As we enter into the 2nd half of the season, the parity of the League becomes even more apparent.

Week 10 Notes

Bills Blow It Vs MIN
  • Vikes Come Back: The Bills had a lot of drama during the week with QB Josh Allen and his elbow injury. Then, come game time, it was business as usual up 27-10 with 1:56 left in the 3rd Quarter, but then the wheels fell off. A long TD by RB Dalvin Cook, a late drive in the 4th Quarter to cut to 4 with 4:34, and then a goal line stand followed by a Josh Allen fumble in the end zone to take the lead with 41 seconds to play. The Bills tied it in regulation, but in OT, the Vikes got on the board with a FG, but Allen putting the Bills in the red zone took an unnecessary chance throwing a game ending INT, 33-30 in OT. The Vikings move to 8-1, and the Bills lose 2 straight without a TD in the 2nd half for 4 weeks.
  • Lions Win 2 Straight: The Lions did what they couldn’t all season. This time down 24-10 late in the 4th Quarter, they flipped the script on the now high octane Bears. Rushing TD, Pick 6, and a game winning TD (and Extra Point) late got the Lions a big road win and under 40 degree weather for QB Jared Goff, 31-30.
  • Saturday Wins on Sunday: The Inconsequential Bowl with Colts at Raiders pitted the newly minted Head Coach Jeff Saturday against the declining Raiders. QB Matt Ryan back in the saddle led the Colts to a big road win, 25-20.
  • Pack Back on Track: 5 straight losses at home down 28-14 with 2:47 left in the 3rd Quarter, that’s all the Pack needed. QB Aaron Rodgers found his rookie WR Christian Watson not once, twice, but three times in the game (once in the first half) to push the game to OT. K Mason Crosby kicked the game winning FG to give Green Bay the win, 31-28 in OT.
  • Commanders Take Out Eagles: Philly off to an 8-0 start, favored by 11 points at home looked to be 9-0, but the Commanders had won 3 of 4 (blowing the game at home versus MIN). That #2 Run D did it’s job in holding the Eagles to just 94 yards on the ground. With timely play by QB Taylor Heinicke and 152 yards rushing, WAS gets a huge win, 32-21.

Predictions: S/U 1-3, ATS 2-2 – the NFL is killing me this year.

Wegs Index in Week 11

Eagles Drop Their First One
  1. Eagles (8-1, 3.33 Index) – The Eagles looked mortal on MNF. That Passing Offense needs to improve down the stretch.
  2. Bills (6-3, 5.50) – The Bills lack of scoring the 2nd half has killed them, plus TO Differential is down to 19th (+1).
  3. Bengals (5-4, 8.33) – The Bengals avoid the carnage on Bye to stay at #3.
  4. Cowboys (6-3, 9.33) – The Boys missed a golden opportunity to gain on the Eagles losing. Their man to man pass D is suspect at best, see Christian Watson.
  5. Ravens (6-3, 10.17) – The Ravens may be able to overcome their early season difficulties in the 2nd half of the season.
  6. 49ers (5-4, 11.00) – The SF Offense still is missing something, but the D is healthier going into the last 8 weeks.
  7. Chiefs (7-2, 11.33) – The Chiefs find themselves back as the 1 Seed with the BUF losses, plus -4 TO Differential is just too much.
  8. Vikings (8-1, 12.00) – Now tied for the best record in the NFL, the Vikings keep coming back in the 4th Quarter for wins.
  9. Jets (6-3, 12.50) – Can the Jets finally best the Patriots? Not likely.
  10. Bucs (5-5, 12.83) – Just like that, the Bucs are leading the NFC South again led by the D. With 2 straight wins since TB12’s divorce, maybe the Bucs are a team to bet on after all.

Waiver Wire Targets (Last Week)

Christian Watson Breaks Out
  • QB, Kenny Pickett (PIT) – Yep, I’m back on this guy. He has a tough match up in CIN this week, but he has been rushing a lot and his schedule the following 4 weeks is favorable. I like him if you are in a pinch.
  • WR, Christian Watson (GB) – The Pack finally got this rookie WR going with an incredible game. 3 TDs from 4 catches on 8 targets should win Rodgers’ trust.
  • TE, Foster Moreau (LVR) – The Raiders don’t have Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow, so somebody has to catch those balls. He did score a TD this past week. I like his next 2 match ups, too.
  • DST, Commanders (WAS) – The Commanders have quietly been playing great D. Not just what they did against the Eagles, but with match ups versus HOU, ATL and the Giants – I like that run.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 11

Can Wilson Do It?
  • Jets at Patriots (-3, 38 Total) – Sunday, 11/20 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Coach Bill Belichick owns young QBs, and the Jets’ Zach Wilson has struggled versus them repeatedly. Well, now it’s a battle for first place. The Jets D has been playing great, so the Total seems right here. I like the Jets here, as crazy as it may seem. Jets win and Cover +3.
  • Cowboys at Vikings (+1.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/20 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Vikings have been the luckiest team in the NFL to date. The D is 29th in Yards Against, but they have a top WR who was unguardable in Justin Jefferson. So, as much as the metrics tell me that the Cowboys are better than the Vikings, I can’t do it. MIN wins this one and covers the +1.5.
  • Chiefs at Chargers (+5.5, 50 Total) – Sunday, 11/20 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Chiefs are who we thought they were, the top team in the AFC. The Chargers are still hurting, but it is a must win for the Chargers. I like them in this one to Cover the +5.5, but the Chiefs should get the win.

Let’s see how Week 11 goes.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.