NFL: Week 14 Crunch Time

The NFL is racing towards the finish of the regular season and every game counts. Playoff lives are on the line every single match up.

Week 14 Recap

• Eagles Clinch Playoffs: PHI has had an incredible season, and their pummeling of the Giants, 48-22 pave the way to the 1 Seed in the NFC. Give HC Brian Daboll credit for making magic happen, but they were exposed against the talented Eagles. PHI is the first team to clinch a spot in the playoffs.
• Purdy Good: With Garappolo knocked out last week, the 49ers SB hopes took a hit. However, QB Brock Purdy played great against a tough TB D with some nice throws and even a rushing TD to destroy the Bucs, 35-7. Maybe we need to re-assess that downgrade.
• Bills Gut Out Win: December football doesn’t have to be pretty. In the elements – mostly rain, not snow, the Bills jumped out on the Jets. However, these Jets are different. QB Mike White took a beating, even leaving the game for a bit (also went to the hospital to check for issues with those ribs post-game), as the Jets pushed late. A big fumble by RB Michael Carter and a failed onside kick, gave the Bills the win and now they lead the AFC East (and AFC overall).
• Lions Have A Shot: 1-6 was not the start HC Dan Campbell wanted, but he has to be pleased with the Lions 4 out of 5 stretch. This time the Lions won a shootout against NFC North leader, MIN (who could have clinched the playoffs with a win). The 34-23 win gives them a real shot of the playoffs, as other teams (like the Giants and Seahawks) come back to the pack.
• Panthers Have A Shot: CAR fired a coach and has started 4 QBs, but Interim HC Steve Wilks needs some credit. Now with Sam Darnold under center, the O is scoring to match that salty D. With their 30-24 win at SEA, they have won 3 of 4 and are just 1 game back of TB (who they beat head to head earlier this year). They essentially control their own destiny in the NFC South and the playoffs, but the next 2 weeks will need to be more of the same (at home vs. PIT and DET).
• Chargers Bounce Back: When WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen play, the Chargers are tough to beat. QB Justin Herbert has quietly had a great year (3706 yards passing for 2nd in the NFL), but imagine if he had these 2 all year. The real credit in their 23-17 win over MIA was their Defense who besides a weird fumble rush TD and bomb to Tyreek Hill, the Fins were quiet on O.

Predictions: S/U 4-0, ATS 2-2 (The Bills failed me and always fade the Giants)

Wegs Index After Week 14

1. Eagles 12-1 (2.50 Index) – The Eagles flexed again, which may spur them from that mid-season swoon.
2. Cowboys 10-3 (4.50) – The Boys almost lost to the terrible Texans, but give them credit for not losing. Those letdowns are what gives bettors pause in their SB futures.
3. 49ers 9-4 (4.50) – SF’s D was elite, but the O looked good with Purdy. Big injury with WR Deebo Samuel – hopefully, he can return in the playoffs.
4. Bills 10-3 (4.83) – The Bills are winning uglier than early in the season. Is Allen hurt? Well, they get MIA this week, so the O needs to be firing on all cylinders.
5. Bengals 9-4 (8.83) – A drop in the Metrics for the Bengals, but they are still a complete bet on team at this point with Burrow playing great.
6. Ravens 9-4 (9.17) – The Ravens got after it on the ground against the Steelers to get the win. I still don’t think they fend off the Bengals, but Huntley played well on Sunday.
7. Chiefs 10-3 (11.33) – I love the Chiefs, but 28 points allowed against the Broncos? It’s about the D for me, and can we talk about the -5 TO Differential? They need to get tighter for the playoffs.
8. Patriots 6-6 (11.50) – The Pats were not stellar on MNF. Their O is lackluster, but the D can keep games close. They are in the playoffs at this point, but let’s see if they can hold off the Chargers and Jets.
9. Jets 7-6 (12.83) – The Jets are hanging tough, but their schedule doesn’t stop as the red hot Lions come to town.
10. Jags 5-8 (14.33) – Is this a misprint? Well, actually no, QB Trevor Lawrence has been lighting it up without turning the ball over, which gives them a glimmer of hope to take out the Titans for the AFC South.

Fantasy Advice – First Round

Very similar advice as last week. Forget the projections – start the guys you trust. You should have at least 2 elite performers if you are in this position, so they need to produce for you. The late season additions that were younger guys should keep producing. If you want to switch DSTs or TEs, I have no problem with that, but don’t over think this. Start your studs and guys who have produced down the stretch.

Good luck!

Marquee Match Ups in Week 15

Byes are over, and we have Saturday games this week for the first time.

• Dolphins at Bills (-7, 43.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/17 at 7:15 PM Central on NFLN – The prime time slot on Saturday gives us a huge AFC East match up. The Fins won down in MIA early in the season, so it’s a revenge spot for the Bills. If there is any weather concerns, then it’s hard not to like the Bills. Be sure to grab the -7 if you bet the Bills, but I think the Bills have been waiting for this payback and the Fins’ D isn’t good. I’ll take BUF to win and cover -7.
• Lions at Jets (PK, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/18 at Noon Central on CBS – The Lions are the NFL darlings now much like the Jets in October. So, who will take this one? Assuming QB Mike White is healthy for the Jets, I think that Jets D will finally slow down the red hot Lions to get this win and cover of the PK. However, if the Lions can win this one, they will definitely make the playoffs with their remaining schedule.
• Titans at Chargers (-3, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/18 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Titans have lost 3 straight now, and the Jags are closing ground. The Chargers looked good against the Fins, but the run D is such a concern, I can’t do it with them. TEN wins outright and covers the +3.
• Giants at Commanders 2 (-4.5, 40.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/18 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A rematch of the epic tie from just a week ago. I like the Commanders to crush the Giants this time. I respect their effort at home in Week 13, but with the bye, WAS should have righted some of those wrongs with the playoffs in sight. WAS wins and covers -4.5 (big number, but I’ll lay it).

Let’s get after it.

Wegs