelce Level Above – At some point the 33 year old will decline, it could be this year. However, in a year when there is no clear RB1 or RB1-5, Kelce is going as high as the Top 3 in some drafts. He has both a high floor and high ceiling like most RBs or even top WRs.
- Not Just TDs – TEs need to do more than catch TDs. Just like WRs – targets are premium and high volume offenses. Talent is not enough.
- After Top 6 TEs – After Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Waller, Kittle, and maybe PItts – Wait on TE!! The next 5-8 guys are pretty interchangeable. Sure, Goedert, Freiermuth and Engram have a lot of upside, but at that stage of the draft you can take better WRs and RBs.
Those are the trends, which doesn’t mean you need to follow them. Just have a plan. Stick to it.
I’ll post my Top 150 Players on Friday, 8/25 before Draft Weekend.
Wegs