NFL Draft: 2023 Preview

The NFL season seemed like it just ended, but in reality, the NFL never sleeps. Leave it to the NFL to make themselves relevant every month of the year. This week have one of the more exciting off season events in the NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Basics

I’ve written several articles over the past 5 years on the Draft. So, check out the previous articles to get the basics.

https://wegspool.com/category/nfl-draft-2018/page/2/

This year, the Draft is on Thursday, April 27th beginning at 7 PM Central time – 1st Round only and is being held Kansas City, MO (home of the World Champion Chiefs). Friday, April 28th Rounds 2-3 starts at 6 PM Central. Finally, Rounds 4-7 are on Saturday, April 29th almost all day – 11 AM Central.

This year, there are only 31 picks in the 1st Round with MIA not having a pick (due to tampering).

Draft Order (Current as of 4/24/2023)

1. Panthers (from Bears – future picks)
2. Texans
3. Cardinals
4. Colts
5. Seahawks (from Broncos – Russell Wilson trade)
6. Detroit (from Rams – Stafford trade)
7. Raiders
8. Falcons
9. Bears (from Panthers)
10. Eagles (from Saints – Olave trade involving AJ Brown)
11. Titans
12. Texans (from Browns – Watson trade)
13. Packers (from Jets – Rodgers trade on Monday, 4/24)
14. Patriots
15. Jets (from Packers)
16. Commanders
17. Steelers
18. Lions
19. Bucs
20. Seahawks
21. Chargers
22. Ravens
23. Vikings
24. Jags
25. Giants
26. Cowboys
27. Bills
28. Bengals
29. Saints (from 49ers – via Broncos for HC Sean Payton – previously used for Trey Lance move up)
30. Eagles
31. Chiefs

Draft Analysis

As written in other articles, the Draft is part science and part art. The Science is valuing Draft Positions, prospect measurables, and self-scouting team needs. The Art is finessing draft positions with other teams to find a partner that needs to move up for their own needs and player evaluations for future picks in other years’ drafts or later in this year’s draft. I like to look at the Players first, then Team needs. Let’s do that.

Top Prospects

Like most years in the modern NFL, Quarterbacks whether they are truly elite or not, move up the board. So, even if another position player is clearly the best in this class, QBs rise on the board based purely on Team Need more than any other position. So, instead of listing the Top 31 players, I’ll group them into position groups.

Bryce will be #1

Quarterbacks

This Draft is not a strong QB draft. Does it have potential starters? Sure, but even Bryce Young is not Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. He may be the #1 Overall pick, but that is more due to the NFL, as for the other 2-3 guys who can go on Thursday.

• Bryce Young (Alabama, Projected #1 Pick) – Early in the draft process, there was a lot of speculation on Young not being #1 due to his size. He is not prototypical – 5’10” and 204 lbs (the day after Thanksgiving). He is more like 190 or less. Still, Young has elite footwork and anticipation. His arm is strong enough, and he is now a lock for the #1 pick at -1500 odds. I think most people wrongly comp him to Kyler Murray due to his size, I think his better comp is Drew Brees.
• Will Levis (Kentucky, Projected Top 5) – Levis is an actual QB without a lot of caveats at 6’4″, 229 lbs, but he is not the athlete of the other guys in this class, but he is safe. His offense in college was not eye popping, but he is a solid player that can start in the league in the right system. HOU is now eyeing him at #2.
• CJ Stroud (Ohio State, Projected Top 10) – Stroud is that prototypical height at 6’3″, but a little light at 213. Still, he has a big arm, and he should be a solid prospect. Let’s not ignore that Buckeye QBs have not fared well in the NFL (Justin Fields long term prospects are still under evaluation). So, Houston may take him at #2, but apparently he did very poorly on this predictive test and is falling on draft boards now.
• Anthony Richardson (Florida, Projected Top 15) – Richardson is one of those workout beasts – 6’4″, 244 lbs, but he is an explosive athlete that skyrocketed after his incredible combine. He has limited playing experience in college plus he is raw. Not sure if Richardson is an NFL QB. He certainly has the athleticism. He will need to be paired with a great, not good QB Coach or OC who can give Richardson some time to develop.
• Hendon Hooker (Tennessee, Projected 1st Round) – Hooker is coming off an ACL injury late in the 2022 season. Without the injury, I think Hooker was a definite 1st Rounder. He is athletic and can throw the ball on a dynamic college offense. The only issue is the injury. He will not play much if at all in 2023, so he will need to go somewhere with a vet QB ahead of him.
• Other Guys: Then, the field drops off the map after Hooker you are talking about the 144th best player in the Draft at Jake Haener (Fresno State) or Clayton Tune (Houston). Can there be a Brock Purdy in this Draft? Maybe. I like Max Duggan from TCU who played really well against top competition – I see Minshew in him. He may not get drafted at all, but he should make a roster. Another undrafted guy I’m watching is Tyson Bagent (6’3″, 210 lbs) who played at Shepherd a DII school – comps to Jared Goff for me. He was invited to the Senior Bowl and looked decent in practices.

