NFL: Week 16 – Gifts Given to Many

In the NFL Week 16, the theme was turnovers. Some teams had the Christmas spirit and gave their games away over and over.

NFL Week 16 – Recap

• Cowboys Steal One: The Eagles had the Stash, Gardiner Minshew under center, and he played well. He threw for 355 yards and 2 TDs, but when WR Quez Watkins got stripped of the ball late when the game was tied at 34, which led to a DAL FG to take the lead. Then, RB Miles Sanders didn’t secure the ball on the next drive for a fumble leading to another FG. Minshew drove the Eagles down, but couldn’t get the go ahead TD late giving the Boys an outside shot at the NFC East with the 40-34 win.
• Lions Get Throttled: With 6 of 7 wins, the Lions looked primed to make the playoffs with a win at CAR, but the slightly lower temps must have slowed that red hot offense. The Panthers came out and just pummeled them in the 1st half, 24-7. The loss gives CAR hope for the NFC South, but more importantly, the 37-23 loss by DET opens the door for GB to make the postseason.
• Steelers Steal One: Saturday night was a celebration of life for the late, great, PIT RB Franco Harris. He passed during the week, and Saturday was the 50th Anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. Most thought this would be a demolition of the Raiders in prime time. However, the Raiders opened with a TD on their first drive to quiet the crowd. Then, it was an ugly defensive battle in the elements. With the ball down 10-6 with just over 2 minutes to play, rookie QB Kenny Pickett was able to convert on a critical 4th and 1 on a QB sneak that may not have really got there, and then a TD pass to WR George Pickens to win the game, 13-10, keeping the Steelers alive in the playoffs and HC Mike Tomlin’s streak alive for non-losing seasons at 7-8 with 2 to play.
• Packers Need to Thank Tua: The Dolphins have been reeling. After going 8-3, they dropped 3 straight on the road, but with a 20-13 lead at the half, things looked good. Then, the 4th Quarter happened. MIA’s QB Tua Tagovailoa threw 3 INTs in the 4th setting up GB for 2 FGs to go ahead and eventually win the game outright, 26-20. Now, MIA is 8-7 with the Pats in NE and Jets at home. They can still miss the post-season, if they can’t split those games. The Pack at 7-8 now control their own destiny for the playoffs.
• Broncos Are Awful: After a good win in Week 15, the team looked like it either quit or just wanted to be home for Christmas, as QB Russell Wilson threw 3 INTs and Rypien threw a pick 6 late in the 51-14 loss. The Broncos have fired first year coach, Nathaniel Hackett, which is extremely rare to fire a guy mid-season in their first season.

Predictions: S/U 4-0, ATS 2-2 (Eagles blew that cover and MIN of course can’t cover a number)

Wegs Index After 16 Weeks

1. Eagles 13-2 (3.50 Index) – PHI played well without Hurts on Offense, but that D was not good. Maybe a concern for the top rated team.
2. 49ers 11-4 (4.00) – SF has closed the gap to the top every single week. They have now won 8 straight games with that D playing well and Purdy making enough plays. Watch out!
3. Bills 12-3 (4.83) – BUF is not playing great, but the 2nd half at CHI was more of what we expect. MIA and the Jets’ collapse have given BUF the division for a 3rd season in a row.
4. Cowboys 11-4 (5.83) – The Boys’ D has not been great. Is Micah Parsons hurt? The O has been steaming, but at some point that pass rush needs to get back to dominant.
5. Bengals 11-4 (8.00) – The Bengals, after the 49ers, are the hottest team in the NFL. They have a really tough schedule, but QB Joe Burrow does not care. This team is really dangerous.
6. Ravens 10-5 (9.17) – The metrics are still ok, but without Lamar Jackson, this team is pedestrian.
7. Chiefs 12-3 (11.00) – The Offense continues to be elite, but 15th in scoring D and yards against really needs to improve in the playoffs.
8. Patriots 7-8 (11.33) – The D is why this team is higher than they should be. 25th in yards gained, that’s why they can’t beat good teams.
9. Jags 7-8 (12.00) – The Jags are closing the season strong. They now lead the AFC South, and the Titans are completely falling apart.
10. Chargers (14.50) – The Chargers clinched with the win on MNF, so they could choose to rest their troops or try to move up to the 5th Seed over BAL.

Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Bills (12-3) – The 1 Seed really comes down to MNF at CIN. A loss will virtually give KC the 1 Seed, but if they can pull it off then a win over NE in Week 18 gets BUF back to the early 90s advantage in the playoffs.
2. Chiefs (12-3) – With the Chargers being the only team that can beat them in the division done for 2022, the coach-less Broncos and Raiders remain on the schedule. I think they win out for no worse than the 2 Seed and likely the 1 Seed if CIN beats BUF on Monday.
3. Bengals (11-4) – Technically, they can get the 1 Seed with a win at home over BUF and the big showdown at home vs BAL in Week 18. I don’t think they can take the 1 Seed with KC’s schedule, but a win over BUF would mean hosting BUF in the Divisional Round versus going to BUF. That seems significant.
4. Jags (7-8) – The Jags are peaking at the right time, and with the Titans collapse, it’s up to them. Effectively the AFC South comes down to Week 18 vs. TEN, so this week doesn’t matter much.
5. Ravens (10-5) – The Ravens have clinched their spot, but I don’t see them beating the Top 4 seeds, they need Lamar and a great Lamar to be competitive.
6. Chargers (9-6) – With the big win on MNF, the Chargers are back in the Playoffs. They can still move up to the 5 Seed – games vs Rams at home and at DEN. Both winnable games. I think they can go 11-6 and will jump BAL.
7. Dolphins (8-7) – MIA is going down fast. They play at the Patriots and home vs. the Jets. I don’t like this layout for them. It comes down to will the Jets get offense to overtake them with a win in SEA. I don’t trust NE, but that D will be tough on Sunday. If MIA does win on Sunday at NE, then they will scoreboard watch for NYJ at SEA. They could clinch with a win at NE and NYJ loss at SEA (MIA beat PIT head to head, so they own that tiebreaker).
8. Patriots (7-8) – NE holds the tiebreaker over the Jets, but that O is not great. They play at home vs. MIA in Week 17 and at BUF, which seems relevant in Week 18. They can make it in winning out or a win over MIA and another Fins loss vs. the Jets in Week 18 (if the Jets lose to SEA). A lot of scenarios in the AFC East.
9. Jets (7-8) – The Jets have been swooning, but road games at SEA (who is also reeling) and at MIA can get them in the playoffs. They need NE to beat MIA, too. A long shot, but still possible.
10. Titans (7-8) – The Titans have now lost 5 straight games, and will lose the division if the Jags beat HOU on Sunday. I love HC Mike Vrabel, but with Tannehill out, this team is not good enough. They can still make it in via the AFC South Title if they win in Week 18. This week is basically meaningless.
11. Steelers (7-8) – The Steelers are technically alive, but will need lots of help. Games at BAL then at home vs. CLE. Win both games, then watch the calamity. Now at 3-7 in the AFC that really makes it tough. They need the Fins to lose out, and Jets and Pats to lose one, plus win both games to qualify. Knowing Tomlin, this is actually possible.
12. Raiders (6-9) – Mathematically in the mix, but they are done. Saturday basically killed their chances, even with their 5-6 conference record

