This is it the big day everyone has waited for. The season starts in August with pre-season games, then the regular season slog of 18 weeks, now the field has whittled down to just 2 – both worthy of a Championship.
The Teams
NFC – Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 3.33 Wegs Playoff Index)
The Birds have had a great year. I started hearing a lot of buzz about them in training camp in July. Their odds skyrocketed with the acquisition of WR AJ Brown from TEN, but it was the reports that QB Jalen Hurts was much improved throwing the football. That along with a refinement of what is known as the Six Pack Offense (QB led running attack), and the Eagles were the best team all year in the NFL. Besides this Offense, the Defense has been stellar. Here’s some more insights:
Offense: QB Jalen Hurts is the centerpiece of this dynamic attack. Only one player in the league (DET RB Jamaal Williams) had more rushing TDs in the league this year, as Hurts tied with great runners like Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler for 13 rushing scores. Add 3701 Passing Yards and another 22 TDs throwing, and Hurts was the most dynamic offensive player this year. More importantly, he only threw 6 INTs on the year. The addition of Brown (1496 yards and 11 TDs) was key, but the emergence of 2nd year WR, Devonta Smith with almost 1200 yards and 7 TDs make the outside threat real for the Eagles. TE Dallas Goeddert was a solid 3rd option in the passing game. To help Hurts, RB Miles Sanders is no slouch with 1269 yards rushing and 11 TDs with passing downs RB Kenneth Gainwell, and the Eagles will score (3rd in the NFL this season at 28.1 PPG).
The main issue for them on O is if Hurts is actually healthy. His shoulder injury late in the season has lingered. In the 2 PHI playoff games, Hurts has only thrown for 275 yards and 2 TDs. Now, they haven’t needed to throw the ball as they have throttled the Giants and 49ers. However, in the big game, Hurts will need to throw for the Eagles to win. The O Line has also been dinged up of late – OT Lane Johnson missed time, who will be key to protecting Hurts, but does not appear on the Injury Report.
Defense: The Eagles D is top flight, pun intended. They are the #1 D against the Pass this year allowing just 179.6 YPG. Now, their competition is not the Chiefs each week, as they only faced Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd half of the season yielding over 30 points in both those contests. Still, the Eagles led the league in sacks (70), so the pressure will be on Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The vulnerability for the Eagles on D is their Rush D, which allowed a middle of the pack, 121.6 YPG. The Eagles essentially dare you to run the ball, and as they play Nickel D all game long – 4 down linemen, 2 LBs and 5 DBs. That D Line is strong with Fletcher Cox and Hasson Reddick, but you’ve seen them get beat with teams like WAS that ran it down their throats (as did DAL in that late season loss). Still, the D will likely not be the reason the Eagles lose on Sunday.
AFC – Kansas City Chiefs (16-3, 5.67 WPI)
The Chiefs are the new Patriots of the AFC. KC has now made it to the big game 3 out of the last 4 years after hosting 5 straight AFC Championship games. QB Patrick Mahomes is the best NFL player, and he showed it to get here against CIN. However, the Chiefs needed this extra week to get their full or near full complement of players back on the field.
Offense: When you think of Offense, you think of the Chiefs. They were the #1 Offense in the NFL this year both Yards Per Game (413.6) and Points Per Game (29.2). They are the #1 Passing Offense (297.8 YPG), as Mahomes was the only 5000+ yard passer in 2022. That is pretty remarkable considering he lost his top outside target in Tyreek Hill to MIA in the off season. Still, Mahomes has his real favorite target still on the team in All World TE Travis Kelce who finished 8th in the league in yards with 1338 (+400 yards more than the next closest TE) – he is a WR essentially, plus 12 TDs. Somehow teams can’t cover this guy even without the same outside threat. Without Hill, KC added veteran pass catchers in JuJu Smith-Schuster who added 933 yards and 3 TDs (Questionable Knee) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (687 yards, 2 TDs). The Chiefs did run the ball a little more this year with rookie RB Isiah Pacheco who took over for Clyde Edwards-Helaire who was injured after Week 10, but has been activated for the Super Bowl. Jerrick McKinnon is also a swiss army knife for this team who can run, catch or protect Mahomes when needed. It is an unheralded group of RBs, but if CEH is actually healthy, then they have a variety of ways they can attack that PHI front.
Defense: On D, their D Line sets the tone for the team. The Chiefs were second in sacks to only PHI this season. DT Chris Jones back inside dominated with 15.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. He will be a handful for C Jason Kelce and company. Along with DEs Frank Clark, George Karlaftis and Carlos Dunlap, if the Chiefs can get ahead in this one, Jalen Hurts will be under siege. Defensive injuries to LB Willie Gay (Questionable – Shoulder) and L’Jarius Sneed (who just cleared concussion protocol) could slow the Pass D some, if they are not 100%. The middle of the field is a favorite target of Hurts to Brown, so Gay’s speed is important in coverage.
The real challenge for KC is can they stop the PHI rushing attack. They were 8th against the run this year at 107.2 Yards Per Game, but I think that was mostly game script driven, as most teams had to throw to keep up with KC.
