NFL training camps have begun, and so we are going to dig into each team, division by division. The Hall of Fame Game will be played Thursday, so it’s go time.

A note on format, I will give an overview of the division. For each team, I’ll review key additions, departures and any coaching/scheme changes. Then, I’ll give a team outlook with prediction of final record and playoff seeding, if applicable. My goal will be to do 2 divisions a week. My final records and predictions article will be published just prior to the start of the season with adjusted records based on training camps and pre-season.

Update Note – I added the futures and win totals for each team.

AFC East Division

Overview: The AFC East should be the best division in the NFL. You have 2 great QBs in the division and 4 excellent coaches. This should come down to the Week 18, but I currently have 3 teams in the playoffs from the division.

Buffalo Bills (10.5 Wins, +120 AFC East, +500 AFC Title, +900 Super Bowl)

Allen and the Bills Will Need to Earn It in 2023

Additions:

  • Free Agents include: OG Connor McGovern, RB Damien Harris, S Taylor Rapp, RB Latavius Murray, DE Leonary Floyd
  • Draft Class includes: TE Dalton Kincaid (1st), OG O’Cyrus Torrence (2nd), Dorian Williams (3rd) WR Justin Shorter (5th)

Departures: RB Devin Singletary (HOU), Tremaine Edmunds (CHI), WR Isaiah McKenzie (IND)

Coaching/Scheme: The coaching group remains mainly intact. HC Sean McDermott and OC Ken Dorsey return, but DC Leslie Frazier is out with no one officially filling the vacancy. That means McDermott will be the main mind on D, which could actually improve the D.

Outlook: The Bills are still the most talented team in the division, but the pack has caught up. I have them still winning the division, but that is based mostly on the arm of Josh Allen. The D has let them down in consecutive seasons. Coach McDermott needs to figure out a way to keep guys on the field in December and beyond. The rookie class gives much needed depth and a potential playmaker in Justin Shorter. The Bills have been on the doorstep before, but with the AFC being loaded their window is closing quickly.

Prediction: 12-5 – 1st in AFC East, 4 Seed in AFC

Miami Dolphins (9.5 Wins, +300 AFC East, +1200 AFC, +2200 SB)

Tua Healthy and Improving on D Make the Fins Tough

Additions:

  • Trade: CB Jalen Ramsey via the Rams (however on IR until December with meniscus tear)
  • Free Agents: WR Braxton Berrios, OT Isaiah Wynn, CB Eli Apple, QB Mike White
  • Draft Class: CB Cam Smith (2nd), RB Devon Achane (3rd)

Departures: TE Mike Gesicki (NE), DE Melvin Ingram (FA)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Mike McDaniel returns in charge with OC Frank Smith back for this explosive attack. The big change was at DC as Vic Fangio enters in 2023. Fangio has been able to build top units wherever he has gone (except in the SB for PHI), and that may be the edge MIA needs in the division.

Outlook: The Fins are on the upswing, but that injury to Ramsey takes a bit of wind out of their sails. The other additions in the off season were minor compared to adding Ramsey. So, if they can tread water until his return, he could make a difference in the playoffs. I still think Tua won’t stay healthy again, but Mike White is a capable back up in a pinch.

Prediction: 12-5 – 2nd in AFC East via tiebreaker, 5th Seed in AFC

New York Jets (9.5 Wins, +250 AFC East, +1000 AFC, +1600 SB)

Rodgers to Jets Makes Them SB Contenders

Additions:

  • Trade: QB Aaron Rodgers via Packers
  • Free Agents: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Randall Cobb, WR Allan Lazard, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Adrian Amos, *Update – RB Dalvin Cook signed
  • Draft Class: DE Will McDonald (1st), C Joe Tippmann (2nd), OT Carter Warren (4th), RB Israel Abanikanda (5th)

Departures: Braxton Barrios (MIA), DE Sheldon Rankins (HOU)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Robert Saleh returns with his DC Jeff Ulbrich, but the big change is bringing in Rodgers favorite OC, Nathaniel Hackett off his firing in DEN. That reunion seems to have proliferated through the off season signings.

Outlook: The Jets were on the doorstep of the playoffs in 2022 with poor to average QB play. Now, they have Rodgers in his swan song. The young Jets just got older at the right position, and if Saleh can manage the Rodgers ego enough to win big games, I think the Jets are a contender. I see a slow start, but I think they get hot and make the playoffs.

Prediction: 12-5, 3rd in the AFC East via tiebreaker, 6 Seed in the AFC

New England Patriots (7.5 Wins, +900 AFC East, +3300 AFC, +6000 SB)

At What Point Is Bill Going to Hang Up the Hoodies?

Additions:

  • Free Agents: WR Juju Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Riley Reiff
  • Draft Class: CB Christian Gonzalez (1st), DE Keion White (2nd), S Marte Mapu (3rd), C Jake Andrews (4th), K Chad Ryland (4th), OG Sidy Sow (4th), G Antonio Mafi (5th), WR Demario Douglas (6th), WR Kayshon Boutte (6th), P Bryce Baringer (6th)

Departures: RB Damien Harris (BUF), OT Isaiah Wynn (MIA), Devin McCourty (Retired)

Coaching/Scheme: HC Bill Belichick is back with the DC side intact – Steve Belichick (and that mullet) with Jerod Mayo. The change here is at OC as Bill O’Brien is back with Belichick after years elsewhere. O’Brien is a great offensive mind and definitely knows the Belichick way.

Outlook: The Patriots reign of the AFC East is a distant memory now. They are the 4th best team in the division. Now, if they were in the NFC, they would probably make the playoffs, but this team will not sniff the division unless Mack Jones plays incredibly. I’ve heard that Taylor Zappe is outplaying him already in camp, so regardless of who is under center, they need the Offense to step up. Upgrades at TE and some depth at WR are probably not enough to get there in my view.

Prediction: 7-10, 4th in the AFC East, out of the playoffs

Alright one in the books, look for the NFC East next.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.