Edge Rushers

Wilson Is Better Than Anderson

The next group of guys that fly off the board in typical drafts are the pass rushers. However, this year is not as deep as other guys, so the position will be a premium, always.

• Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech, Projected Top 5) – Wilson is a senior, and he is explosive even at his size at 6’6″, 271 lbs. He needs to be polished, and he has potential. He is the most dynamic of this group, and some feel he is better than Anderson. So, I’m putting him in the Top 5 and ahead of Anderson.
• Will Anderson (Alabama, Projected Top 5) – Anderson has been great at Bama for years, and he is fast and explosive at 6’4″, 253 lbs. He is has a high floor, but he will either go #3 to Arizona or #6 to Detroit.
• Lukas Van Ness (Iowa, Top 15) – Van Ness is on the younger side, but he is an athlete, 6’5″, 272 lbs. Again, in most years, the Edge class is deeper with more guys in the Top 15. Still this guy will be productive. Plus, his nickname is Hercules, so that should give him a following immediately.
• Myles Murphy (Clemson, Top 20) – Maybe a little sexier than Van Ness with a better pedigree at Clemson. He is 6’5″, 268 lbs, but Van Ness has more potential.
• Nolan Smith (Georgia, Top 20) – A little lighter than the rest of this bunch, so more of a 3-4 Edge than versatile at 6’2″, 238 lbs. He has the speed to be disruptive though.
• 2nd Round Guys:
  • Derrick Hall, Auburn – 6’3″, 254 lbs.
  • Keion White, Georgia Tech – 6’5″, 285 lbs.
  • BJ Ojulari, LSU – 6’2″, 248 lbs.
  • Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State – 6’3″, 255 lbs.
  • Will McDonald, Iowa State – 6’4″, 239 lbs.
  • Jalen Redmond, Oklahoma – 6’2″, 291 lbs.

Offensive Line

Johnson Shows That Size Matters

Now, the O Line is highly valued in an offensive league. OTs first, then Guards and Centers, although versatility along the line is highly coveted in a league that has so many injuries.

