It’s about that time in the NFL when the best teams rise to the top, and it started in Week 11.

Week 11 Notes

Cowboys Explode in MIN
  • Bills Bounce Back – The Bills after 2 straight losses needed something. It took a Thundersnow Storm to relocate the game to DET. In the warm confines of Ford Field, the Bills were able to do something they hadn’t done since Week 6 – score a 2nd Half TD. They still had several drives stall for FGs, but BUF will take the 31-23 win over the reeling Browns.
  • Dallas Makes A Statement – The Vikings had been winning with 4th Quarter comebacks most of the season, including in Week 10 at BUF. Well, DAL didn’t give them that shot, as the Boys ran and threw all over the Vikings, 40-3. This is Dallas’s ceiling, let’s see if they can sustain this effort down the stretch.
  • Bengals Get Revenge – In Week 1, the Steelers stole a game at CIN with 6 TOs and an OT miracle, but even after trailing, 20-17 at the half, the Bengals didn’t relent. The Steelers could barely muster any offense in the 2nd half, and Joe Burrow tore apart the PIT D for 20 2nd half points and a 37-30 win.
  • Chiefs-Chargers Classic – It seems like every time these teams play now, it is an exciting one, and SNF did not disappoint. The Chargers were game for KC, as QB Justin Herbert hit Josh Palmer for his 2nd TD catch with 1:46 to play. That’s too much time for Patty Mahomes, as he guided the Chiefs down the field deftly and hit TE Travis Kelce on a crossing right for his 3rd Receiving TD of the game for the 30-27 win.

Predictions: S/U 1-2, ATS 1-2 – Jets lost a heartbreaker with a last second punt return TD by the Pats, and the Vikes, well, they got crushed.

Fantasy Advice at The Trade Deadline

Pickens Is Peaking For Your Playoff Run

This week marks the typical trade deadline in most leagues. So, if you are on the edge of contention or have a real shot at the playoffs, then this is the week to make it happen. The Waiver Wire is still open, so keep adding to your team (RB Samaje Perine comes to mind), but a good trade can solidify your team.

In Fantasy Football, consistency wins the regular season, but stars win in the playoffs. Your goal should always be to get a stud at every single slot in your lineup. As the Bye Weeks end, you are able to play your absolute best players with RB handcuffs and young upside guys on the rise on your bench. Also, it’s time to look at the schedule in the playoffs.

I’ll give you an example:

Team 1: Top 8 QB, Top 10 RB, RB 25, 2 Top 30 WRs, Top 10 TE and average DST – this team will win most of its games. Predictable results, probably a 7-6 record.

Team 2: Top 12 QB, Top 5 RB, Young RB who took the job, Top 5 WR, Rookie WR who is rising, Any TE and Top 6 DST – this team is ready to win the title. Top 5 RB and WR plus 2 risers at RB2 and WR2. I’ll take at lower tier QB and TE for the upside at the other 4 positions.

So, when targeting guys, look for those guys on the rise and only worry about depth at the RB1 position. The other exception would be to find someone with a 2nd QB who can make a run down the stretch with a great schedule.

It’s a little late to target WRs Christian Watson or George Pickens, but those are the WR guys I want down the stretch. RBs are tough this year, but look at guys on good teams like Jeff Wilson in MIA or Elijah Mitchell in SF as your RB2.

You can also package middle tier players together for 1 Stud. Guys you have to love at this point – DAL RB Tony Pollard, Joe Burrow at QB in CIN and WR Justin Jefferson in MIN.

Wegs Index Through Week 11

Burrow Is Doing It Again
  1. Eagles (9-1, 3.67 Index) – The Eagles are hitting a slump. Yes, they won in IND, but they trailed again in the 2nd half. This time 16-3 in the 4th Quarter. They need to find a way to throw the ball.
  2. Cowboys (7-3, 6.00) – The demolition of the Vikings is boosting their metrics a lot here. I do think the only thing that can stop this team is Mike McCarthy.
  3. Bills (7-3, 6.50) – The Bills are sliding in the metrics, but they will get things right.
  4. Bengals (6-4, 8.33) – The Bengals D showed their ceiling in the 2nd half at PIT, but they need to do it a full game against good teams.
  5. 49ers (5-4, 8.33) – The 49ers finally used all the weapons to beat a weakened opponent in AZ.
  6. Ravens (7-3, 9.33) – The Ravens, ho hum, are on top of the AFC North with an easy schedule down the stretch.
  7. Chiefs (8-2, 11.83) – The Chiefs look great on Offense, even Pacheco adds to the rushing attack, but can that D show up against top offenses?
  8. Patriots (6-4, 12.50) – The quiet Pats have righted their ship. They have a limited ceiling, but in the right game script, they are tough.
  9. Seahawks (6-4, 13.00) – The Seahawks will need to do it against the NFC West down the stretch. Not sure they can.
  10. Bucs (5-5, 13.17) – The Bucs just need the Offense to go along with that Top 5 Scoring D. 27th in Points Scored? TB12 will turn it up.

Marquee Games in Week 12

With Thanksgiving giving us 3 games, everyone is playing in Week 12.

Rodgers Last Stand?
  • Giants at Cowboys (-9, 44.5 Total) – Thursday, 11/24 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – This is a really important game in both the NFC and NFC East. The Giants have overachieved all season, and the Lions exposed them in Week 11. The Boys looked like world beaters at MIN, but this line is too big for me. I like the Cowboys to win the game, but I need to take the Giants +9.
  • Bengals at Titans (+1.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/27 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – This is a rematch of the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs last year. The Bengals are just hitting their stride now on Offense, but the Mixon injury does limit them. The Titans have defied the oddsmakers all year. I do think HC Mike Vrabel is the best, maybe even Coach of the Year, but at some point the metrics will be right. The Bengals should be favored by more, but with Vrabel, I guess it’s just right. I’ll take CIN to win and Cover -1.5.
  • Packers at Eagles (-7, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/27 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – I struggled to pick a 3rd game as the Packers are garbage, but could this be Aaron Rodgers last start as a Packer? I think so. If the Pack lose this one, they would fall to 4-8 and 3-5 in the NFC. I think it is a must win for GB, so maybe we can see some fireworks from Rodgers. I don’t think they win,as the Eagles even in their recent struggles still play good Defense. Plus, the Packers struggle to stop the run, the Eagles’ strength. I’ll stick with PHI to win, but not cover -7.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.