NFL: AFC South Divisional Preview

As we move to the South Divisions, it gets a little uglier.

AFC South Preview

There has been a changing of the guard in this division, but it is still not a foregone conclusion.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5 Wins, -167 AFC South, +1300 AFC, +2500 SB)

Additions:

• Trade: Calvin Ridley – well this was actually 2022, but Ridley was suspended for betting on games. He missed the entirety of the 2022 season and is now in camp with the Jags.
• Free Agents: DE Adam Gotsis, DE Michael Dogbe, DT Henry Mondeaux
• Draft Class: OT Anton Harrison (1st), TE Benton Strange (2nd), RB Tank Bigsby (3rd), LB Ventrell Miller (4th), DE Tyler Lacy (4th), LB Yasir Abdullah (5th), S Antonio Johnson (5th), FB Derek Parish (7th)

Departures: DE Arden Key (Titans), WR Marvin Jones (Lions), DT Corey Peters (Retired), OT Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Doug Pederson returns his full crew with OC Press Taylor and DC Mike Caldwell returning. Pederson found late season success with playcalling and the D was really solid.

Outlook: I know, I know, I’m a little too bullish on this team. However, like the Lions, I like teams that end on hot streaks the year before. Jacksonville closed on a complete tear winning 6 out of 7 in the regular season, plus they overachieved with that crazy comeback in the Wild Card round against the Chargers and had a real shot to take the Chiefs to OT in the Divisional Round. The team is mostly intact from last year with a lot of depth added in the Draft and Free Agency. Only new starters are Ridley and the rookie RT Anton Harrison. QB Trevor Lawrence will only get better, and the division being so poor will give them a shot to even grab the 1 Seed. I see them winning this division fairly easily and getting a great seed in the AFC. I am going to bet Over 9.5 Wins and may dabble in a Jags AFC future of +1300.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st AFC South, 2 Seed AFC

Tennessee Titans (7.5 Wins, +325 AFC South, +4000 AFC, +7500 SB)

Additions:

• Free Agents: WR DeAndre Hopkins, OT Andre Dillard, DE Arden Key, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, OG Daniel Brunskill, OT Chris Hubbard, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, OG Corey Levin
• Draft Class: OG Peter Skoronski (1st), QB Will Levis (2nd), RB Tyjae Spears (3rd), OT Jaelyn Duncan (6th), TE Josh Whyle (5th)

Departures: WR Robert Woods (Texans), LB Zach Cunningham (Eagles), OT Taylor Lewan (FA), OG Nate Davis (Bears), DE DeMarcus Walker (Bears), DE Tarell Basham (Bengals), LB Bud Dupree (Falcons), OT Le’Raven Clark (Steelers), TE Austin Hooper (Raiders), CB Lonnie Johnson (Saints)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Mike Vrabel is back. OC Tim Kelly gets promoted from Passing Game Coordinator, so maybe the plan is to throw the ball more. Yet Tannehill is still at the helm with Levis being too green to play. DC Shane Bowen has lost some veterans on this team that got after the QB. I would expect the same scheme, however.

Outlook: The Titans had their run, but the team had gotten older and despite HC Vrabel being the best in this division there is only so much he could do. The roster has mostly turned over on Offense with a whole new O-Line for this running attack with veterans and the 1st rounder. It looks like they want to throw more, but not sure that will be possible. On D, there are a lot of new faces at LB, but the scheme was mostly successful the past 2 seasons. I expect a good start, but as the season continues injuries and a less dynamic scheme will have them flutter down the stretch. I think they miss the playoffs in the loaded AFC.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd AFC South, Miss Playoffs

Indianapolis Colts (6.5 Wins, +650 AFC South, +5000 AFC, +10000 SB)

Additions:

• Free Agents: QB Gardiner Minshew, DT Taven Bryan, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Samson Sebukam
• Draft Class: QB Anthony Richardson (1st), CB JuJu Brents (2nd), WR Josh Downs (3rd), OT Blake Freeland (4th), DT Adetomiwa Adebawore (4th), TE Will Mallory (5th), RB Evan Hull (5th), CB Darius Rush (5th), DE Titus Leo (6th), CB Jaylon Jones (7th)

Departures: QB Matt Ryan (FA), DE Ben Banogu (Cowboys), S Rodney McLeod (Browns), LB Bobby Okereke (Giants), WR Parris Campbell (Giants), DE Yannick Ngakoue (Bears)

Coaching/Scheme: Big changes here with HC Shane Steichen getting his first big gig from PHI. He brings in OC Jim Bob Cooter who was with the Lions a while back most recently with the Jags. Steichen and Cooter will try to make Richardson, Jalen Hurts 2.0. On D, Steichen kept DC Gus Bradley, so that scheme should be the same.

Outlook: The Colts are a far cry from the playoff team of 2020, as the last 2 seasons have been completely disappointing. The Jonathan Taylor drama has continued into camp, and looking at the roster, he doesn’t have a lot of leverage for a bad team. The Colts are in minor rebuild mode with the rookie QB and an attempt to stay relevant in an AFC that is strong at every turn. Richardson has a big arm and is athletic, but unlike Hurts he only started one year in college. It will take a minute. I’m probably being too generous with my win total for this team, as they will not contend in the AFC South or make the playoffs. I will likely adjust the total down on the final predictions in September.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd AFC South, Miss Playoffs

Houston Texans (6.5 Wins, +900 AFC South, +8000 AFC, +20000 SB)

Additions:

• Trade: OG Shaq Mason
• Free Agents: CB Tavierre Thomas, S Jimmie Ward, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, TE Dalton Schultz, WR Robert Woods, LB Denzel Perryman
• Draft Class: QB CJ Stroud (1st), DE Will Anderson (1st), Juice Scruggs (2nd), WR Tank Dell (3rd), WR Xavier Hutchinson (6th)

Departures: DE Mario Addison (FA), TE OJ Howard (Raiders), DE Rasheem Green (Bears), TE Jordan Akins (Browns), OG AJ Cann (FA)

Coaching/Scheme: HC DeMeco Ryans takes this revolving door job. I think he has some staying power based on his experience as a Texan and his control of the D in SF. His OC is Bobby Slowik from SF where he was the Passing Game Coordinator on a run heavy team. His DC is Matt Burke who has been around most recently with the Cardinals as a D Line coach, but Ryans will call the D mostly.

Outlook: The Texans are trying to gain some traction. After losing the #1 pick on the last game of the season, they moved up in the draft to get the #3 pick for back to back picks getting CJ Stroud at QB and Will Anderson at DE. Maybe the youth will help Ryans create a culture that will lead to victories. He has brought over some of his guys from SF, but it could take time. I think they will improve, but not by too much. Their goal will be to be better than the Colts. I think I will push them up prior to the season in wins.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th AFC South, Miss Playoffs

We will move on to the NFC South on Thursday.

Wegs