NFL: Week 7 Chaos Continues

The NFL is hard to predict, but Week 7 shows how ridiculous it can be.

Week 7 Recap Notes

• Packers Done? – Aaron Rodgers doesn’t lose 3 straight games a lot in his career, but it’s 2022 and what can be said. The Packers went to WAS who looked god awful against my Bears in Week 6, but a switch at QB to Taylor Heinicke was all the Commanders needed to best the Pack, 23-21. The Pack are 3-4 looking for answers.
• Bucs Done? – Not just Rodgers was awful on Sunday, the Bucs and TB12 look uninspired against a dismal CAR team who had just traded RB Christian McCaffery to SF. They didn’t need him in their throttling of the Bucs, 21-3. QB PJ Walker gets the big win. I know, it’s crazy.
• Seahawks Are Ballin’ – Apparently, the issue with in SEA the last couple years was Russell Wilson, as the Seahawks Offense under Geno Smith continues to dazzle. This time at the Chargers who were solid favorites en route to a 37-23 and are now 4-3.
• Chiefs Punk SF – The SF D was vaunted going into this game, but the Chiefs put up 529 yards on 58 plays for 9.1 Yards Per Play. Sure, Christian McCaffery looked good at times, but that D had no answer for all the 3rd down plays Andy Reid and company dialed up in the 44-23 win.
• Bears Stop Bill – On MNF, Coach Bill Belichick had a chance to pass Papa Bear Halas on the all time win list, but the Bears played their best game, especially on Offense, as QB Justin Fields hit timely passes and ran all over the Pats D for the 33-14 win.

Week 6 Picks: S/U 1-2, ATS 1-2 – way off on KC and IND

Wegs Index for Week 8

Here is the Index, which has some big change after Week 7.

1. Bills (5-1, 2.00 Index) – Bills will come of the Bye still the top rated team – 1st in Yards, 2nd in Scoring, 1st in Yards Against and Points Against, 1st in Scoring Margin and 3rd in TO Margin, and they get the Pack.
2. Eagles (6-0, 3.33) – Philly not only has the Phillies, but the top NFC team., Top 5 or better in every category, and +12 in TO Margin.
3. Bengals (4-3, 9.50) – The Bengals shoot up the ranks with their offensive explosion, but still only 8th in Scoring.
4. Cowboys (5-2, 11.00) – The Boys have Dak back, but the running attack was more impressive on Sunday. Plus the 2nd best Scoring D and TO Differential helps (+6).
5. Jags (2-5, 11.67) – Somehow the metrics love the Jags despite the losses piling up. I expect their descent to continue out of the Top 10 soon enough.
6. Chiefs (5-2, 11.83) – When metrics defy the record, as the Chiefs are 1st in Scoring and 2nd in Yards Gained, but in the mid-20s on D.
7. Jets (5-2, 12.50) – The Jets will struggle with the loss of Rookie RB Breece Hall and OG Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season, so that 21st Ranked Offense will need help. The trade for RB James Robinson may help.
8. Ravens (4-3, 12.67) – BAL finally held a lead, but the 23rd Yards Against and 21st Points Against will catch up to them.
9. Giants (6-1, 13.00) – The Giants are defying all odds with their record, but 6th in Points Against and TO Differential (+3) is how they are getting it done.
10. Bucs (3-4, 13.33) – The Bucs are reeling, but it is hard to say if it is coaching, off the field issues or just age. The TNF game versus BAL will show us a lot.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups for Week 8

• QB Streamer, Sam Ehlinger (IND) – He is now the proclaimed starter for the Colts. It’s a run heavy team, but a clear starter at this point should help your team.
• RB, Michael Carter, (NYJ) – Only rostered in 62% of leagues, Carter is the starter now for the Jets. James Robinson (95% rostered) will be the thumper, but Carter can make a lot of plays for the improved Jets.
• WR, Marquise Goodwin (SEA) – With DK Metcalf on the shelf for a time, Goodwin had a big 2 TD game in Week 6, so it seems natural to get him the ball more in this active offense.
• DST Streamer, Jags (JAC) – I’ll keep lining up against the Broncos until further notice. The Jags have been stingy, and regardless of who starts, the Broncos don’t score.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 8

• Ravens at Bucs (-1, 45.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/27 at 7:15 PM on Amazon – Two teams that had high hopes. The Bucs are now 3-4 and look out of sorts, and the Ravens have greatly disappointed especially with late game meltdowns. I can’t see the Bucs losing 3 straight, so give me the Bucs S/U and the line has flipped to them -1 to Cover.
• Giants at Seahawks (-3, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/30 at 3:25 PM on FOX – I know, it’s a surprising marquee game, but SEA is 4-3 (leading the NFC West) and NYG are 6-1. This is an early playoff caliber game. The Giants have been able to keep games close and grind out wins, while SEA’s offense has been impressive against almost everyone. This may be the hardest one to pick, but I’ll stick with the Giants to defy the odds to win and cover the +3.
• 49ers at Rams (+1.5, 43 Total) – Sunday, 10/30 at 3:25 PM FOX – Part 2 of this season series, and the 49ers are coming off an embarrassing effort at the hands of KC. They have owned this rivalry since McVay took over in LA. Can Shanahan do it again? I’m going to say he does with the win and cover -1.5.
• Packers at Bills (-10.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/30 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Pack are reeling, and normally, I’d look for a vintage Rodgers effort on SNF. However, the Bills are a different breed. There’s no doubt the Bills are winning this game, and I’ll lay the points (-10.5).

Let’s do it again.

Wegs