I wrote last week that it goes quickly. We already have some tickets punched to the Big Dance, and Selection Sunday is just a few days away. Time to catch up.

Tickets Punched

As of the date of this article (3/7 late night), the following 11 teams have automatically qualified into the Field of 68:

Kennesaw State Punches Their First Ever Big Dance Ticket
  • SE Missouri State – Ohio Valley Champ – This squad defied the odds to knock off higher seeds in the OVC. Now, they look like a First Four team in Dayton – definitely a 16 Seed.
  • UNC Asheville – Big South Champ – The Bulldogs needed a comeback against the Camels to advance to the Field of 68 projected as a 15 Seed.
  • Drake – Missouri Valley Champ – The Bulldogs are a solid team. They will be a trendy 12 Seed to knock off a 5 Seed.
  • Kennesaw State – Atlantic Sun Champ – The Owls punch their first ever ticket to the Big Dance. They played well to knock off a seasoned Liberty team, and are showing up as a 14 Seed. Liberty now will sit on the Bubble watching the Big 6 Tournaments hoping for chalk, so they can maybe squeak in to the Field.
  • Louisiana (Lafayette) – Sun Belt Champs – The Ragin Cajuns get it done in a conference that has won games in the tourney. A 14 Seed currently, they have now won 5 straight.
  • Furman – SoCon Champ – The Paladins were looking great in the big win Monday night. I think they can be a dangerous 14 Seed.
  • Fairleigh Dickinson – Northeast Berth – Well, unfortunately for Merrimack despite the regular season title and NEC Tourney win, the game tonight didn’t matter for the Big Dance berth. They couldn’t qualify for the Field of 68 this year in their transition from Division II, so Fairleigh Dickinson will go back to the First Four likely.
  • College of Charleston – Colonial Champ – The Cougars get the job done and secure their bid to the Dance. I thought they may get consideration anyway, but give them credit for not leaving it up to the Committee. They look to be a 12 Seed.
  • Northern Kentucky – Horizon Champ – The Norse have been to the Dance before. However, they will likely be a 15 or 16 Seed.
  • Oral Roberts – Summit Champ – This team is really good. They are 30-4 with those losses to Houston, St. Mary’s, Utah State and New Mexico all on the road. They haven’t lost a game since January 9th. They will be an 11 or 12 Seed that should be considered for a deep run.
  • Gonzaga – WCC Champ – The Zags may not be considered for a 1 Seed like a lot of years, but they should be a 3 Seed. Most teams can’t stop that Offense, ask St. Mary’s.

Conference Championship Week Continues

Smaller Conference Finals That Are Set

  • Southland Final – Set with Northwestern State vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi – Wednesday, 3/8 at 4 PM Central – that’s early for the 2 top Seeds in the conference to battle.
  • Patriot League Final – Set with heavily favored Colgate (at home) versus Lafayette – maybe dreams can come true for a sub .500 team – Wednesday, 3/8 at 6:30 PM Central
  • Big Sky Final – Set with Northern Arizona (12-22) vs. Montana State – Wednesday, 3/8 at 10:30 PM Central – The Lumberjacks are slaying giants, but can Bobcats stop them after playing 2 OTs?
  • American East Final – Set with UMass Lowell vs. Vermont – Saturday, 3/11 at 10 AM Central

The remaining tournaments will all play finals on Saturday or Sunday.

Mid-Level Conference Action

You May Want to Watch HOU Before Picking Your Bracket
  • AAC – Houston is still rolling, even with the buzzer beater at Memphis. I hope we get that game one more time on Sunday in the final.
  • C-USA – Florida Atlantic should make the Big Dance regardless of winning this tourney, but maybe if they don’t there will be a bid stealer. I’m looking at North Texas here – 4-1 in neutral games and 9-3 on the road.
  • Mountain West – A conference full of Bubble Teams outside of San Diego State who is a lock. Boise State (2 Seed), Utah State (3 Seed) and Nevada (4 Seed) won’t all make the Big Dance. I think 3 will get in, so this is almost a pre-qualifier.

Big Conference Previews

ACC

Duke Is Ballin’
  • Favorites:
    • Miami (1 Seed) – It comes down to if they will defend Duke in the Semis or not.
    • Virginia (2 Seed) – Their metrics have been tanking, so I’m fading them. However, they have what it takes to win this and avoid MIA and Duke until the finals.
    • Duke (4 Seed, but Odds Favorite) – The Blue Devils have been playing great down the stretch. They have a legit big man in Filipowski and veteran guards. They are a balanced squad.
  • Dark Horses:
    • NC State (6 Seed) – Great guards and athleticism. They get to avoid MIA and Duke, so I like them a lot.
    • UNC (7 Seed) – They have one more shot to secure a bid, and they were the Pre-Season #1.
  • Bubble Teams:
    • Pitt (5 Seed) – It doesn’t seem fair, but even though they finished 2nd in the ACC, they need to win versus GA Tech and probably upset Duke to get in the Dance.
    • UNC (7 Seed) – Needs to get to the Title Game and maybe win it. They are 1-9 in Quad 1 games. However, they have the talent to win this tournament. It comes down to the guards – Caleb Love and RJ Davis
    • Clemson (3 Seed) – They may be the 3 Seed in the ACC, but their 61 Net Ranking puts them on the outside looking in.
  • Prediction: Duke wins this tournament over NC State.

