We finally made it to Selection Sunday, and for the most part, there were not a ton of surprises. Still, there were a few gripes, and I think more importantly some poor seeding that we can exploit in our bracket picks and bets.

For this article, I’m going to structure it this way: Region by Region analysis – Top 4 Seeds, Potential Cinderellas and Upset Candidates; Final Four Prediction and Champ. However, the goal right now is to get a feel for the bracket, identify teams to go far, and really avoid major calamity to have as many teams as possible into the 2nd weekend.

South Region

The South features the Top Overall Seed in Alabama who unlike most of the other top seeds actually won their conference tournament.

Top Seeds

Oates and Miller Have Weathered The Storm
  1. Alabama (29-5, SEC Champ, 3 KP) – The Crimson Tide seemed to overcome the Brandon Miller drama, which may actually have galvanized this team in the SEC tournament. They are extremely talented on both ends with an elite player. That makes them the top overall seed.
  2. Arizona (28-6, PAC 12 Tourney Champ, 10 KP) – The Wildcats were able to take out the injured Bruins in the PAC 12 Tourney. They are almost as talented as Bama, but they seem to not play to their potential a lot. Great scorers, but not as great on D – 41st per KP.
  3. Baylor (22-10, Big 12 At Large, 15 KP) – The Bears can be lethal behind the arc with tremendous guards, but that interior D will struggle against better teams – 104th per KP on D.
  4. Virginia (25-7, ACC At Large, 34 KP) – The Wahoos were good early on, but they flailed down the stretch. They were able to make it to the ACC Title game, but they are one of the Over-Seeded teams to line up against.

Potential Cinderellas

  • 6 Creighton (21-12, Big East At Large, 13 KP) – The Blue Jays got smoked in their semi-final in the Big East Tourney, but their metrics are really good at 28th on O and 15th on D. I have them as a 4 Seed. So, they can be a potential 2nd weekend team, if they get past 11 NC State to take on 3 Baylor.
  • 10 Utah State (26-8, Mountain West At Large, 18 KP) – The Aggies were very close to winning the MW Tourney and they have been climbing the metrics for weeks. 13th on O and 64th on D makes them great on O and solid on D to make some noise, despite the poor conference record in the tourney in recent years. I don’t think they can beat Arizona, but I’d take the points in the match up, and they are already favored against Missouri (-1.5).
  • 12 College of Charleston (31-3, CAA Champ, 73 KP) – The Cougars are a good team on a 10 game win streak. Their metrics aren’t outstanding, but they play both ends. They can beat San Diego State, if they can score against that D and same against 4 Virginia or 13 Furman. They are a good Sweet 16 candidate for the strong stomached.

Upset Candidates

  • 4 Virginia – See above on them generally, but UVA should have been a 6 or 7 Seed not a 4. Their Offense is not good at 74, but that D isn’t that great like other years at 25. They should have dominated the ACC, but did not. 13 Furman is game for an upset – the Paladins lost on a last minute shot in the conference tourney in 2022, so they will make the most of this appearance. Plus, 33rd on O will help them. The odds show this as the Paladins are only +188 on the Moneyline.
  • 5 San Diego State – Look, I want the Aztecs to win. They did win the MWC conference tourney and regular season crown, however, despite great metics they have under-performed in the Big Dance many times. As I mentioned, Charleston will give them a game, so take those points (+5).
  • 3 Baylor in Round of 32 – 6 Creighton can keep up on Offense, and their D is much better than the hot and cold Bears. Baylor was a trendy pick to take the Big 12, and I think they can be had.

1 Alabama is going to win this Region. Sure, there are some land mines, but unless 8 West Virginia plays great or Arizona or Creighton step up, I don’t really see much resistance for them to get to Houston.

East Region

Mt. Edey Needs to Continue His Dominance

The East is the strangest region. I feel like they have the weakest 2-4 Seeds, but the best middle seeds – 5-9, which makes for a potential Cinderella to the Elite Eight or Final Four.

