NFL Playoffs: Full Playoff Preview and Wild Card Predictions

Loyal readers, last week was a strange one. I was traveling for work, but more importantly, the Damar Hamlin incident really gave me pause. I’m happy to see that he is doing much better. We are all hoping for a full recovery.

With Week 18 in the books, we have our tournament field. Simple format – Win or Go Home. As the late John Madden would say, “It’s the finality of it.” The best teams usually win, but there’s no extra game or even half to give your opponent a chance to get an edge to comeback from. I’ll go through the field and reveal the Wegs Index Playoff edition, plus preview this week’s games and make full bracket predictions.

The Field

AFC

1. Chiefs 14-3 (5.67 Index) – With home field advantage until the AFC Championship game (if BUF doesn’t get there), KC is the league’s best offense yet again with the most Yards/Game and Points/Game. However, this D has not been great – middle of the pack in this field and the worst stat is -5 TO Differential (13th of 14 teams).
2. Bills 13-3 (3.50) – With Damar doing better, the Bills can focus on the task at hand with extra motivation. The Bills are the Top AFC Team in the Index – 2nd in Yards/Game and Points/Game in the field with an equally good D – 3rd in Yards/Game Against and 2nd in Points Against. Like KC, TO’s have hurt them, especially in the Red Zone. If Josh Allen protects the ball, then they will be tough to beat.
3. Bengals 12-4 (6.00) – Joe Burrow and company are white hot (8 straight wins). The numbers do not pop like BUF, but no one wants to face this team. Their biggest edge is Burrow doesn’t really turn the ball over compared to Allen and Mahomes, and the Offense is more balanced – Run/Pass.
4. Jags 9-8 (8.17) – The Jags close the season on a tear with 5 straight wins and 6 of 7. Again, not spectacular statistically, but QB Trevor Lawrence has not been turning the ball over allowing a +5 TO Differential which is key in January.
5. Chargers 10-7 (9.17) – The Chargers won down the stretch as the team got healthy, but WR MIke Williams hurt his back in the finale. He’s big for this team, but QB Justin Herbert makes his playoff debut and will be the key to any victories.
6. Ravens 10-7 (7.50) – Another year where without QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens crumble down the stretch. It’s unclear he will play this weekend, and if he doesn’t then CIN will play in BUF easily.
7. Dolphins 9-8 (10.17) – With Tua out, the Fins backed into the playoffs with a tight last minute win over the Jets. QB Skylar Thompson is not an NFL QB, so not sure how they keep up with the Bills.

NFC

1. Eagles 14-3 (3.33) – The return of QB Jalen Hurts in Week 18 allowed the Birds to secure the bye and Home Field Advantage. The Eagles have been great all year – 3rd on Offense in this group in both Yards/Game and Points/Game. The D is 2nd in Yards Against, but 6th in Points against with a couple of bad performances down the stretch. I still like PHI, but it’s not as clear as it seemed 4 or 5 weeks ago.
2. 49ers 13-4 (2.33) – SF is the top team in the Index, and despite having 3 QBs play this year has won 10 games in a row since the loss to KC in October!! The only weakness they have is a rookie QB Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant). #1 in Yards Against, Points Against and TO Differential, but still in the Top 5 in the Offensive categories. I’m going to buy in to them to at least get to PHI for the title game given their path.
3. Vikings 13-4 (10.33) – The Vikings are the classic pretender. A 13-4 team with a negative point differential. Give them credit for winning 8 one score games, but they are the worst D in the field giving up 388.7 YPG and 25.1 PPG. Not a good recipe for success.
4. Bucs 8-9 (10.67) – Does TB12 have another miracle run in him? I don’t think so. The Bucs haven’t played well on O at all – 14th in the field at 18.4 PPG and 12th in YPG. Maybe they can turn it on or they will need to lean on the D yet again for wins.
5. Cowboys 11-5 (5.33) – A subpar performance at WAS and really month of December has the Boys looking like an early upset even at TB. The D swooned down the stretch as teams started to light up that lackluster secondary – putting them 7th in YPG. If DAL gets TOs like they usually do +10 (2nd in the field), then they can go far. I don’t trust HC Mike McCarthy though.
6. Giants 9-7-1 (11.50) – The Giants are not flashy – the worst in Yards/Game on Offense at 333.9 in this field, but they like to keep games close. HC Brian Daboll should be Coach of the Year, and I think he can get yet another surprise win this weekend.
7. Seahawks 9-8 (10.67) – The surprise of the season with QB Geno Smith at the helm early, but the D was terrible down the stretch – in this group, 13th in both PPG and YPG against. They may have something for SF, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Weekend

Now with 6 games from Saturday to Monday, the NFL has found a way to get us more hooked on the action.