• Paris Johnson (Ohio State, Top 10) – A quick big man at 6’6″, 313 lbs. who played on a team that threw the ball at will, which is perfect for most NFL teams at Left Tackle.
• Peter Skoronski (Northwestern, Top 10) – The top OT in the class at 6’4″, 313 lbs. He will probably be a guard in the NFL, but he still could play Right Tackle for a running team, too.
• Broderick Jones (Georgia, Top 25) – An early entrant in the NFL Draft which may not be a great idea for him if he slips to the 2nd round. I hope it works out for him, as he may end up on a playoff team as a swing tackle.
• Darnell Wright (Tennessee, 1st Round) – 6’5″, 333 lbs. – he is a fluid big man that can play right away.
• Anton Harrison (Oklahoma, 1st Round) – 6’5″, 315 lbs. -more of a fringe 1st round guy, but good frame to put on weight in time.
• O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida, Early 2nd Round) – Torrence is right on the fringe of the 1st Round, but he is the highest rated interior lineman on the board after Skoronski. He should be versatile enough to play Guard or Center.
• Steve Avila (TCU, 2nd Round) – Again, based on need, maybe he can get up in the first round, but likely early 2nd Round at Guard.
• Cody Mauch (North Dakota State, 2nd Round) – A tough player on a team that was very competitive in Division 1AA. Can his skills translate in the NFL at Tackle? I think so.
• John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota, 2nd Round) – Solid player with good technique for his size, probably a Center at 6’4″, 301 lbs.
• Matthew Bergeron (Syracuse, 2nd Round) – 6’5″, 318 lbs. – a value at tackle in this draft.
• Joe Tippmann (Wisconsin, 2nd Round) – Yet another Badger interior lineman who will be on a team for 10 years – 6’6″, 313.

Defensive Line

Carter Lost Money This Off Season, but He’s Too Good to Pass Up

The next group has always been key, and this year will have a few players picked in the first round even if not in the Top 5.

• Jalen Carter (Georgia, Top 5) – Carter could have been the #1 Pick or at least the top non-QB in this draft, but off the field issues and a poor workout has dropped him below Anderson and others on the board. SEA is rumored to love this guy at #5, so I’ve listed him in the Top 5. Still, at 6’3″, 314 lbs and completely explosive, Carter could be the best player in this class.
• Bryan Bresee (Clemson, 1st Round)
• Calijah Kancey (Pitt, 1st Round)
• 2nd Round Guys
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern, 2nd Round)
  • Mazi Smith (Michigan, 2nd Round)
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (USC, 2nd Round)

Secondary

Witherspoon Is A Stud CB

The NFL is all about passing, so you need CBs and Ss to cover all those WRs running routes. This draft is light on Safeties though.

• Devon Witherspoon (Illinois, Top 10) – Witherspoon is a tough cover corner that helped Illini compete against Big Ten big boys. He is a little light, but has great recovery speed. He is the best CB in this draft, but others are taller than him.
• Christian Gonzalez (Oregon, Top 10) – Early on, he was the top guy, but Witherspoon is showing out in the process. Still, Gonzalez is a really quick athlete with some length at 6’1″, 197.
• Deonte Banks (Maryland, Top 20) – Another top CB who will be good in any system.
• Joey Porter, Jr. (Penn State, Top 20) – Porter could move up draft boards with his pedigree. He is long in the same vein as Richard Sherman, 6’3″, 193 lbs.
• Brian Branch (Alabama, 1st Round) – The only 1st Round graded Safety in this class. So, he may also fall in this draft. Not great size (6’0″, 190 lbs.), but good instincts and started 3 years for Nick Saban. He will be a good player.
• 2nd Round Guys
  • Cam Smith, South Carolina (CB)
  • Emmanuel Forbes, Miss State (CB)
  • Kelee Ringo, Georgia (CB)
  • Jakorian Bennett, Maryland (CB)
  • JL Skinner, Boise State (S)

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Ohio State Produces WRs

The Receivers are always going to be coveted, but the 2023 Draft is the year of the TE.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State, Top 20) – Buckeye QBs have not been great in the NFL, but WRs have dominated. Here is the next one at 6’1″, 196 lbs and lightning fast. Coaches said he was better than the Offensive ROY Garrett Wilson in college.
• Quentin Johnston (TCU, Top 20) – Big player who can high point the ball at 6’3″, 208 lbs. Not as fast as AJ Brown, but that’s his comp.
• Dalton Kincaid (Utah, Top 20) – A big TE target here at 6’4″, 246 lbs, but he can still run good routes.
• Michael Mayer (Notre Dame, 1st Round) – Good blocker and pass catcher at TE, 6’5″, 249 lbs.
• Zay Flowers (Boston College, 1st Round) – The Eagles were not super heralded, but this guy is as dynamic as they come – also a kick returner at 5’9″, 182 lbs.
• Jordan Addison (USC, 1st Round) – Addison does not have the size at 5’11”, 173 lbs, but speed kills.
• 2nd Round Guys
  • Josh Downs, UNC (WR)
  • Darnell Washington, Georgia (TE)
  • Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (WR)
  • Sam LaPorta, Iowa (TE) – Top target on a bad offense, but Iowa TEs dominate in the NFL – he’s the next one at 6’3″, 245 lbs.
  • Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (WR)
  • Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (TE)

