NFL: AFC West Divisional Preview

We have hit the home stretch in the NFL Division previews with the West divisions – home of a lot of good teams.

AFC West Preview

Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 Wins, -182 AFC West, +340 AFC, +600 SB)

Additions:

• Free Agents: OT Jawaan Taylor, S Mike Edwards, OT Donovan Smith, QB Blaine Gabbert
• Draft Class: DE Feliz Anudike-Uzomah (1st), WR Rashee Rice (2nd), S Chamarri Conner (4th), DT Deondre Coburn (6th), CB Nic Jones (7th)

Departures: LB Frank Clark (Broncos), DE Carlos Dunlap (FA), WR Mecole Hardman (Jets), OT Orlando Brown (Bengals), WR Juju Smith-Schuster (Patriots), OG Andrew Wylie (Commanders)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Andy Reid shuffles the deck with the departure of Eric Bieniemy to WAS, so Matt Nagy is back at OC – same scheme. DC Steve Spagnuolo returns with the same scheme, so nothing really changes.

Outlook: The Chiefs are the class of the NFL, but it is extremely hard to repeat as champ. QB Patrick Mahomes will be in contention for the MVP again, but how different will the O look without Bieniemy? I think they still win the West and get the 1 Seed, but they will not win the Super Bowl. Hard to bet against them, but everyone is gunning for them this year.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st AFC West, 1 Seed

Denver Broncos (8.5 Wins, +600 AFC West +2800 AFC, +5000 SB)

Additions:

• Trade: TE Adam Trautman from NO
• Free Agents: DE Zach Allen, LB Frank Clark, OT Mike McGlinchey, RB Samaje Perine, OG Ben Powers, CB Tremon Smith, QB Jerrett Stidham
• Draft Class: WR Marvin Mims (2nd), LB Drew Sanders (3rd), CB Riley Moss (3rd), S JL Skinner (6th)

Departures: RB Chase Edmonds (Bucs), RB Latavius Murray (Bills), OG Dalton Risner (FA)

Coaching/Scheme: New HC Sean Payton comes via trade actually with the Saints for draft picks. Payton brings aboard Joe Lombardi as OC which means the Saints way should be seen in Denver with his time under Payton 2016-2020 as QB Coach and before that working his way up. I think that means a lot of play action with Russell Wilson. At DC, Payton brings Vance Joseph who actually was the head coach for the Broncos in 2017-2018, most recently with Arizona. Joseph’s defenses have been solid, but not great yet he inherits a very stout group.

Outlook: The Broncos are going to be not just a trendy pick this year, but a polarizing topic. With HC Sean Payton at the helm, they will be better than the last regime. We know the D is good, really good. It boils down to QB Russell Wilson (who is expecting yet another baby with Ciara – how can I blame him). Early reports are not fantastic with Wilson who is in better shape than last year, but is he just done? I think that Payton will have this team ready to contend in the division and find a way in the loaded AFC for a playoff berth. If I were to bet any AFC team to win the Super Bowl based on the odds alone, it would be Denver (note they are not my final SB Winner). Still +5000 is a good bet.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd AFC West, 7 Seed

Los Angeles Chargers (9.5 Wins, +325 AFC West, +1300 AFC, +2500 SB)

Additions:

• Free Agents: LB Eric Kendricks
• Draft Class: WR Quentin Johnston (1st), DE Tuli Tuipulotu (2nd), LB Daiyan Henley (3rd), WR Derius Davis (4th), OG Jordan McFadden (5th), DE Scott Matlock (6th), QB Max Duggan (7th)

Departures: S Nasir Adderly (Retired), CB Bryce Callahan (FA), LB Kyle Van Noy (FA)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Brandon Staley comes back with a new OC in Kellen Moore from DAL. Moore is an inventive play caller, but gets a little carried away sometimes with the trickery. Still, with Moore and QB Justin Herbert, they will put up points. DC Derrick Ansley was promoted up from the DB Coach. Staley will likely call the Defense, but it’s that unit that matters for success. Not a lot of new faces or scheme, so health and execution are critical.

Outlook: Full disclosure: I love the Chargers, always have. I think QB Herbert and his amazing hair is primed to have his best season and could be an MVP candidate. However, HC Staley is garbage. He has proved in 2 seasons that he can’t win in the clutch and in this AFC you need to be a calculated killer. They will be on the verge of the playoffs yet again, so my final prediction will largely depend on Denver. I think they miss the playoffs and Staley gets the ax for a better coach.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd AFC West, Miss Playoffs

Las Vegas Raiders (6.5 Wins, +1500 AFC West, +4000 AFC, +8000 SB)

Additions:

• Free Agents: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Philip Dorsett, LB Robert Spillane, S Marcus Epps, TE Austin Hooper, CB Marcus Peters
• Draft Class: DE Tyree Wilson (1st), TE Michael Mayer (2nd), WR Tre Tucker (3rd), DT Byron Young (3rd), CB Jakorian Bennett (4th), QB Aidan O’Connell (4th), S Chris Smith (5th), LB Amari Burney (6th)

Departures: QB Derek Carr (Saints), TE Darren Waller (Giants), WR Mack Hollins (Falcons), S Rock Ya-Sin (Ravens), TE Foster Moreau (Saints), DE Clelin Ferrell (49ers)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Josh McDaniels has the same unit back with OC Mick Lombardi and DC Patrick Graham. So, any improvements will need to come from players over scheme. Not a lot of sizzle for Sin City.

Outlook: The Raiders were one of the biggest disappointments in 2022, so my view of them in 2023 is pretty grim. HC Josh McDaniels has gutted the roster in a very Belichickian way, but he is not Bill. Plus, he does not have the horses to compete in this division. Rookie Tyree Wilson could flash and contend for DROY if he gets on the field enough. I’m probably too harsh on the win total, but if they make the playoffs someone will win big in Vegas on that bet, not me.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th AFC West, Miss Playoffs

One more to go.

Wegs