  1. Purdue (29-5, Big Ten Champ, 7 KP) – The Boilers took care of business in Chicago this weekend. Sunday got close late, but they were the best team. Now, can they translate that into a Final Four run? Those guards get pressured easily, so that could be an issue, but the other top seeds are not that fearsome.
  2. Marquette (28-6, Big East Champ, 12 KP) – The Eagles won both the regular season and tourney in the Big East. They looked very impressive in the semis and finals, so that earned them a 2 Seed – a little high for my liking, but I understand it. 47th on D is the concern here. So, if they can outscore teams, great, but they can’t do that all the way to Houston.
  3. Kansas State (23-9, Big 12 At Large, 24 KP) – The Wildcats were a darling early in the Big 12 season, but the bloom fell off the rose a bit lately. I’m not sold on them, to be honest.
  4. Tennessee (23-10, SEC At Large, 5 KP) – The total conundrum, TEN is great in KP 5 overall and 2 on D, but only 49th on O. All season this team rarely won on the road (4-6) and faltered early in the SEC tourney. So, I think they are seeded appropriately, but Rick Barnes’ teams usually don’t do well in March.

Potential Cinderellas

  • 8 Memphis (26-8, American Athletic Conference Champ, 19 KP) – Memphis closed the season really strong including beating HOU in the AAC tourney final without Sasser. A balanced team with two top scorers, Kendric Davis (22.1 PPG), Deandre Williams (17.8 PPG), plus a solid D. They will be a tough out and I think Under-Seeded (they should be a 5 Seed), except for……
  • 9 Florida Atlantic (31-3, CUSA Champ, 26 KP) – The Selection Committee screwed up. FAU has been in the Top 25 most of the year, they won their regular season and post-season titles, and they have great metrics. Why are they a 9 Seed?!? Plus, they have to play Memphis who is also Under-Seeded. I hate that one of these teams should lose in the opening round. It’s BS. So, flip a coin (Memphis -2) and watch a great game. Incidentally, I think either of these teams can beat Purdue on the right day. So, if you have the stones, pick the right team and have them beat PUR.
  • 12 Oral Roberts (30-4, Summit Champ, 56 KP) – The Golden Eagles are a really good team and fun to watch. They are 23rd in O, but 107 on D. Still, they do have a 7 footer, so it’s not all 3 point bombs. G Max Abmas (22.2 PPG) returns to the tournament where he was great in 2021. I love them, but hate the draw yet again. They have to face off against Duke, which really sucks. However, if they can beat the Dukies (-6), they can simply outscore TEN to make the Sweet 16.

Potential Upsets

  • 3 Kansas State – I’ll say it again, they did not perform down the stretch. Before a 4 game win streak in February, they had lost 5 of 7 and finished with 2 losses to TCU and WVU. 14 Montana State is not great (110 KP), but they did make the dance in 2022. I think the first half spread (+4) and full game spread (+8.5) are in play here.
  • 1 Purdue – Round of 32 – 8 Memphis/9 FAU Winner will give C Zach Edey and Purdue all they can handle, see the notes above. The inexperienced guards will need to play better in that game to advance.

5 Duke – I’ve waffled on this region a bit. I think Purdue is set up to advance deep here, but I’ve seen them implode against pressure D. Duke is 17-1 with their full starting 5, and that one loss was the questionable non-foul against UVA. C Kyle Filipowski is very good and will give Edey fits, plus I think if Duke can beat Oral Roberts, then they will take care of TEN easily. I don’t trust 2 Marquette or 3 K State. I’d even given 6 Kentucky a shot to get to the Elite 8. If I’m wrong, great I’ll be happy for the Boilers.

Midwest Region

Cougars Can Get Back to Houston for Final Four

The winner of this region will have to earn it, for sure. It is a deep region, but I rate it the 2nd toughest.

