Champ Sunday is the Final Four of the NFL. We had a blowout and a classic. Hopefully, you stuck with it.
Champ Sunday Recap
- Eagles Dominate 49ers: It was a weird game. The energy was high in Philly as the Eagles took the field. In the first drive PHI converted on a 4th Down with a pass to WR Devonta Smith (which was not challenged and he dropped it) that led to an early TD. Then, on the 49ers first possession, QB Brock Purdy was hit on his arm while throwing which was called incomplete, but later reversed to a fumble. He was hurt on the play (now we know he tore his UCL) and had to leave the game. The SF D held, but enter Josh Johnson which immediately you could see that he was going to be ineffective. Still SF was able to tie the game in the 2nd quarter on a phenomenal run by RB Christian McCaffery (15 carries, 84 yards, 1 TD rushing, 4 catches for 22 yards). PHI answered with a TD drive and wouldn’t look back. A bad fumble by Johnson on the 49ers’ next possession led to another TD for a huge 14 point advantage at the half. In the 2nd half, Johnson was knocked out with a concussion, and Purdy had to come back even though he couldn’t throw past 5 yards (97 total passing yards for SF). The Eagles continued their dominance in these playoffs with a 31-7 win. QB Jalen Hurts didn’t have to do much to win with just 121 yards passing and 39 yards rushing with a TD, but the O Line beat up the league’s best defense with 148 total rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.
- Mahomes Magical: The Bengals made the mistake of calling the Chiefs’ stadium, “Burrowhead” which even the mayor of Cincinnati said publicly. Mahomes and the Chiefs came out firing on both sides of the ball, as the D sacked Joe Burrow 4 times in the first quarter and allowed 0 net yards in the 1st Quarter. On O, the Chiefs were running trick plays that resulted in 2 first quarter FGs. The Chiefs stretched the led to 13-3 midway through the 2nd quarter when Mahomes (326 yards passing, 2 TDs) hit TE Travis Kelce (7 catches, 78 yards) on a 4th and 1 from the CIN 14 yard line, and despite a Burrow INT, the Bengals got a late FG to turn the tide a bit, 13-6 at the half. In the 2nd half, a big throw by QB Joe Burrow to WR Tee Higgins tied the game at 13 with their first possession only to be answered by the Chiefs as Mahomes threw a TD pass on a dime to WR Marques Valdez-Scantling who had a day (6 catches, 116 yards) on 3rd and 10. The Chiefs looked like they were in control at midfield on their next possession, but then Mahomes was too quick on the draw and fumbled the ball to CIN at midfield. Burrow cashed in after hitting WR Jamar Chase on a big 4th and 6 down to the 6 yard line to tie the game yet again at 20-20. The Chiefs were looking at blowing yet another game to these Bengals, but the D picked up the Chiefs with a big tipped INT of Burrow on their next drive. Then, the Chiefs pinned CIN back on their own 6 yard line with just 2:30 to play. KC’s D came up with the big stop on DE Chris Jones’s sack of Burrow (who finished with 270 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, sacked 5 times) on 3rd down setting the stage for the final sequence. CIN punted to the rookie WR Sky Moore who returned the ball 29 yards to midfield. Then, on 3rd and 4 from the CIN 47 with just 17 seconds to go, Mahomes on that gimpy ankle scampered for the first down in the waning seconds and no timeouts only to be hit out of bounds for another 15 yards setting up the GW FG from K Harrison Butker who hit from 45 yards to go ahead and win, 23-20. The Chiefs advance to their 3rd Super Bowl in the past 5 years.
Predictions: 1-1 S/U (although I reversed myself by Friday on KC), 0-2 ATS (again I liked KC by kickoff), 1-1 Totals (CIN-KC went Under)
Going into the Super Bowl, I’ve been really hot on the picks: 10-2 S/U (on the blog – KC flip put me to 11-1), ATS 8-4 (on the blog, but 9-3 with the flip), not so great on Totals (5-7), but I was able to hit my KC teaser and hit the middle on in game Under 45 to get me up 17 units in just 3 weeks. Plus, I hit +220 on the Eagles to win the NFC.
Early Super Bowl Preview
- Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 2/12 at 5:30 PM Central on FOX – The media circus has already begun, and there are not a lack of storylines with Andy Reid facing his former team or the Kelce Bros on opposite sides. However, the Eagles are playing great and enter the game a lot healthier than the Chiefs. Mahomes will get 2 more weeks to get that ankle right, but this is a 4-6 week injury, so he won’t be 100%. The Chiefs also sustained injuries to CB L’Jarius Sneed, WRs Mecole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney, and maybe LB Willie Gay. I think the match up comes down to will the Chiefs run the football. PHI is the #1 D against the pass, which is the Chiefs’ strength, but they can be run on and KC needs to commit to it. PHI was able to thwart the SF run game without a viable QB, but the Chiefs’ O Line is not as good as the 49ers. So, the right team is favored here. The one real shot the Chiefs have in this one is if Jalen Hurts continues to play just ok in the Super Bowl. I think KC will make him beat them, so my early pick is PHI laying the points. Full disclosure though, I have PHI +550 to win the Super Bowl, so I will likely hedge that position with KC in some way. Next week I’ll get a little deeper into the match up and give some player and game props to target.
In the meantime, relax on Sunday, see your family and maybe watch some college hoops which I will write about soon enough.
Wegs