Running Backs

Robinson Is Really Dynamic

An undervalued position in today’s NFL, but you can get immediate starters in any round (see Isaiah Pacheco).

• Bijan Robinson (Texas, Top 10) – Robinson is the lone RB that can go in the Top 10. He is dynamic and has the size to run between the tackles – 5’11”, 215 lbs.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama, Top 20) – Gibbs is dynamic with a build closer to an Austin Ekeler at 5’9″, 199 lbs, so he can still carry the load when needed.
• Other Guys – next rated guy is #79, so here are a few guys to watch late
  • Zach Charbonnet, UCLA – He could crack 2nd or 3rd round, but not sure that will happen. He can start immediately with his versatility.
  • Tyjae Spears, Tulane – Really dynamic player on a smaller school, which I like to see on the next level once they get better blocking.

Linebackers

Sanders May Creep Into the 1st Round

Last but not least, we have the inside linebackers. Still essential to stopping the run, and the elite guys can cover those TEs or deep zones.

• Drew Sanders (Arkansas, 1st Round) – Can run sideline to sideline at 6’4″, 235 lbs.
• Jack Campbell (Iowa, 2nd Round) – Great run stopper at 6’5″, 249 lbs.
• Daiyan Henley (Wash State, 2nd Round) – More of an effort guy than a beast.
• Trenton Simpson (Clemson, 2nd Round) – The last of this group for the Top 2 rounds, at 6’2″ and 235 lbs. will need improve in pass coverage.

Team Needs

AFC East

• Bills – BUF still has a good roster, but they lost Edmunds in FA plus Devin Singletary at RB. I would think those are 2 priority areas in later rounds. I think their CBs and another edge rusher will be their targets in the early rounds and maybe another WR in the slot.
• Dolphins – Big off season move was for CB, Jalen Ramsey, and they added depth at WR with Braxton Berrios. They did lose TE Mike Gesicki who was never a fit in this offense, so TE seems logical, but with no 1st Round pick that will have to be 2nd round or later.
• Jets – The Jets made their splash on Monday with the trading for Aaron Rodgers after a long dragged out period after his shut in. This puts the Jets in a “win now” mode with the young talent around Rodgers. The D was already solid, so I think they would focus on the Offense in this draft. WRs like Alan Lazard and Mecole Hardman have been added, but another dynamic player makes sense, as well as a better TE than Conklin.
• Patriots – The Pats already seem like a distant 4th in this division with the Rodgers’s trade and where BUF and MIA are. They rarely trade up, but they certainly need to make some good picks this year. Is Mac Jones the future? A QB is a definite possibility, and maybe another dynamic RB, as they have addressed TE with Gesicki. Knowing Bill Belichick he will get the best Offensive or Defensive Lineman and move on to scheming his team to some wins.

