We have our Final Four in the NFL. I think we can say that we have the 4 best teams at this point. Maybe not epic games in the Divisional Round, but some intriguing storylines for the coming weekend.

Divisional Round Recap

Kittle Makes Circus Catch Opening Up Game
  • Chiefs Survive and Advance: The Chiefs may have been favored big in this one, but if you actually watched the game, you could see it was an even contest. In the first half, a huge moment in these playoffs – Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes got his ankle caught under a defensive lineman as he suffered a high ankle sprain and left the game. At that point, the Chiefs led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter. Leave it to the KC D who played well all day forcing a punt, but the Jags pinned the Chiefs at the 2 on their next drive. Enter, QB veteran, Chad Henne, the 37 year old who hasn’t been in this situation since the 2020 playoffs. Henne looked shaky at first, but led the Chiefs on a 98 yard TD drive with short passes and running RB Isaiah Pacheco (12 carries, 95 yards) who lowered his head to get tough yards with the TD to TE Travis Kelce (14 catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs) for a 17-7 lead. The Jags’ Trevor Lawrence was solid, 217 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, but not great on Saturday. He still hit Zay Jones on a deep route late in the 3rd Quarter setting up a TD from RB Travis Etienne (10 carries, 62 yards, 1 TD, 3 catches for 18 yards), to cut the lead to 20-17 at the end of the 3rd. With Mahomes back under center in the 2nd half and no one covering Kelce, another TD to MVS to put the lead to 10. Then, the Jags answered with a big drive in the KC Red Zone only to have RB Jamal Agnew fumble (before contact in the rain) at the KC 3 yard line to end their comeback bid. In the end, the Chiefs did what the needed to win the game to host their 5th straight AFC Championship game, 27-20.
  • Eagles Dominate Giants: The Eagles may have entered Saturday with some question marks, but after the first quarter, there was no doubt. PHI’s Jalen Hurts crushed the Giants’ D – 154 yards passing, 2 TDs, 34 yards rushing, 1 TD, while the PHI RBs Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders combined for 202 yards rushing and a TD. The Giants were no match, and the game script kept RB Saquon Barkley out of the game as he only got 9 carries for 61 yards and 2 catches for 21 yards. The Eagles move on winning, 38-7, to host the NFC Championship Game.
  • Bengals Disrespectful: I’ve said it before on my podcast, The Side Action, that CIN’s Joe Burrow does not give a s##t where or who he plays. That attitude carried over to the entire Bengals’ team who thinks they can win any game, even if there were injuries on the O Line. The Bengals came out and punched the Bills in the mouth from the start on a 6 play, 79 yard TD drive with a Burrow (242 yards passing, 2 TDs) to a wide open WR Jamar Chase (5 catches, 61 yards, 1 TD), followed by a 10 play, 72 yard drive with another TD to TE Hayden Hurst (5 catches for 59, 1 TD). On the other side, BUF who is supposed to be suited for the snow looked off and not able to move the line of scrimmage. QB Josh Allen was able to get a 2nd Quarter TD to get closer at 14-7 at the half, but 25 for 42 (59.5%) for 265 yards without a TD pass is not going to cut it against the Bengals. In the second half, CIN just manhandled the O and D lines of the Bills, as RB Joe Mixon ran for 105 yards and the Bengals didn’t turn the ball over in the relative easy win, 27-10, to advance to their 2nd straight AFC Championship game at KC.
  • 49ers Win Slugfest: The NFL saved the best game for last on Sunday night, as the Cowboys went into Levi’s Stadium conjuring images of games of yore. In this one, it wasn’t Montana, Young or Aikman, but the Defenses that ruled the day. Both defenses were excellent all day. Neither team could get a real edge in the first half, as DAL did find the end zone with TE Dalton Schultz catch early in the 2nd quarter (with another missed XP), but when RB Tony Pollard (6 carries, 22 yards, 2 catches for 11 yards) went down with a broken leg late in the 2nd quarter, the DAL O went cold. In the 2nd half, SF finally leaned on RBs Christian McCaffery and Elijah Mitchell (24 carries, 86 yards rushing and 1 TD combined) despite the tough DAL D. However, it was TE George Kittle (5 catches for 95 yards) who made a juggling catch in the middle of the field for a 30 yard gain late in the 3rd that opened things up for their only TD drive (a 91 yard drive) of the game. The Cowboys couldn’t cash in on a costly fumble by SF with a TD to tie the game and settled for a FG, which opened the door for SF to work the clock down. In the end, the 49ers outmuscled and outcoached the Cowboys for a 19-12 win and the 2 poor throws by QB Dak Prescott (206 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) cost his team along with the lack of explosive options outside of WR CeeDee Lamb – 10 catches, 117 yards. SF advances to their 3rd NFC Title Game in 4 years.

Predictions: Another good week here, S/U 3-1 (Bengals), ATS 3-1 (Cowboys), Totals 2-2 (All Unders)

Championship Sunday Preview

Can Burrow Get Back to the Super Bowl?
  • 49ers at Eagles (-2.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/29 at 2 PM Central on FOX – Per my Index, these are the 2 top teams in the NFL. SF is the #1 Defense, the Eagles are #2 – in Yards/Game. So, DAL was a great D, but in theory, PHI is better. I do think the Eagles can be run on – as they give up 120+ yards per game on the ground, but they are the #1 Pass D. SF is a good running team, which is not a good news for PHI. However, I’ll stand by that SF’s QB Brock Purdy’s luck will run out in PHI. He almost threw another couple of INTs yet again (on the TD drive). He will need to make plays at some point that matter, and even with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffery – he will need to protect the ball. PHI has the better QB in Hurts. SF will slow the run attack, but can they cover AJ Brown and Smith at WR? That is the question. I think Hurts can make enough plays to win this one, but -2.5 is just too much. I put this game as a 1 point spread, maybe 1.5. So, I’ll go SF +2.5 and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win at all. Total Under 45.5. (Just a note, I do have PHI to win the NFC at +220, but I also have a ticket on SF to win the SB at +600 – so I like them both).
  • Bengals at Chiefs (+1.5, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/29 at 5:30 PM Central on CBS – The Mahomes injury is huge in this one, although let’s be honest, the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs 3 times the last 2 seasons with a healthy Mahomes. The Bengals and Chiefs are basically even with Mahomes healthy. So, I’m not surprised to see the Bengals favored even on the road. KC did open as a -1 favorite, so the move on the Mahomes injury has happened. However, the real story here is can KC stop the Bengals on Offense. CIN ran and passed at will at BUF. KC’s D Line – Chris Jones and Frank Clark need to play big. I think the Bengals win this one outright and Cover -1.5, however if this line moves in the -2 to -2.5 range then I’ll bet on KC. The Total will be Over 46.5 in this one though. Mahomes will make some plays, and in the end, if the Chiefs do win, then I’ll have to back them in AZ (KC is the only team I don’t have on a future to win the SB).

Should be a fun Sunday.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.