7 Seahawks at 2 49ers (-10, 42.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/14 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – This would be the biggest upset in recent memory. SF beat SEA twice handily this year, and SEA finally got 2 wins to close the year, while SF is crushing everyone. Look Purdy’s day will come when he will cost his team a win, but not on Saturday. SF wins and Covers -10. Total Under 42.5.

5 Chargers at 4 Jags (+1, 47.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/14 at 7:15 PM Central on NBC – Probably the most even match up on paper, and the Chargers need some revenge for the Jags’ embarrassment of them in Week 3. So, the Chargers are back to healthy, and I think Herbert is legit against a poor pass D, but I like the Jags in this one. A young team with a coach who won’t mess things up. Jags win S/U, Cover +1, Total Under 47.5.

7 Dolphins at 2 Bills (-9.5, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/15 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Fins played tough in the cold up in BUF about a month ago, but without Tua, MIA has no shot here. The D isn’t very good, and the Bills will play inspired ball. I like BUF to win and Cover -9.5. Total Under 46.5 (MIA can’t score).

6 Giants at 3 Vikings (-3, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/15 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – Another rematch here (seems to be a theme this week), the Vikes escaped a close one, but I don’t like this team. Brian Daboll rested his team last week and probably has his strategy in slowing the MIN O. RB Saquon Barkley should feast on this terrible D. Giants win outright and Cover +3, Total Over 48.5.

6 Ravens at 3 Bengals (-7.5, 42 Total) – Sunday, 1/15 at 7:15 PM Central on NBC – Literally a rematch of last week’s game, but will Lamar Jackson play? I haven’t seen any reports that he will. Even if he does, won’t he be rusty? This Bengals team has the Super Bowl on its mind, so the Ravens are just a quick stop en route to that goal. Bengals win, I’ll give BAL the Cover +7.5, and Total Under 42 (how will the Ravens score a lot?).

5 Cowboys at 4 Bucs (+2.5, 45.5 Total) – Monday, 1/16 at 7:15 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – Look I know all the sharps are on the Bucs because the Cowboys are a public team and have played poorly down the stretch. However, has anyone watched this Bucs team? They stink. They shouldn’t be in the field, and more importantly, I’m not sure they can keep up with the Boys. I like DAL to win, Cover -2.5 and this Total will go Over 45.5.

Divisional Round

Hopefully some good games here, but here we go:

AFC

4 Jags at 1 Chiefs – Lawrence will not be ready for the rabid Chiefs fans. KC will win this one.

3 Bengals at 2 Bills – The match up we almost saw in Week 17, but in BUF this time. Man, this could be the best game of the playoffs. I love Burrow, but I think the Bills will play at a high level to get the W in a classic.

NFC

6 Giants at 1 Eagles – A divisional match up here, and I don’t think it will be pretty for the G-Men. A moral victory to get this far, but the Birds will roll to the NFC Title Game.

5 Cowboys at 2 49ers – A classic match up for the NFL here, but if SF gets Purdy to not make mistakes in Wild Card weekend, then the D will take control of DAL and advance to play PHI.

Championship Weekend

2 49ers vs. 1 Eagles – Dang, another great game here. My Index says to take the 49ers, so I will bet on them. However, I think on the road in the NFC Title Game, that is when Brock Purdy will hit his limit. Can they win the game? Yes, they can, and I’ll root for it, but Hurts can make more plays against pressure compared to Purdy – it’s that simple. Birds in the Bowl.

2 Bills vs. 1 Chiefs – A neutral site game per the Owners’ Agreement, so not sure where that will be played, but it doesn’t matter – what a great match up. Fans will be happy to see this match up or a rematch of Bengals/Chiefs. In this one, I’m going to stick with the better team on paper in BUF. The Bills will get that revenge and finally get back to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl

2 Bills vs. 1 Eagles – Two teams who played great all year long. I like the Bills in this match up. They don’t run the ball enough, but their D is fast, and that is what they will need to slow down Hurts and that solid WR corps from Philly. The Bills will hoist that elusive Lombardi Trophy for the first time in Arizona.

Bills win the Super Bowl – yes, my pre-season prediction.

I’ll be back again next week to review the action and dig into the match-ups for the Divisional Round.

Wegs