Top Seeds

  1. Houston (31-3, AAC Regular Season Champ, 1 KP) – The injury to G Marcus Sasser not only cost the Cougars the AAC Tourney, but the 1 Overall Seed. Great metrics – 11th on O and 4th on D. Now, HOU will have to contend with in my view the toughest 2 Seed to get back home for the Final Four. I love the team, but we will see if the Strength of Schedule (92nd per KP) will cost them.
  2. Texas (26-8, Big 12 Tourney Champ, 6 KP) – The Longhorns flexed in the Big 12 Title Game and the regular season finale by beating Kansas. The team has rallied around the Interim Coach, Rodney Terry, and they are tall and athletic. They are a force to be reckoned with. Like HOU, they are in the Top 20 on both O (18) and D (11).
  3. Xavier (25-9, Big East At Large, 16 KP) – I like the Musketeers who are resurging under HC Sean Miller. However, I don’t think they are physical enough for TEX or HOU. Still they should fair well the opening weekend.
  4. Indiana (22-11, Big Ten At Large, 30 KP) – The Hoosiers are that team that looked like a Final Four team when beating PUR twice, but then lost against lesser opponents all season long. I was on their bandwagon earlier, but I can’t do it. F Trayce Jackson-Davis will need to be elite.

Potential Cinderellas

  • 10 Penn State (22-13, Big Ten At Large, 39 KP) – The Nittany Lions were on a roll and nearly came back against PUR in the Big Ten Title Game. They have good 3 point shooting, but not a lot of size. So, they are a match up play. Their game with 7 Texas A&M (-2.5) will be interesting, and I don’t think they can hang with TEX, but who knows. They have won 8 of their last 10 games.
  • 12 Drake (27-7, MVC Champ, 66 KP) – Some love the Drake, some hate the Drake, but Miami, who admittedly I like, in general, is going to have an issue with the Bulldogs. Drake is on a roll, so the Canes will need to play at their best, the line tells the story (Canes -2.5). So, there is already money on the Dogs here.
  • 13 Kent State (28-6, MAC Champ, 71 KP) – The Golden Flashes can play D (38th), which if they can make Indiana play slow, then they will have a legit chance to beat them, which could set up a mid-major battle with Drake in the Round of 32. I give them a lot of credit for playing a very tough non-conference schedule, as they have only lost 3 games since December 5th at Gonzaga.

Potential Upsets

  • 4 Indiana – See above on Kent State (-4), but even if they beat them, Drake or Miami will likely knock off the Hoosiers unless they get more consistent.
  • 5 Miami – The Canes won the ACC Regular Season title, but faltered against Duke. I like their guards, but they just don’t play enough D for me. Drake will be a real challenge as noted.

1 Houston will win this region assuming Marcus Sasser is able to play in the Round of 32 and onwards. I do think the Texas-Houston game in the Battle for Texas will be the best Elite 8 game on the card. Texas can easily win here, but either way it is a 2 horse race to me in this region.

West Region

Self’s Health May Be Key to Jayhawks’ Run

The West is by far the toughest region to get to Houston. I had heard Kansas was the “#1 Overall Seed” heading into the weekend, but with the resounding loss to Texas, that changed dramatically.

Top Seeds

  1. Kansas (27-7, Big 12 Regular Season Champs, 9 KP) – The defending champ battled through the rugged Big 12, but got beat soundly by Texas in both the regular season finale and the tourney title game. HC Bill Self’s health is a big concern. They did not play the same with him not pushing them on the sidelines. So, I expect his return, but they need to dig deep in this gauntlet of a region.
  2. UCLA (29-5, PAC 12 Regular Season Champ, 2 KP) – The Bruins lost a nail biter against Arizona on Saturday night without their defensive anchor, Adem Bona, who missed the game, and Jaylen Clark who missed the tournament. They need Bona back and healthy to reach Houston. Still, their deliberate play and Coach Mick Cronin’s savvy will be very tough to beat.
  3. Zags (28-5, WCC Champ, 8 KP) – Again, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this bracket is loaded. The Zags may not be as heralded as 2022 or previous seasons, but this team is #1 on Offense. They have been completely balling since everyone thought St. Mary’s was the class of the WCC. I like them as a “dark horse,” and wish they were in the East Region. Still, they will be playing in the Sweet Sixteen, just don’t know if they can beat UCLA.
  4. UConn (25-8, Big East At Large, 4 KP) – Yeah, that’s right, UConn is the best of the 4 teams in KenPom with 6 on O and 18 on D. They have failed me in key spots betting this year, so I don’t trust them as much, but can they win this Region? – Hell yes they can. Seeing them in the Sweet Sixteen isn’t a lock, but they are good.