AFC North

• Bengals – CIN has all the skilled positions covered, but the O-Line didn’t show well in the playoffs, so more depth makes sense. They did lose CB, Eli Apple and S Jessie Bates in FA, but added some other players. I think given the draft class, CB is more likely than S.
• Ravens – BAL has done little to give its fans peace this off season with the Lamar Jackson saga. He is technically on the roster as a Franchise Player, but he can be poached as it is not the exclusive tag. There is still a chance he will be dealt on Draft night now that the Rodgers’ domino has fallen. Still, the Ravens could pick a QB if a guy like Hooker drops or even Levis, however WR is still a quagmire even with Odell Beckham and Agholor signed. The Ravens often defy the pundits and pick Defense anyway.
• Browns – CLE’s mortgage will start to come due with no 1st Round selection, but I think the strength of the team is on Offense. The D was terrible in 2022. The pass and run D were atrocious, so I think they go with stout D lineman who can rush the passer occasionally. They can find those guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
• Steelers – The Steelers need a better O Line. They have the skilled guys, now it is time to build upfront. I also think they can use some interior D lineman as Heyward is aging and surprisingly the PIT D gave up a lot of big plays so another back end DB, as Patrick Peterson was added, but he is also up there in years.

AFC South

• Jags – The Jags all of a sudden look like the team to beat in this division. WR Calvin Ridley joins the squad to go with the high performers from 2022, so the Offense looks good. Maybe an interior lineman to help protect Lawrence. For me, it is on the D and the interior line and the back end at CB for the 2023 Draft.
• Titans – The Titans will likely select a QB in the first round. Sure Tannehill has played ok, but the team seems to be shopping RB Derrick Henry, so a changing of the guard is imminent. Hendon Hooker is probably the ideal guy where they are selecting, as he can sit a year behind the vet and heal up to take the job in 2024. Also, plenty of room to upgrade at WR and TE. I think the D is pretty solid, plus they picked up some solid vets in FA.
• Colts – IND is hoping to get that elusive QB at #4. Given where they are in picking up Minshew to hold the water until either Richardson or Levis becomes game ready, that makes sense. The O line needs reinforcements, too. They were swiss cheese for Matt Ryan last year, and even with a more mobile body, they need to run the ball better with JT.
• Texans – I’m sure Texans fans are still mad at Lovie that they won in Week 18. They could have selected Bryce Young and been happy with that, so they will have to settle for CJ Stroud or Will Levis. He doesn’t have to rush with Mills under center, but the team needs something. With their 2nd selection, I fully expect them to get an impact player on D now that HC Demeco Ryans is in charge. So, it would not shock me if he went with Wilson at #2 and QB at #12. He knows what he needs to upgrade this unit from 2022.

AFC West

• Chiefs – What do the Champs need? They addressed OT in FA, but depth is always appreciated. Can they dip their toe in this deep TE draft to complement Kelce? Perhaps. I still think the D needs help. Not upfront, but back end, so I expect another CB or LB selected in the first couple of rounds.
• Chargers – Can the Chargers ever stop the run? Maybe a run stuffer would be wise. I also think the the WRs never stay on the field in Allen and Williams, so another guy there will happen.
• Broncos – Hard to argue with the D on DEN, so it will be a lot of Offense in 2023. Better O Line and a TE seem logical there. Let’s see if Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson (let’s ride! haha).
• Raiders – Well, that was a purge of this roster in just 15 months. Could they be in play for an Anthony Richardson at QB (he may not get past SEA)? Garappolo is a stop gap at best, but the issues on this team were more on D. So, I do expect a lot of picks thrown at every level of the D.

NFC East

• Eagles – The runners up had a lot of turnover in the off season, so plenty of holes to fill. The Derrick Henry smoke may be indicative of interest at RB (Robinson) for this Offense. Gainwell is a good player, but not an every down guy. On D, Fletcher Cox needs a back fill with a young stud, and they could address that need instead at #10 or at least in Round 2.
• Cowboys – DAL parted ways with Zeke so RB is in play behind Pollard. The D was really good, plus they added Gilmore at CB. So, I think it is Offense all the way, probably O Line first then RB or TE (which could be their 1st round pick).
• Giants – Did anyone do more with less than the Giants in 2022? They need more impact guys on Offense outside of Saquon. So, I think WR and TE are targets, then back end D players.
• Commanders – QBs Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett in this division? Please. They need a QB. I wouldn’t be surprised if they took Levis or Hooker in the 1st Round. Or they could tank for next year’s better class. Still, the D line which has so many 1st rounders needs to play better. Plus, the LB corps and back end needs to step up. Perhaps the top S from Bama would help “command” these guys.

