NFL: Week 4 Recap – First Quarter in the Books

The NFL is a little different now with 18 Weeks and 17 regular season games per team, however with 4 games in the books for everyone, we have some data to work off of.

Week 4 Recap

• Jets Win, But PIT Look Ahead – The Jets showed some grit in coming back from a 20-10 deficit to win 24-20, but the real story is HC Mike Tomlin turned to rookie QB Kenny Pickett in the 2nd half. Pickett was 10-13 with 3 INTs and 120 yards, but 2 rushing TDs and he took shots down the field. PIT will be better on Offense with Pickett under center.
• Bills Comeback Versus Ravens – The Ravens have been a 1st half team this year, and led the Bills 20-3 with 3:44 left in the 1st half. The Bills got a late 1st half TD, and the Ravens were held scoreless in the 2nd half including a questionable 4th down decision to not kick the FG to go up. The Bills drove down to kick the game winning FG as time expired and won 23-20.
• The Pack Survive – For those Survivor Poolsters, the Packers were the overwhelmingly popular pick against the Patriots and 2nd stringer, Brian Hoyer. Then, after leading 3-0, Hoyer was knocked out of the game, and enter rookie 4th Round QB, Bailey Zappe out of Western Kentucky. Zappe led the offense capably to 21 more points, as the Packers continued to give up massive rushing totals – 167 yards. The Packers were able to get a late drive in OT to win, 27-24, but that was close.
• Chiefs Get Revenge – In the Super Bowl just a season ago, the Bucs dismantled the high powered Chiefs. On Sunday night, QB Patrick Mahomes lit up the Bucs D and the Chiefs ran all over the top ranked Rush D for 189 yards and 2 rushing TDs en route to a 41-31 victory.
• 49ers Still Own the Rams – HC Kyle Shanahan’s record versus Sean McVay, and MNF was no different. Not a stellar game by either offense, but the Rams were held to just 3 FGs in the game as the 49ers won easily, 24-9.

Picks Recap: S/U 3-1, ATS 1-3.

First Quarter Picks Recap

Overall, preseason picks are 38-64 for 59.38%. I have 6 teams with the exact records: PHI (4-0), DAL (3-1) SF (2-2), CLE (2-2), TEN (2-2), and WAS (1-3). All teams are within one game of predictions except for:

Surprise Teams include: ATL (2-2 vs. 0-4), NYJ (2-2 vs. 0-4), JAC (2-2 vs. 0-4),

Disappointments include: LAR (2-2 vs. 4-0) and IND (1-2-1 vs. 4-0).

Wegs Index After 4 Weeks

From now on, each week, I’ll recap the top teams based on the Wegs Index, which is an average ranking based on the following categories: Points Scored, Points Against, Yards Gained, Yards Against, Point Differential and Turnover Differential. The lower the score, the better the team, in theory.

Top 10 Teams per the Wegs Index

1. Bills (3-1, 3.33 Index) – Bills are the best team right now by a fraction with every category in the Top 6 – 1st in Yards Against and Point Differential.
2. Eagles (4-0, 3.83 Index) – The Eagles have emerged as the top NFC team (+300 to win the NFC) have been great. Top 9 in every category with 1st in Turnover Margin and 2nd in Yards Gained.
3. Bucs (2-2, 8.83 Index) – The Bucs D was eviscerated by the Chiefs, but they still ride the best Points Against in the League and 2nd in Point Differential.
4. Jags (2-2, 9.00 Index) – The real surprise of the 1st Quarter, as HC Doug Pedersen’s team has played well, and even led at PHI in Week 4. Let’s see if they can sustain this effort all season, as they are 4th in Point Differential and 6th in Scoring.
5. Browns (2-2, 9.33 Index) – CLE has fared pretty well without Deshaun Watson, and their Offense is 4th in Yards Gained and 6th in Points Scored so far. If they can figure out a way to hold leads, then they can challenge for the AFC North.
6. Chiefs (3-1, 10.00 Index) – The Chiefs have had 2 big offensive games putting them at 2nd in Scoring, but they are still 20th in Points Against or they would be higher ranked.
7. Bengals (2-2, 10.50 Index) – The Bengals have righted the ship after a slow start. No real stand out in any areas, but 16th or higher in every category.
8. 49ers (2-2, 11.33 Index) – SF is led by their D who is 1st in Yards Against and 2nd in Points Against. The main issue they are 27th in Scoring.
9. Ravens (2-2, 13.00 Index) – The Ravens 2nd half D has been awful, as theya re 30th in Yards Against. The Offense is 3rd in Scoring and 8th in Scoring Differential. Maybe HC Harbaugh can fix this, so they can win more games.
10. Packers (3-1, 13.33 Index) – The Pack bounce back after a terrible Week 1, and mostly on D, as they are 6th in Yards Against, 7th in Points Against, but that Run D is troublesome. Plus, QB Aaron Rodgers has turned the ball over with a -3 Turnover Differential.

Week 5 Waiver Wire Targets

• QB, Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) – Tua is out at least one game and probably more. Bridgewater is not a big armed guy, but with the WR speed he will be as good as anyone. He gets the Jets in Week 5.
• RB, Tyler Algiers (ATL) – With Cordoralle Patterson out, the Rookie RB has a chance to jump into a big role. He should get plenty of run, as ATL does not really throw the ball.
• RB, Rachaad White (TB) – Another rookie runner who is getting involved even with a veteran ahead of him in Fornette with 5 targets and a red zone carry for a TD.
• WR, Romeo Doubs (GB) – Doubs was a target of mine in the Draft (which I dropped stupidly), and he is now getting explosive targets. He was just a whisker away from 2 TDs against the Pats, and I only see his role increasing.
• WR, George Pickens (PIT) – Finally, the Steelers see Mitch for what he is, not a good QB. Kenny Pickett increases Pickens value (along with the other PIT targets). Pickens immediately got 8 targets leading to 6 catches and 106 yards. More to come.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 5

• Chargers at Browns (+3, 48 Total) – Sunday, 10/9 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Browns have been solid so far, and 2 late game collapses have cost them a perfect record. The Chargers have been an enigma so far. I’m very surprised at this line, as the wrong team is favored here. So, Browns win this one and cover.
• Cowboys at Rams (-4.5, 43 Total) – Sunday, 10/9 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – Cowboys’ Cooper Rush is 4-0 as a Starter and ATS. The Cowboys D is just nasty, and I don’t like the way the Rams O has looked so far. I won’t pick the Cowboys to win, but give me the +4.5 in this one for the Boys.
• Bengals at Ravens (-3, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/9 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A battle for AFC North supremacy in Baltimore, but neither team is playing great. The Ravens probably should be 4-0, but guess what, their D can’t get stops late in games. I have to go with the Bengals to cover in this one. The Road Dog theory in full effect, and I think they win outright, too.
• Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 51 Total) – Monday, 10/10 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – This game had a lot more sizzle before the season started, as the Raiders have been bad until Sunday. The Gruden-led Raiders always gave the Chiefs fits, but Andy Reid seems like he’s on a mission with Mahomes. I like that the Chiefs are actually running the ball with Edwards-Helaire and Pacheco. The Chiefs win and cover the -7.

Let’s do this in Week 5.

Wegs