College Hoops: Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Preview

The opening of the NCAA Tournament is wild for all of us. However, would you believe that despite some of the biggest upsets of all time, we had less than most years.

Opening Weekend Tallies

I wrote more detailed overviews of the first 2 rounds in the Pool update, but here are some interesting stats after Round 2.

• 11 Different Conferences are represented in the Sweet 16
• Only 7 Seed Upsets took place in Round 1, which is low compared to recent years: 9 in 2022, 10 in 2021, 12 in 2019 and 9 in 2018
• Through 2 Rounds – 12 Seed Upsets took place, again lower than past years: 15 in 2022, 14 in 2021, 13 in 2019 and 15 in 2018
• A #15 Seed has now reached the Sweet 16 in 3 consecutive years (Oral Roberts in 2021, St. Peter’s in 2022)
• Gonzaga has now reached 8 consecutive Sweet 16s

With all that said, this is the weekend that the cream rises to the top.

Sweet Sixteen – Elite Eight Preview

East Region – NYC – Madison Square Garden (Thursday and Saturday)

7 Michigan State vs. 3 Kansas State (+2, 137.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/23 at 5:30 PM Central (TBS) – Coach Izzo has done it yet again. He gets back to the Sweet 16 with the only remaining Big Ten team. He will face off against a very talented and now battle tested group of Wildcats led by Markquis Nowell who did whatever he wanted to against Kentucky. This should be a high scoring game, as both teams can put the ball in the hole. I think the wrong team is favored here, as I’m the first to admit I was wrong about K State. They impressed me in their two wins this past weekend. I think this should be a great game, but K State should march on.

9 Florida Atlantic vs. 4 Tennessee (-5, 131.5 Total), Thursday, 3/23 at 8 PM Central (TBS) – I was wrong on the team here, but the handicap was correct even if not the way we thought it would go. The FAU Owls get to their first ever Sweet 16, and they have a good squad. The issue is that TEN once ranked #1 is playing like it through 2 games. They completely dominated Duke physically, which they can do again against a talented, but undersized Owl team. I still don’t trust Coach Rick Barnes in a big spot like this, but Defense should travel here to get them to Saturday. I would take the +5 and the Owls though, and Under 131.5.

That would set up a K State versus Tennessee match-up. Not exactly what they had hoped for in MSG on Saturday night, and of course, a Sparty appearance would be a crowd pleaser. Still in the Wildcats vs. Vols match up, I think the K State offense is just better than the Vols enough to get to Houston.

West Region – Las Vegas – T-Mobile Arena (Thursday and Saturday)

8 Arkansas vs. 4 UConn (-3.5, 139.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/23 at 6:15 PM Central (CBS) – The Huskies found their stride over the weekend and played really well. Adama Sanogo has been the man in 2 games. Now, he will face off against one of the most athletic groups in the tournament in the Razorbacks. Plus, everyone knows my bias for Coach Musselman in March, so I think UConn will win this one, but I’ll take the points with Arkansas. The Hogs do tend to lack scoring late in games except at the foul line, so maybe it will be easier than we think for UConn. Still, I like Under the 139.5 in a very physical match up.

3 Zags vs. 2 UCLA (-2, 145 Total) Thursday, 3/23 at 8:45 PM Central (CBS) – This will be a classic. The battle for West Coast supremacy. Drew Timme and the Zags were able to overcome a tough TCU team on Sunday night, but this Bruins team is even better. Yes, they have lost one of their best players, but I still think the experience and pace of this game will favor the Bruins. I appreciate the Zags’ love here, I really do, and if they advance, good for them. I just think that Coach Mick Cronin will have something for this Zags team on Thursday Night. Bruins Cover -2 and game will fall Under 145.

Hopefully, as predicted in my bracket, we get the UConn vs. UCLA match-up, but really any combination would be fun basketball. Many experts believe that the title winner is coming out of this region, and it is hard to argue with that. I think if UConn advances past Arkansas then the hype train will be on them, but I don’t buy them 100%. UCLA will grind them down and win a tight one. If the Zags do advance, then I give them the advantage over both Arkansas or UConn.

South Region – Louisville – KFC Yum! Center (Friday and Sunday)

5 San Diego State vs. 1 Alabama (-7.5, 136.5 Total) – Friday, 3/24 at 5:30 PM Central (TBS) – The #1 Overall seed, Alabama, has looked great so far. Their athleticism and pace are hard for most teams to match. In this one, the Aztecs will need to clamp down on the Tide’s transition game, which they excel at. However, I think the key to the game is can San Diego State hold Bama to one shot or not? If they can, then you’ll have to like them to stay within the number (+7.5). I still can’t see them winning this game though. I also think if the Aztecs are competitive, then the game will stay Under 136.5.

15 Princeton vs. 6 Creighton (-9.5, 140 Total) – Friday, 3/24 at 8 PM Central (TBS) – The Tigers have been really good, and not just on D but scoring at a good clip. Creighton is a tough team at full strength. I can’t in good faith recommend the side here, as I don’t think Princeton will be competitive. However, the last 2 #15 Seeds to make it this far also got to the Elite 8. So, I’m going to go Over the 140 in this one. Creighton should win here, but I’m staying away from the side all together.

With an Alabama vs. Creighton match up looming here, get your popcorn ready for one of the highest scoring games of the tournament. Alabama should emerge victorious, but the Blue Jays have one of their best teams in the metrics ever.

Midwest Region – Kansas City – T-Mobile Center (Friday and Sunday)

5 Miami vs. 1 Houston (-7, 138 Total) -Friday, 3/24 at 6:15 PM Central (CBS) – The Canes played well down the stretch to earn the Sweet Sixteen bid, and this team under Jim Larranaga believes they can do it. The Cougars will be a tough task as there are not teams this physical in the ACC. If Marcus Sasser gets back to near 100%, then I don’t think this game will be all that close. I could be wrong on that, as F Omier has been good in his return. I think Houston will be too much, so I would lay the -7 here, but one thing I’ve noticed is betting against HOU in the first half is profitable so you can wait until the 2nd half for a better number, if you’d like. The Total will be Under yet again.

3 Xavier vs. 2 Texas (-4, 148.5 Total) – Friday, 3/24 at 8:45 PM Central (CBS) – Another gem of a game in the final window. The Musketeers have enough varied scoring to challenge that Texas D, however I do think the length that Texas has at all positions will be a problem over the course of the game. The line seems appropriate given these two teams. However, I’d lay the -4 with the Longhorns, as they should advance to Sunday. The Total will go Under 148.5.

With a potential Battle for Texas as I predicted on the horizon, I think CBS will be frothing at the mouth. That game should give us more athleticism and toughness than we have seen all year. I still side with Houston in that match up, but Texas is playing at new levels each week.

There you have it. Sweet Sixteen and Elite 8 moves this tournament to its final chapter. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Wegs