For this weekend, that iconic, if overplayed 80s anthem by Europe comes to mind – The Final Countdown – the synthesizer, the hair, the high notes. This is where College Basketball reaches its Final Four Countdown in Houston.

Look at the flowing hair in this Final Countdown video!

Final Four Preview

We have 3 newbies in Houston, which makes the fan bases excited, but blueblood fans possibly disinterested. Thank god we have gambling.

  • 9 FAU vs. 5 San Diego State (-2.5, 132) – Saturday, 4/1 – 5:09 PM Central on CBS
    • The Teams
      • The FAU Owls (35-3) has been on a run. This team out of Conference USA was good all year with now 35 wins on the season. Plus, the depth of the league has been on display this post-season with North Texas beating UAB in the NIT Final on Thursday and Charlotte winning the CBI. So, maybe the “mid-major” conference prepared them for the Big Dance. They are up to 17 in KenPom with metrics at 24 on Offense and 30 on Defense – very balanced. They have a 7 footer and 4 guards. I think the biggest thing I have seen is that they have been clutch down the stretch in close games. Coach Dusty May has his team laser focused.
      • San Diego State Aztecs (31-6) – The Aztecs have also been on fire winning 14 of 15 games. Their D, especially against the 3 point shot has been historically strong. They are 14 in KenPom – 4th on D, but 75th on Offense. Coach Brian Dutcher finally has broken this team into the last weekend. This is where they are vulnerable, but they have been able to beat much better offensive teams in this tournament in Alabama and Creighton.
    • Prediction: Everyone knows it has been a rough ride in predicting this tournament, but I think the balance of the Owls will win out in this one. It should be a great game, no doubt, however if it comes down to late game heroics, I trust FAU’s guards more than SDSU. I would take the +2.5 and even go ML +110 with FAU. I would play the first half Total Under 59.5.
  • 5 Miami vs. 4 UConn (-5.5, 149 Total) – Saturday, 4/1 – 7:49 PM Central on CBS
    • The Teams
      • The Miami Hurricanes (29-7) are not a “surprise” team. They won the regular season ACC Title, they went to the Elite 8 last year with a lot of the same team, and they have a coach in Jim Larranaga who has been to the Final Four. Yet, they have come back in most of their games to win. They are 22 in KenPom mostly on their 5th Ranked Offense where there Defense is 109th. Still, their pace has allowed them to keep putting pressure on better defensive teams in Houston and Texas to get here. Plus, it can be argued that they have the best guards of the remaining teams.
      • UConn Huskies (29-8) are the current favorite to win the National Title. Now, that is not a moniker anyone wants in this tournament. However, besides a slow opening half against Iona, the Huskies have crushed their opponents regardless of style. UConn is now 1 in KenPom with metrics on O at 3 and D at 11. That makes them nearly better on both ends of the floor than any of the teams left (except SDSU on D). Their 9 man rotation has been productive and allows them to run with fast teams and enough fouls in slugfests. They do look primed for the title, but Coach Hurley has never had this type of tournament success before.
    • Prediction: Coach Larranaga will have something for UConn, but I think the Huskies are playing too well to be beat by such a poor defensive team. I do think this is the default National Title Game, so all eyes will be on this one. I have to lay the -5.5 with UConn full game and maybe even lay a little more for better odds, as they have destroyed opponents. I will take the first half line MIA +3 (-120). This total though is likely an Over 149. I’ll stay away from the total and look at it in game.

Championship Preview – Monday, April 3 at 8:20 PM Central on CBS

Pure speculation at this point, but if an FAU-UConn final happens, I’ll ride with UConn again (-5 or so). FAU may play well for a half, so I may do the +3 in the first half again. However the depth and skill of UConn will eventually overwhelm this true Cinderella run by the Owls.

UConn Huskies win the title.

Enjoy the final weekend of College Hoops, and then I’ll turn to other topics for a while before the NFL Draft and Fantasy Season.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.