The Match Up
Seems to me that it will be strength on strength in this one:
#1 Passing O (KC) vs #1 Passing D (PHI) – Mahomes and Kelce versus the Eagles pass rush and elite secondary. Mahomes has been careless with the ball this season with 12 INTs, but none in the playoffs. He did have a bad fumble versus CIN, so he does tend to turn the ball over. He will need a clean game to win this one.
#5 Rushing O (PHI) vs. #8 Rushing D (KC) – Hurts, the RBs and O Line against Jones and the D Line. I think the PHI line is nasty. They were able to control a much better front in SF, but I expect KC to blitz to stop the run to make Hurts beat them with his arm (and injured shoulder).
In order for the Chiefs to win, HC Andy Reid has to be actually committed to the run. He needs to use RB Isiah Pacheco and mix in the scat backs of Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon to slow that pass rush for Mahomes. Plus, maybe if Mahomes’s ankle is healthy, the run can set up play action to suck in those CBs and Ss for deep shots to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and even Kelce. You have to think PHI will bracket Kelce and make the RBs and WRs beat them.
For PHI, if they control the tempo like in other games, then it will be a long day for Mahomes with that pass rush. I expect PHI to try to take a couple of shots early to loosen that run game up, and with a lead this team is deadly.
If I look at both teams, it’s not all that hard to handicap:
D Line – Advantage PHI
O Line – Advantage PHI
Secondary – Advantage PHI
LBs – I’ll call it even, although PHI doesn’t play a lot of LBs
WRs – Advantage PHI
RBs – I’ll call it even, although PHI RB have produced more
TE – Advantage KC
QB – Advantage KC
So, essentially, KC is better at 2 positions on the field – QB and TE, their 2 best players. PHI is better or even everywhere else.
Betting the Game
PHI -1.5, 51 Total – ML -121 PHI/KC +100 – BetRivers – Illinois
I’ve heard that a record $16B – that’s right Billion – will be bet on this year’s Super Bowl. So, just over 4 years the “handle” or amount bet on the Super Bowl has increased by 30x legally. The ease of betting on your phone and through the multitude of sportsbooks allows anyone to get some action on the game. We’ve got 2 great teams to compete for our favor, and one thing we do know – one of the Kelce Brothers will win their 2nd Super Bowl.
PHI is going to win this game if Hurts protects the ball (ML -121 – 50% of the Handle and 45% of the Bets) and cover the -1.5 (-110), although it worries me that 71% of the money and 69% of the bets are on the Eagles spread. I usually like to be aligned with the Books. This tells you that the Books need KC to cover the +1.5. I make this game PHI -2 on a neutral field, which is right in line with the actual line, though.
The Total is more difficult for me, but all the money is coming in on the Over pushing the total from 49.5 in the opener to 51 now at -107 (56% of the Money and 52% of the Bets). I like the Under 51, so aligned with the Books.
However, I’ve written before, I have the Eagles +550 to win the Super Bowl. So, I’m going to hedge my position here with this Teaser – KC up to +7.5 and Total up to 57 Under. That’s my bet this week. I also might Hedge my position with a little money on Patrick Mahomes as the MVP (+130).
If you are betting the game though straight up, then PHI ML -121 versus the spread -1.5, I still think they Cover, but with a short number there isn’t a big difference between the ML and Spread in terms of price, Under 51 is the call on the Total. As you can see, the Books have a lot of liability on the Eagles -1.5 and Total Over 51, plus I think if the Eagles win they will bleed the clock. The Over is in play only if the Chiefs get out early and PHI has to come from behind. Don’t forget In-Game Wagering – just be smart about it. The Vig or Juice is higher in-game, and I wouldn’t chase too badly if one team jumps all over the other. Spread and Total bets in-game are the way to go as the numbers are probably pretty close.
With the Super Bowl, you have tons of props to bet on. I like the following props:
My RB bias is apparent, but Gainwell has been great in the playoffs, and Pacheco runs with a ferocity that is needed for KC.
- Kenneth Gainwell – Over 2.5 Receptions (+215)
- Kenneth Gainwell – Over Receiving 11.5 Yards (-107) or Alt Over 19.5 (+235)
- Kenneth Gainwell – Total Yards Rushing + Receiving – Over 49.5 (+310)
- Kenneth Gainwell – Anytime TD (+320)
- Isiah Pacheco – Over 19.5 Yards Receiving (+114)
- Travis Kelce – Anytime TD (-121)
- Hasson Reddick – Over 0.5 Sacks (-155)
- Total Players to Complete a Pass 2.5 Over (+215)
Note, BetRivers Illinois does not have shortest TD props, which I would like to hit as well. I like TD inside the 1 Yard Line.
Props I won’t bet on, but that are fun:
- Over National Anthem Time: 126.5 Seconds (2 Minutes and 6.5 Seconds -110)
- Gatorade Color – Blue +900
Go ahead and make that dip. Put on that jersey and enjoy what should be a good Super Bowl.
Wegs