NFC North

• Vikings – Stop me if you have heard this before, but the Vikings D is terrible. They have to address that side of the ball over and over again. The weapons and O Line are good to elite, but if Hooker falls this far that’s possible, too.
• Packers – The Jordan Love era begins in Green Bay, and I, for one, can’t wait. Maybe he will be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I think it will be a rough road. Plus, we can now see if LeFleur can actually coach. The skilled guys are young and decent, but in the end, what scheme will they employ? I think the glaring deficiency is on the D Line on this team – they were 26th against the run in 2022 with no FA signings of note. They also could go TE in the middle of the 1st Round.
• Lions – Speaking of bad run Ds, the Lions may have caught fire last year, but it was the Offense and not the D to thank. More impact defenders are in their future early at #6, but I do think they will also look to fill the TE vacancy left by Hockenson with the trade mid-season.
• Bears – Oh, the Bears, my squad, it’s Ryan Poles first draft with capital in his back pocket. He traded out of the #1 pick banking on Justin Fields who as good as he was late still didn’t pass the ball. The O Line was not good, and they gave away most of the D and even with Tremaine Edmunds and other new faces, they will need impact depth. At #9, they will likely go O Line unless Carter or someone falls unexpectedly. WRs should be ok though with DJ Moore, Mooney and Claypool.

NFC South

• Bucs – Life without TB12 begins in Tampa, and what will that look like – Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask – wow. Well, that go for it now attitude in 2020-2022 will come back to bite them in 2023. They need depth at nearly every position with this older roster, so not sure a QB makes a ton of sense unless Richardson falls or they can land Hooker that late.
• Saints – Suddenly, the Saints could be back on top with this awful division. QB Derek Carr seems like a good idea right now with solid players at most positions. If they get anything out of Michael Thomas this year, then they could be good on O. The D has been the hallmark for about 5 years, but I think they can use an Edge Rusher as Jordan is aging.
• Panthers – The #1 Pick should be Bryce Young to usher in a new era in CAR, which given this division may pay off immediately. I think a good WR with the vets they signed this off season, and this team should contend for the division (as they did last year).
• Falcons – ATL probably won too many games last year because at #8, I’m not sure they can grab a top QB. So, they will continue to roll with Ridder, unless they want to get a falling Stroud, Levis or Hooker. The style of play last year running the rock worked in most games, and the D was solid. They did sign vets like Campbell and Dupree, but more impact players on D would help for sure.

NFC West

• 49ers – The 49ers think they have found their guy in Brock Purdy, but I’m going to say this all season, I think that is fools’ gold. Nevertheless, SF was one game away from the Super Bowl for the 2nd year in a row. The D is elite returning most and picking up Hargrave from PHI. With no pick in the 1st round, I would expect some depth on the O Line and interior D Line.
• Seahawks – SEA is a prime candidate for an upside QB like Richardson. Smith was signed for a couple more years, as he had a great year. The team is young, especially on D. So, if SEA can develop him for a year (or two), then he can take the keys to a full functional squad. Maybe some help at LB as Wagner returns in his swan song. Last year the draft really put this team back into contention, but a lot of rumors that they will take Jalen Carter at #5.
• Cardinals – With Murray locked in, no QB here, which may be to the Cardinals detriment. However, it may work out for them, as their needs on D are great. They should be able to get the top pass rusher in the Draft at #3. They will go to the well early and often for D, but with Hopkins on the trading block, I expect another WR to be picked, as well.
• Rams – Can the Rams bounce back? McVay is back for real, so perhaps they will be committed. They are feeling the pain of selling out for their SB. Still, what do they really need? The answer is outside of WR, RB and Aaron Donald – everything. They will have to be good at later round picks with no 1st round selection.

So, turn on NFL Network or ESPN and get into this Draft. Hopes will be lifted. Beers will be consumed, and then we are still 4 months away until the preseason.

Wegs