Potential Cinderellas

  • 8 Arkansas (20-13, SEC At Large, 20 KP) – I say this every year now. I love Coach Musselman (and his wife, but that’s not on topic). He can flat out coach. To me, he is the younger version of Tom Izzo with play hard teams that play better in March. This team does lack half court offense (51 in KP), but they will defend and rebound. They will give Kansas trouble in the Round of 32 and could beat a 4 UConn or 5 St. Mary’s if they get that far.
  • 10 Boise State (24-9, MWC At Large, 31 KP) – Boise has a salty D at 14th in KP, and they have played well against lower scoring teams like 7 Northwestern. UCLA would not be a fun match up, but it’s not like the Bruins score at will either.
  • 12 VCU (27-7, A10 Champ, 58 KP) – This team is peaking right now (9 game win streak), currently 17 on D in KP, which is ripe for upsets. St. Mary’s is a good team, but I think they peaked early. Again, UConn would await likely, but that D can be tricky to handle.

Potential Upsets

  • 4 St. Mary’s – The Gaels had a great season, and maybe they can beat everyone but the Zags. I just left with a lot less confidence in them. VCU is going to be ready for them (+138 ML).
  • 4 UConn – Yes, I spoke highly of UConn, but they have lost a lot of games that they were favored in. Plus, Coach Danny Hurley hasn’t been great in the Big Dance. It would be fitting in his final season at 13 Iona that HC Rick Pitino teaches Hurley a lesson before going to St. Johns (Iona +9).
  • 1 Kansas in Round of 32 versus 8 Arkansas – the Hogs need to beat Illinois first, of course, which is no gimme. Still, Kansas struggled against Texas who is athletic, I expect the same versus Musselman’s team.

2 UCLA – its a wide open region which could mean carnage, but one of the Top 4 will go to Houston. I think coaching and match ups favor the Bruins, as they know how to neutralize high powered offenses like the Zags or even Kansas if the Jayhawks can get past Arkansas and UConn.

Final Four and Champ

Final Four Match Ups

1 Alabama vs. 5 Duke – Great match up here, as the athletic Crimson Tide take on the fundamentally sound Blue Devils. It would be both coaches first Final Four in Nate Oates and Jon Scheyer, but Oates did have a team in the Sweet Sixteen before. I do not think coaching will matter there, as the Tide should roll on with just a little too much length and skill for the Blue Devils.

1 Houston vs. 2 UCLA – Now, this is the game right here. Grab your lunch pail and buckle your chin strap. Both teams play really hard nosed defense, which is a hallmark of both programs and coaches. Both teams have been to the Final Four, so there are players and coaches with experience here. I do think health of both squads will matter a lot here. However, at this stage, I’m going to assume full health and go with Houston. Plus, the game is in Houston, which has to give them some advantage. Cougars win.

Championship Game

1 Alabama vs. 1 Houston – We can only hope that these two will be the ones fighting for the title. No Cinderellas or feel good stories, just 2 great basketball teams. Bama has more athleticism than Houston, which is saying a lot, plus the best player on the floor is Brandon Miller, but the Cougars have both experience and better guards. So, I like HOU to cut down the nets here – G Marcus Sasser will play great alongside Jamal Shead, as the Cougs will muddy the waters for the Tide completing Coach Sampson’s full redemption from NCAA Hoops Purgatory.

There you have it. I’m sure once I re-read this next week I will need to redo the entire bracket, as this could be the wildest Big Dance ever. Grab a beverage and enjoy it!

Let the Madness Begin

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.