It’s time for the most fun month of the year in sports. March Madness, which begins with the Conference Championships all the way to setting the Final Four. Essentially the College Basketball world goes from giving every single Division I team a chance to make it to Houston for this year’s Final Four. We are in for many buzzer beaters, crazy upsets and nail biters all month.

I’m going to lay out the following for you: The Schedule of Games, KenPom Ratings, Teams with Title Hopes and Bubble Watch.

The Schedule

Conference Tournaments begin as early as this week. Here are all the conference tournament dates, which each winner of the 32 conference tournament earns a bid in the Big Dance automatically.

Small Conference and Mid-Major Tournaments

Arch Madness Is A Favorite of Mine
  • Ohio Valley (OVC) – March 1st through March 4th – The first ticket punched to the dance. Morehead State (+100) has the top seed and defections to other conferences make the OVC a little less dangerous as other years.
  • Atlantic Sun (ASun) – The first tournament actually began on Monday, 2/27/2023 with the title game 3/5/2023 – Liberty (-245 favorite to win) and Kennesaw State (+250) will battle it out in this one.
  • Big South – March 1st through March 5th – UNC Asheville (+240) is the 1 Seed here with Longwood (+240) ready to take them out.
  • Missouri Valley (MVC) – March 2nd through 5th – Arch Madness has lost some luster with defections, but Drake (+135) is still a solid squad.
  • Sun Belt – February 28th through March 6th – Louisiana Lafayette (+340) and Marshall (+200) will fight for this bid.
  • Southern (SoCon) – March 3rd through March 6th – Fuman (+120) can return to the Big Dance, again some former powers left for other conferences, so less exciting this year.
  • Horizon – February 28th through March 7th – Youngstown State (+155) been playing well, but they will have stiff competition.
  • Northeast Conference (NEC) – March 1st through March 7th – Another First Four team here, but Merrimack (-143) can punch their ticket.
  • West Coast (WCC) – March 2nd through March 7th – The Zags (-118) may not have been as strong as past years, but they are still very good. St. Mary’s (-106) is no slouch either, both teams make the Dance, but who will win this league title?
  • Colonial Athletic (CAA) – March 3rd through March 7th – Hofstra (+155) has earned the #1 Seed, but Charleston (-121) has only lost 3 games all year. Should be a fun tournament.
  • Summit League – March 3rd through March 7th – Oral Roberts (-200) made noise before in the Big Dance, and went undefeated in conference play. However, there is no guarantee they make it without winning the tourney.
  • Patriot League – February 28th through March 8th – Colgate (-250) is on top yet again.
  • Big Sky – March 4-8th – Eastern Washington is the team to beat here.
  • Southland – March 5-8th – A wide open field this year.
  • American East (AmEast) – March 4th starts with title game held to Saturday, March 11th – Vermont is still the class of the conference, but they have to earn the bid.
  • Mountain West (MWC) – March 5-11th – The Mountain West can get in multiple teams unlike most of other teams on this Mid-Major list. San Diego State is a lock. Boise State, Utah State and Nevada all have real shots at the Big Dance. Should be a competitive tourney.
  • Big West – March 7th-11th – UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara and UC Riverside are all tied at a top the standing.
  • Metro Atlantic (MAAC) – March 7-11th – Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels are the top team, but remember they lost in the title game to the 2022 Cinderella, St. Peter’s, so another team could emerge.
  • Western Athletic (WAC) – March 7-11th – Utah Valley is the top team, but no lock for the bid.
  • Conference USA (CUSA) – March 8-11th – Florida Atlantic University (FAU) should still make the field regardless of the tournament, but do they really want to leave it to that?
  • Southwestern Athletic (SWAC) – March 8-11th – Alcorn State and Grambling should duke this one out.
  • Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC) – March 8-11th – a perennial 16 Seed First Four slot on the line, but these teams play hard – Howard is the top team this year.
  • Mid American (MAC) – March 9-11th – Kent State and Toledo should battle for this bid.
  • Atlantic 10 (A10) – March 7-12th. The A10 is looking like a one bid league in 2023 with VCU and Dayton likely in the title game.
  • American Athletic (AAC) – March 9-12th – Houston is a lock for the tournament and likely a #1 Seed, but can Memphis or some other team team steal a bid.
  • Ivy League – March 11th and 12th – A rare semi-final only tournament, which still hasn’t been set yet with one spot still on the line this week.

