The NFL is a week to week league, but after 3 weeks, we may be seeing something to follow.

Week 3 Notes

Trevor Lawrence Is Playing To His Potential
  • Jags Are Actually Good – In Week 2, I really thought it was just the Colts’ Jacksonville jinx, but no, apparently HC Doug Pedersen is coaching his ass off using QB Trevor Lawrence’s skills and RBs Travis Etienne and James Robinson effort. The Jags went out to play the Chargers, and when QB Justin Herbert was ruled IN, the money went back on the Bolts. Well, the Jags completely dominated them on both sides of the ball winning 38-10. The Jags have outscored their opponents 81-24 in their last 10 Quarters.
  • Eagles Are Legit – The hype continues to grow as the Eagles have destroyed their 2nd straight opponent, this time WAS who despite holding the Eagles scoreless in the 2nd half, still lost 24-8. The Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vaulting into the MVP conversation.
  • Fins Will Not Continue This – I’ll give MIA credit for the best comeback of the year in Week 2 and beating the Super Bowl favorites in Week 3 in BUF. However, they are defying every metric possible. In Week 2, they gave up massive yards early to come back. In Week 3, they were outgained (497-212 in yards), outpossessed (40:40 to 19:20 in time) and outplayed (90-39 in plays). How did they win? Well, the goal line stand and converting on the chances they did have 3 for 3 in the Red Zone for TDs. This cannot last.
  • Lamar Jackson Is The MVP – Look for some reason, no one is giving Lamar credit, but he has now rushed for over 100 yards in back to back games – he’s 5th in the NFL in rushing and leads the NFL in TD passes.
  • Bucs are a Defensive Team – TB12 may be struggling to put up the numbers with all the WRs out, but the Bucs are balling on D. Through 3 games, TB has only given up 27 points total or just 9 points per game. If they can put some offense together, then they will be a force.

Picks Review: Tough week. 0-4 S/U, 1-3 ATS. A lot of close ones, but the results are the results.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups for Week 4

Williams Will Get Plenty of Run in Swift’s Absence
  • RB, Jamal Williams (DET) – A week too late here, but Williams is the TD vulture in DET. More importantly, the Lions have scored a lot of points. Plus, D’Andre Swift is injured yet again with reports putting him out until the Week 6 bye. He will be a top add this week.
  • RB, Khalil Herbert (CHI) – David Montgomery went down on Sunday, and Herbert erupted for 157 yards rushing and 2 TDs. The Bears aren’t great, but the Giants just gave up over 170 yards on MNF. Herbert is a starter.
  • WR, Russell Gage (TB) – With Mike Evans out, Gage delivered getting 13 targets translating into 12 catches, 87 yards and a TD. Brady clearly had some trust in him, which bodes well even if Evans returns. Once Godwin is back, then you can drop him, but with some good match ups coming, Gage should get to a WR2/3 level.
  • TE, Jelani Woods (IND) – Woods had his first 2 catches of his career on Sunday against KC, both were TDs. This year TE is awful, so I’ll take a shot on a guy who is a red zone target. Plus, Matty Ice has been known to target the TE a lot.

Marquee Match Ups in Week 4

Lamar Has A Chance For Some Revenge vs. BUF
  • Jags at Eagles (-6.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/2 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – I know, I know, it’s the Jags. Well, they have won in impressive fashion two weeks in a row. The Eagles look like NFC champs, but don’t think that HC Doug Pedersen will not try his best to stick it to the Eagles for letting him go. I’ll take the Eagles to win the game, but the Jags will cover the +6.5.
  • Bills at Ravens (+3.5, 52 Total) – Sunday, 10/2 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – What a great match up again for the Bills. Their schedule is quite the gauntlet. Here’s an interesting fact. The Bills are 0-7 in one score games since the start of 2021. Can the Ravens keep it close? I’m a little worried that the BAL D is not very good, but with S Michah Hyde out and other injuries on the BUF D, I like the Ravens in this one to win and cover.
  • Chiefs at Bucs (+2.5, 45 Total) – Sunday, 10/2 at 7:20 PM on NBC – The Chiefs got shutdown in the 2nd half by IND, an inferior D. Maybe TB can’t score anymore, but I trust the D in TB. I can’t lay those points with KC, so KC may win the game, but they will not cover that number.
  • Rams at 49ers (-2.5, 42.5 Total) – Monday, 10/3 at 7:15 PM on ESPN – A rematch of the NFC Title Game last year. With Jimmy G back at the helm for SF, it is a true rematch, even if Jimmy looked terrible on SNF at DEN. The Rams have bounced back after getting embarrassed on Opening Night. I think this is a grudge match yet again. SF will win and cover -2.5, though.

Enjoy Week 4.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.