NFC

1. Eagles (13-2) – Eagles win one more, then they win the NFC East and need a SF loss to secure the 1 Seed in the NFC. Games at home versus NO and NYG should yield the 1 Seed.
2. Vikings (12-3) – Vikes have secured the NFC North already, so it’s the 1 Seed. MIN lost head to head against the Eagles, so they need the Eagles to lose out to move up. I don’t see it, but they can lose the 2 Seed with a loss and SF winning out. So, they need to beat the Pack at GB and Bears in Week 18 in Chicago. I don’t like it. I think the 49ers overtake the 2 Seed.
3. 49ers (11-4) – The 49ers are 9-2 in the NFC, so they have the edge over MIN for the 2 Seed and even PHI, if they win out and PHI loses out. I don’t see PHI losing both games, so wins at Raiders and home vs. AZ seem winnable to jump MIN.
4. Bucs (7-8) – A one game lead over CAR puts them in the playoffs, but on Sunday, they go to CAR. If they lose, then they need CAR to lose Week 18. So, a huge game in Week 17.
5. Cowboys (11-4) – The Boys are in the playoffs, but they showed they can score on the PHI D. They can win the NFC East with wins at TEN and at WAS, and PHI losing both games. That’s not happening, so they may rest players in Week 18.
6. Giants (8-6-1) – The Giants are pretenders, but they are a near lock for the playoffs. With one win, they are in: Week 17 vs. IND and Week 18 at PHI. If the Eagles win on Sunday, then they will sit their guys in Week 18. They are essentially in, and I’ll line up to bet against them in the playoffs.
7. Commanders (7-7-1) – WAS still has a shot with that tie on the record. They need to win at least one to have a shot, and 2 wins to secure their place. CLE and DAL at home (with DAL probably resting players in Week 18). I like their chances, but that O needs to score more points.
8. Seahawks (7-8) – It was fun ride with SEA, but losing 3 straight with Jets coming to town and then the Rams in Week 18, they need to win out or Commanders to lose out to make it.
9. Lions (7-8) – The Lions loss in Week 16 killed the love train for them. Now, they need help. Week 16 vs. CHI (that’s a win), then at GB. If they win out, and WAS loses one, then they are in. However, the same applies for……
10. Packers (7-8) – The Pack have a pulse. If they win at home vs. MIN in Week 17 and beat DET at home in Week 18, plus WAS loses one, then Aaron Rodgers is back in the playoffs. I think they can do it, but one game at a time.
11. Panthers (6-9) – They have a better shot at the NFC South than the wild card. A win at TB on Sunday will make it a win and in game in Week 18 at NO. I don’t need to review how they can get in as a Wild Card, as it is too unlikely.
12. Saints (6-9) – Very similar scenario to CAR. NO needs to win at PHI in Week 17 and at home vs. CAR in Week 18, plus 2 losses by TB in their case. Not likely. PHI will eliminate them on Sunday.

Marquee Games in Week 17

• Dolphins at Patriots (-3, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/1 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – I missed on MIA this weekend, and I won’t make that mistake again. Tua is out with another concussion, so Teddy Bridgewater steps in. NE will have a game plan to stymie the MIA passing game. If they can run the ball, maybe, but as long as NE can score 20 points, then they will win and cover -2.5.
• Jets at Seahawks (+1.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/1 at 3:05 PM Central on FOX – Both teams need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Both teams have now lost down the stretch (3 straight for SEA and 4 straight for NYJ). Something has to give here. I like the Jets D, as they are great, but who is playing QB? If White plays (early reports say he will give it a go with those ribs), I’m on the Jets for sure with the Cover -2. If it’s Wilson, then I like the Jets to win, but even with the short line, I would back the Seahawks +2. Ugh.
• Vikings at Packers (-3.5, 48 Total) – Sunday, 1/1 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Old school matchup that determines GB’s fate. The Pack have been able to get 3 straight wins and control their own destiny. The Vikings continue to win one score games, but that will end on Sunday. The Pack win this one and cover -3.
• Bills at Bengals (+1, 49.5 Total) – Monday, 1/2 at 7:30 PM Central on ESPN – Perhaps the biggest game of the year both on paper and in the standings. As reviewed above, this game will directly impact playoff seeding. The Bengals are red hot with 7 straight wins. I like the Bills a lot, and I think Allen will be a problem for CIN, however CIN is on a mission. They will win this game outright and cover +1.

The Final Countdown!!

Wegs