High Major Tournaments

Will KU Dominate in Kansas City Again?
  • Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) – March 7-11th – back in Greensboro where it should be. UNC, last year’s runner up is no lock for the Dance. They need to get some wins, and I only see max 6 bids in the weaker ACC than any year I can remember.
  • Big 12 – March 8-11th – The toughest conference in America will fight it out in Kansas City and could get in 8 of 10 teams, and we could see half of those teams in the 2nd weekend or more. You need to watch this one.
  • Big East – March 8-11th – Madison Square Garden always yields great moments in this one. There are some teams to watch for the Big Dance for sure.
  • Pacific Coast Conference (PAC 12) – March 8-11th – At T-Mobile in Vegas, there are only 2 teams confirmed in the Dance in UCLA and Arizona, but USC and a couple others could squeak in.
  • Southeastern Conference (SEC) – March 8-12th – In Nashville, the 2nd toughest conference should be a great one to see tournament teams at least 7.
  • Big Ten – March 8-12th – The United Center here in Chicago will be the venue for a tournament where several teams are on the Bubble. Purdue may be the #1 Seed, but can they earn a #1 Seed in the one that matters?

Selection Sunday is 3/12, which will determine the fate of the other 36 AT Large teams to make the full 68 teams.

Tournament Schedule

First Four Games – Tuesday, 3/14 and Wednesday, 3/15 in Dayton.

First Round Games – Thursday, 3/16 and Thursday, 3/17 – Various locations.

Second Round Games – Saturday, 3/18 and Sunday, 3/19 – Various locations.

Sweet Sixteen – Thursday, 3/23 and Friday, 3/24 – West – Las Vegas, NV (T-Mobile Arena); East – NYC (Madison Square Garden); South – Louisville, KY (KFC Yum Arena); Midwest – Kansas City, MO (T-Mobile Center)

Elite Eight – Saturday, 3/25 and Sunday, 3/26 – West – Las Vegas, NV (T-Mobile Arena); East – NYC (Madison Square Garden); South – Louisville, KY (KFC Yum Arena); Midwest – Kansas City, MO (T-Mobile Center)

Final Four – Saturday, 4/1 – Houston, TX (NRG Stadium)

Championship Game – Monday, 4/3 – Houston, TX (NRG Stadium)

KenPom Ratings

If you want to truly evaluate teams in College Basketball, it begins and ends with Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. He takes several indicators (including luck) to determine who the best teams are. For me, I like to look at 3 of the metrics: Overall Rating, Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. For the most part, in order to pick the Champ, a team will always be in the Top 20 in BOTH categories. Here are the Top 25 Teams in KenPom and their Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies as of Monday, 2/27/2023. I’ll also put their projected seeds by Joe Lunardi.

Champ Contenders

A Real Chance – In looking at the numbers, I think you have 6 true title contenders:

Houston Has Been Driving Past Everyone This Season
  • Houston (+700 to Win Title) – 1 in KenPom for a reason with experienced guards and a tough D. I worry about the level of competition in the AAC translating to bigger conference opponents, but Houston should make their 3rd straight Elite Eight at least.
  • Kansas (+900) – 7 in KenPom – Can the Jayhawks repeat? They can. They are not as talented or deep as 2022, but they play really hard and have run the Big 12 gauntlet.
  • Alabama (+900) – 3 in KenPom – I think they are the most athletic team in the country, and super Frosh F Brandon Miller is an NBA player (despite the off the court distraction). They should make the Final Four, but rugged defensive teams have been able to beat them.
  • UCLA (+1000) – 2 in KenPom and they have both the experience and talent to make it deep in March. I do think they lack the scoring punch to match other top teams, but their style and coach, Mick Cronin can devise a strategy to win games.
  • Purdue (+1100) – 6 in KenPom – I liked their prospects better a couple weeks ago, but they still have C Zach Edey and are good on both ends. Their young guards need to play better, as they have dropped 4 of 6.
  • Texas (+2500) – 9 in KenPom – Their metrics are good and I like the story of the Interim Coach Rodney Terry taking over, but I’ve seen them play this year and they will need to be more clutch in tough games than in Big 12 play.

The Next Cut – these teams can make a Final Four run based on metrics, coaching and experience.

Can the Zags defy expectations?
  • Arizona (+1600) – 11 in KenPom – They have a lot of talent, again. #6 in Offense, but can they stop good teams? I think they will outclass a lot of teams, but against a rugged Big 12 or SEC team, they can get knocked off.
  • Baylor (+1600) – 12 in KenPom – Great guards and 3 point shooting, but their D is awful especially in the lane (84th), still Coach Drew is excellent.
  • U Conn (+2000) – 5 in KenPom – a really good pre-season made them look great, but they have faltered in Big East play. Still good guards and Coach Hurley is solid.
  • Tennessee (+2500) – 4 in KenPom – however, even with the #1 D, their 62nd Offense has led to a lot of road losses, which scares me off of them.
  • Zags (+2500) – 10 in KenPom – Coach Few doesn’t have a good D, but they are #1 in Offense for a reason. They will be able to run a lot of teams out of the gym, which can get them to Houston.
  • Indiana (+3000) – 21 in KenPom – I think they are better than Purdue and they have an NBA talent in Trace Jackson-Davis. This team can make it to Houston.
  • Arkansas (+5000) – 15 in KenPom – I like this team a lot – I love Coach Musselman and they have Frosh Nick Smith who makes the offense better than the metrics (he was hurt for a while).
  • Miami (+5000) – 36 in KenPom – The metrics aren’t great – 12th on O and 122nd on D, but they have age and experience. Coach Larranaga is a great coach. He can get this team deep with the right draw.

