NFL: Week 12 Was Pure Entertainment

The NFL does have a pattern. By December, we have the teams who are going for the Title, but there are still unlikely outcomes every single Sunday. In Week 12, there were games on Thanksgiving to MNF that were fun to watch.

Week 12 Recap

• Rodgers Is Done – I think we saw the last time Aaron Rodgers will lace it up for the Pack on Sunday Night. To his credit, Rodgers was answering the Eagles drive for drive early, but he got knocked out in the 2nd half. Then, the young gun, Jordan Love, came in and moved the ball in the 40-33 loss. The Pack are now 4-8 and virtually eliminated from playoff contention. I don’t see him playing again in 2022, but more importantly, I think the Rodgers show is over in Green Bay.
• Browns Best Brady – Tom Brady was undefeated when up by 7 with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter in his career. The Bucs didn’t score again in the game since 7 minutes remaining in the 3rd Quarter, and the Browns got a late score to tie and another score to win in OT, 23-17.
• Jags Show Something – The Jags have talent, no question, but after a hot start, they have found ways to lose. On Sunday, they did what they haven’t all year. QB Trevor Lawrence drove his team down the field for a game tying TD with 14 seconds, but not so fast, HC Doug Pederson opts to go for 2 and the win. Lawrence hit WR Zay Jones in the corner for the conversion and hand the Ravens yet another 4th Quarter loss, 28-27.
• Chargers Gamble and Win – The Chargers were down all of the 4th Quarter, but QB Justin Herbert moved his team down the field in the waning seconds for another game tying TD, but not so fast Take 2 with a 2 point conversion to win, 25-24. The Chargers keep their playoff hopes alive with this win.
• Raiders Not Done – I wrote off the Raiders after some terrible losses. RB Josh Jacobs completely destroyed the rested Seahawks with 229 yards on the ground (which makes him the league leading rusher) including an 86 yard scamper for the 40-34 win in OT (after Derek Carr drove the team down inside of 2 minutes to tie in regulation). The Raiders now put together back-to-back OT wins to not give in on the season.

Predictions: S/U 3-0, ATS 2-0-1 – Great week on predictions for once. Let’s keep up that trend.

Through 12 Weeks, I’m still doing pretty well in week to week preseason predictions – 56.67%. I only have 4 teams with exact records, though – BUF, CHI, PIT, and MIA (12.50%).

Disappointing Teams: Still mostly the same at this point, Rams, the biggest disappointment at 3-8 (I had 9-2); Green Bay not far behind at 4-8 (had them inverted at 8-4); Chargers are in the hunt at 6-5 (but way off 10-1); Bucs can still win the NFC South at 5-6 (9-2 prediction); the Colts have fallen back after the one game bounce back at 4-7-1 (10-2 predicted) and the Broncos are awful at 3-8 (6-5 prediction).

2022 Darlings: Seahawks may regress, but are 6-5 (2-9 Prediction); division leaders – Vikings are 9-2 (6-5) and Titans 7-4 (4-7) are exceeding expectations; while the Jets at 7-4 (continue to defy my 1-10 prediction); as are the Commanders with Heinicke at the helm 7-5 in the playoffs as of today (4-8 prediction); and finally the Falcons still have a shot in the NFC South at 5-7 (2-10 predicted).

I’ll hold off until the last week to review the final records and playoff predictions comparison.

Wegs Index Through 12 Weeks

1. Eagles (10-1, 3.67 Index) – They plowed over Green Bay, but their division still is tough for them to stay on top.
2. Bills (8-3, 5.83) – Not the AFC East leader with MIA, but the best team on paper still.
3. Cowboys (8-3, 5.83) – Certainly the team to watch, as the Offense has begun to catch up to that top D unit.
4. 49ers (7-4, 7.50) – Much like DAL, the Offense will determine how far they go, as they are the best D in the NFL.
5. Ravens (7-4, 9.17) – The Metrics are good, but their 4th Quarter failures will cost them, maybe even the division.
6. Bengals (7-4, 9.33) – The Bengals are better than the Ravens, but their schedule is much harder. The tough stretch continues Sunday vs KC.
7. Chiefs (9-2, 10.17) – Ho Hum, the Chiefs go undefeated in November again. They will get a real test versus CIN this week.
8. Jets (7-4, 11.17) – The QB Switch to Mike White paid off against the terrible Bears, but maybe that’s the spark they need to get in the playoffs.
9. Patriots (6-5, 11.67) – On the outside looking in at this point, but sneaky good on D yet again.
10. Dolphins (8-3, 12.17) – The last of 4 AFC East teams in the Top 10 mostly because their D is bad. Interested in the match up at SF this weekend.

Fantasy Playoff Advice – Part 2

We are in Week 13, which means you have 2 weeks to make the playoffs. Hopefully, you scored a stud in a trade or landed one of those young guns we talked about last week – See Christian Watson.

Advice is simple this week and next – Start Your Studs!!

Yeah, you may have a guy who’s projection is the same or better than your guy. However, this is not the time to get cute. Start the guy you should now – Davante Adams, Nick Chubb, Travis Kelce (I mean you did, of course). Take chances on your Flex or 2nd RB/WR, not your #1 guys.

Think about it this way, if you miss the playoffs playing some dude who you picked up on waivers in Week 10 over say Zeke Elliott or Dalvin Cook and the name guy goes off, can you live with yourself? I can’t. The cream rises to the top in Fantasy, so you should know who to start by now, and if you don’t – may the Fantasy Gods Bless Your Cursed Soul!!

Marquee Match Ups in Week 13

Byes: Cardinals and Panthers

Note, there are a ton of good games this week, so I had to pick just a few.

• Bills at Patriots (+4, 43.5 Total) – Thursday, 12/1 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – It was last season that on a windy Thursday night in Foxborough, the Pats beat the mighty Bills and made people think that BUF couldn’t win the AFC East. Well, that was 2021, and the Bills later destroyed the Pats in the playoffs. The Bills aren’t playing quite as well as they can, but their Offense still can do enough to beat these Pats. I do think the game rests in QB Josh Allen’s hands who has not been great over the past 3 weeks. I’m going to split the baby in this one with BUF winning and Pats covering +5.
• Commanders at Giants (+2.5, 40.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/4 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Somehow the schedule makers made these teams play twice in 3 weeks, and WAS has a bye between games – smh. Anyway, I love the Commanders. Taylor Heinicke has been just what the doctor ordered since Wentz got hurt. Their young D has finally played to potential. Now, the Giants still are solid, and this game will be a close one, but I trust WAS to continue their ways even on the road. WAS wins and cover -2.5 (I did like this number at -1.5 on Monday better).
• Dolphins at 49ers (-4, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/4 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – Wow, what a good match up. Classic great Offense versus elite Defense. The 49ers O has improved enough, but can Jimmy G focus in a game where they have to score. I think so. I do think the Dolphins have been playing weak teams lately, so the physical SF D and O Line should teach them a lesson. I don’t love the move up on this line, but I still think SF wins and covers -4.
• Chiefs at Bengals (+2.5, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/4 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Another incredible game here. This is a rematch from a December game in 2021 where the Bengals shocked the Chiefs (for the first time) to come from behind and win the game. The Bengals have been heating up, and their win at TEN shows they can win a tight one. I’m not sure who’s going to win this one, and KC definitely will have revenge on their mind with the AFC Title loss. I’m going with the Chiefs to win, but CIN to Cover +2.5 – I know l LAME…..

Let’s Do This!

Wegs