Big East

Shaka Has A Squad at Marquette
  • Favorites:
    • Marquette (1 Seed) – Coach Shaka Smart has a really good team this year.
    • Xavier (2 Seed) – Coach Sean Miller has done well to resurrect the program, but they just don’t defend.
    • Creighton (3 Seed) – A lot of people like this team as a dark horse for the Big Dance, but not me.
    • UConn (4 Seed, but Odds Favorite) – Coach Danny Hurley has a very good team. It’s time to play that way.
  • Dark Horses:
    • Nova (6 Seed) – A lot of people are high on them with returning players from injury, but I don’t trust them.
    • Providence (5 Seed) – Coach Cooley is great, and his team has great guards, but that D stinks.
  • Bubble Teams: No true Bubble Teams here. Providence has faltered down the stretch, but they still should be in the Field. It’s 5 bids from the Big East this year.
  • Prediction: UConn re-establishes itself in this tournament over Creighton.

Big 12

Self Has A Team That Believes
  • Favorites:
    • Kansas (1 Seed) – They survived the best conference in the land for a reason.
    • Texas (2 Seed) – The length and athleticism is incredible.
  • Dark Horses:
    • West Virginia (8 Seed) – They have beaten the best in the conference, so why not do it one more time.
    • Oklahoma (10 Seed) – A total long shot, but they have played with all these Big 12 teams and beaten Alabama this year.
  • Bubble Teams:
    • OK State (7 Seed) – Huge game versus Oklahoma on Wednesday. If they lose, they are out for sure, but they may need to get another win over Texas to get in the field again.
    • West Virginia (8 Seed) – As much as I love Coach Huggins, his team has 13 losses and only 7 conference wins. They need to beat Texas Tech on Wednesday to insure their spot.
  • Prediction: Kansas will win the tournament yet again. It should be a fun tournament, but I see KU beating anyone, but I’ll say TCU in the final.

PAC 12

When Robin Becomes Batman – See Jaime Jaquez At UCLA
  • Favorites:
    • UCLA (1 Seed) – Coach Cronin has his squad dialed in on this 10 game win streak.
    • Arizona (2 Seed) – One word – TALENT.
  • Dark Horses:
    • Oregon (4 Seed) – Underperformed all year, but they have one shot to make the Dance – winning this tourney.
    • Washington State (5 Seed) – A betting darling for this title +1500. I have to admit, I put a little chedda on that, too.
  • Bubble Teams:
    • Arizona State (5 Seed) – I think they need to beat Oregon State and USC to get in the field. Otherwise, Coach Bobby Hurley will be watching his brother coach next week.
  • Prediction: UCLA is on a mission for the 1 Seed, and they have the best team. I think they beat Arizona again on Saturday night.

SEC

Kentucky Is Finally Playing to Potential
  • Favorites:
    • Alabama (1 Seed) – They have the horses to win the Big Dance for sure.
    • Texas A&M (2 Seed) – This try-hard bunch has been very good in the SEC regular season. Just concerned they play to their talent level in the post-season.
    • Kentucky (3 Seed) – Quietly has won 5 of 6. I like the way they are playing now.
  • Dark Horses:
    • Tennessee (5 Seed) – Not really a dark horse, in that they were ranked #1 at one point this year. If they can actually score the ball, then watch out.
    • Arkansas (10 Seed) – I can’t quit Eric Musselman’s squad yet, even if they can’t score in the half court.
  • Bubble Teams:
    • Mississippi State (9 Seed) – They may have enough to get in, but a win over Florida should cement their position.
    • Vanderbilt (6 Seed) – The Commodores have played well of late to ascend the standings. Their 83 Net Ranking is not good, though. They need to make the Final.
    • Arkansas (10 Seed) – They have to beat Auburn or they could be the most talented team (outside of UNC) to not make the Big Dance in 2023.
  • Prediction: The tournament is in Nashville, which may not be in the state of Kentucky, but close enough. Coach Cal will get his Cats to win this thing over Bama.

Big Ten

Mount Edey Will Turn It On in the Chi
  • Favorites:
    • Purdue (1 Seed) – Zach Edey and crew are still the top dog in this tourney.
    • Northwestern (2 Seed) – I can’t consider them a “favorite,” but it is good to see the Wildcats comfortably in the NCAA Field.
    • Indiana (3 Seed) – Trayce Jackson-Davis is a dude who can make this team go far.
  • Dark Horses:
    • Iowa (5 Seed) – The Hawkeyes don’t play D, but that shooting matters. In Chicago, the rims are forgiving.
    • Penn State (10 Seed) – Two words – JALEN PICKETT – he can put this team on his back to a deep run.
  • Bubble Teams:
    • Rutgers (9 Seed) – Losing talent during the season to injury, the Scarlet Knights need to get a couple of wins. Michigan is their first opponent – yikes.
    • Michigan (8 Seed) – Speaking of Michigan, I think that 8/9 match-up on Thursday is an elimination game at this point for the Big Dance.
    • Penn State (10 Seed) – See above as to why they can advance, but a loss versus Illinois will end our ability to see Pickett on the big stage.
    • Wisconsin (12 Seed) – I’m not sure why the bracketologists love the Badgers, but they stink. Still, if they can get to the Semis (that’s 3 wins though), then they probably will stay alive.
  • Prediction: I think Indiana beats the Boilers yet again in the Final.

Let’s do this!!!!

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.