Will there be surprises? Yes, but I think one of these 14 teams will win the title.

Potential Cinderellas

Now, who will be this year’s Cinderella from the smaller schools? We need to look at the Bracket on Selection Sunday, but here are 3 options:

Can Oral Roberts Do It Again?
  • Florida Atlantic – 26-3, 16-2 in CUSA – great metrics 31 in KenPom, 36th in Off and 46th on D. They can make some noise.
  • Liberty – 24-7, in the ASun – 42nd in KenPom, 58 in Off and 42 on D. If they can win the ASun, then they will be a popular Cinderella for good reason.
  • Oral Roberts – 27-4, 18-0 in the Summit – they are 60 in KenPom, 25th in Off, but 119th on D. Still, they can shoot their way to the Sweet 16 for sure.

Bubble Teams

These teams need to make the most out of their remaining regular season finales and win a couple games in the Conference Tournaments to secure a spot. I’ll list them in order of most to least likely and whether they are currently “IN” the field per Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS.

UNC and Bacot Still Have Work to Do
  • Florida Atlantic – Despite the great season, if they don’t make the conference final, then I think they may get bounced. The Committee doesn’t look at KenPom, they look at the NetRankings more. FAU is 19, so they should be in, but who knows. They are currently IN.
  • USC – This PAC12 Team has a shot at the Dance at 21-8 and 13-5 in the PAC 12. They can’t get knocked off early in Vegas, but they are currently IN.
  • Mississippi State – SEC team, so tough conference – 19-10 overall, but under .500 in the conference. The win over A&M Saturday really helped. They also have wins over TCU and Marquette in non-conference, which should differentiate them. Currently IN.
  • Nevada – Mountain West team, so inferior conference, but 22-7 with 12-4 conference record. So, they need to get to the MWC title game to punch their ticket. Currently IN.
  • Memphis – AAC team, so again not a great conference. They have not beaten Houston this year, but 22-7 record, 12-4 in AAC. I think a trip to the AAC title game will secure their spot. Currently IN.
  • West Virginia – Classic case – really tough conference, but poor record at 17-13 with only 6 wins in the Big 12, but this team could beat most teams in the field as seen on Saturday at Kansas. Currently IN barely.
  • Boise State – Mountain West team that is flailing down the stretch. They need to win this week and get to the MWC final next week to stay on the right side of the Bubble. Currently IN.
  • Wisconsin – This is not your typical Badgers’ team, and I don’t think they deserve a spot, but they somehow hold on to the Bubble this year. 16-12 overall and 8-10 in a weaker Big Ten to me means they are not worthy. Currently IN, per Lunardi (I don’t know why).
  • Arizona State – This 20-9 (11-7 Conference) PAC 12 team with a historic buzzer beater at Arizona on Saturday has them literally on the Bubble. Currently IN for Lunardi, OUT for Palm.
  • Michigan – The Wolverines have disappointed in 2022-23 at 17-12 (11-7 Conference), but the Big Ten Strength of Schedule has them straddling the cut line. If they can make a run in the tournament, then they can get in. I think they should be in over Wisconsin, but what do I know. Currently OUT for Lunardi, IN for Palm.
  • North Carolina – The Heels were the pre-season #1, but they have played very poorly. They got the big win over UVA this weekend, but they really need to beat Duke this weekend to secure themselves a shot or get to the ACC Final. Currently OUT.
  • Clemson – Very interesting case. 21-8 overall and 13-5 in the ACC normally gets you in every year, but not in 2023. Crappy metrics open the door for the Tigers to miss the Dance. Despite, 2 wins this past week, they are currently OUT.
  • OK State – Another classic case, as the Cowboys from the Big 12 will need to get some wins down the stretch. They have a better conference record than WVU, but at 16-13, it feels like only one of them will make it in. Losing 4 straight has them OUT.
  • Texas Tech – Tech missed a golden opportunity on Saturday to beat TCU and secure another conference win. Another 16-13 Big 12 team with only 5 conference wins, so I think unless they beat Kansas on Tuesday and OK State on Saturday, then they will be out – except for running the table in KC. Currently OUT.
  • Utah State – A Mountain West team that will need to knock off someone big in the MWC Tourney. 22-7 and 11-5 in conference, but I think only 3 teams make the Dance from the MWC. Currently OUT.

It’s going to be a fun ride. I’ll do a Bubble Watch review next week with Power Conference previews, and then a Big Dance Preview after Selection Sunday.

Let’s get to watching.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.